Runners Left Stranded

What happened to Lin? Is he injured? How serious?

Those of you who can read Japanese should keep an eye on the Japanese Pro Yakyu News forum. This article says that he's got an inflammation below the ridge of his left shoulder (if I'm reading that right - I'm not 100% sure). The article says that Lin is going to rest for about a week and they'll make a decision about further action after that.

I guess Christopher got his wish, Lin is hurt. Be careful what you wish for.

Well I would rather he was still playing, but if he's going to be out it should be for an injury - unlike Yan.

And Lin has now been deactivated. One does wonder about the logic of this move - your second highest RBI count is removed from the team. One hopes he picked up an injury rather than this as an example of Okada whimsy.

Hmmm. This thread seems to have gone in an unintended direction. Don't worry about Lin; he'll be back.

But, does no-one find 29 stranded base runners (fourteen in scoring position) and two wasted two-out bases-loaded situations outrageous?

Meanwhile, with reference to this thread, not one of the above-mentioned three games was a quality start, and Hanshin's record over those games was 0-2-1.

Incidentally, Hanshin's record for August:

• In games featuring quality Hanshin starts: 8-4-1
• In games not featuring quality Hanshin starts: 5-6-1

Hanshin has possibly been luckiest when Ryan Vogelson has pitched during that time (two non-quality starts resulted in wins), and unluckiest when Shimoyanagi started (two quality starts resulted in losses).

They had a run like this back in May when they left masses of runners on base. I think the coaches are the problem (cue Mijow) and I have yet to be wholly convinced by Hirosawa (batting coach). This has basically been a problem all season, and if you compare RBI rates (say Carp and Tigers) you can see the difference. However, the Tigers are in third and Carp are in sixth, so maybe they are doing something right.

I think this has been the story all season. As Christopher says, they had a particularly bad run back in May as well.

I suppose one could blame the coaches, but the players are the ones not pulling the trigger. And to have stranded runners you've got to get on base to start with. So to be consistent I suppose you've got to "blame" the coaches for this as well.

At the moment, though, I'm more concerned about the bonehead errors the players keep on making. Oh, sorry, it's those incompetent coaches again.

The errors certainly are boneheaded - there was another one last night by Sekimoto that cost a run and led to a second one. But maybe, just maybe, if these things are happening constantly it might be appropriate for the coaching team to step in and provide some proactive guidance.

LOL - Still going on about the coaches are you, Christopher? How do you know for certain that the coaches have had nothing whatsoever to do with the team's 22-11 record since the All-Star break? Maybe they are being proactive.

As I said, maybe they're doing something right, but I'd be more convinced if the unnecessary error count was reduced.

I agree - there's always room for improvement.

But just to clarify: you don't have any inside information then - you feel that the coaches may be doing their jobs, but you're not entirely convinced because a couple of players have been committing errors. OK - I understand now.

No, I never claimed to (have inside information that is). However, Yan's balk problem was not fixed and that would be a coaching issue - the coaches should have worked with him to show him how to pitch in Japan and continued to work with him.

This sort of thing is what causes me to have doubts, but the error problem in recent games does cause concern (Katsuragi, Sheets, Fujimoto, Sekimoto, Yano, etc). It is more than a couple of players. Presumably, we can assume that Tigers are now in with a good shot at the pennant in which case the errors become significant (losing a series with the Dragons and the recent tied series with the Carp).

- I never claimed to ... have inside information...

Tongue in cheek, Christopher, tongue in cheek.

But to try and pin you down here, if I understand you correctly, you base your opinion of the coaches on Yan's balk problem. Fine. But do you have evidence that the coaches haven't actually been working with him to resolve this issue? The fact that it hasn't been resolved doesn't mean they haven't been working on it.

And what about the fielding errors? Are you saying the coaches aren't working to try and improve things? Is it a matter of your remaining unconvinced until you see the actual welts and bruises from the whippings?

I imagine they'll never satisfy you. The team goes 23-11 since the All-Star break and you want to focus on a run of errors. Sure, in their last 10 games they've committed 11 errors, and they're 5-4-1 in that period. But in the 10 games before that they only committed 5 errors, with a record of 6-4. So it could be argued that the errors are only having a marginal impact on whether the team wins or not.

If I were coaching the Tigers, I'd be reminding them to be careful, but what else can you do at this stage in the season? I certainly wouldn't be extending fielding practice too much in this heat. Frankly I'd rather spend my time focusing on the hitting, as this has more impact. But of course that's just my opinion. Others are free to disagree.

Well, Yan was chosen because he was an obvious example, but to cite other examples we have the inability to drive runners in (all season), the defensive errors (recent), and the inconsistency of the pitching. Given what happened with Yan I would also say that there was no attempt to resolve the issue or to reconcile him to it.

I see the coaching team as far too reactive in this respect. Of course, as you say, they have been winning and I suppose we can disregard the errors on those grounds, but in the current situation is that wise? We are half a game off the Dragons and two games off the Giants. Under those circumstances errors become very important. We actually could have been second if we hadn't blown the last series against the Carp due to the errors.

You're right to say that hitting is important, but then so is defense. In this tight situation things which normally we could disregard assume more significance. I don't see any evidence that the coaches are worrying too much about these problems (maybe I am doing them a disservice), but with the remaining series against the Dragons and Giants likely to be vital, I would like to see more evidence that problems are being addressed.

- I would like to see more evidence that problems are being addressed.

I understand what you're saying, but do you have any actual evidence that the specific problems are not being addressed? From what I know of the game, I'm sure the coaches are grappling with these very problems on a daily basis. Do you know for certain that the problems are being ignored? Please share your special knowledge with us.

- We actually could have been second if we hadn't blown the last series against the Carp due to the errors.

And we could have been leading the league by now if any number of things had happened during the season. What's your point? That no errors at all are acceptable? Or only errors that don't blow games? That pitchers must all have ERAs under 3.00? That under no circumstances batters are to strike out with the bases loaded? Come on, get real. Perfection does not exist in baseball. They're moving up the league. Be patient. I told you there would be reversals. It's all part of the game.

Would you two guys get a room or something, please?

Meanwhile, back on the OT, I just want to edit this:

Incidentally, Hanshin's record for August:

• In games featuring quality Hanshin starts: 8-4-1
• In games not featuring quality Hanshin starts: 5-6-1

As it was written two games before the Tigers' August schedule ended and "record for August" could be misconstrued as meaning the whole month.

As it turned out, in August, the Tigers were 9-4-1 in games featuring quality Hanshin starts, and 6-6-1 in games not featuring quality Hanshin starts.

But sheesh, that run of - what was it? - four or five games in the middle of August was very frustrating. Sort of reminiscent of the old Yokohama fun-zumari dasen.

Incidentally, am I the only one with a sneaking suspicion that people like Sakurai, Katsuragi, and Lin are playing Sheets out of a contract for 2008?

What do you attribute the problem to then?

Myself, I think the coaching has been a problem and too reactive. This manifests itself throughout the whole range of activities, not just in runners left on base (though this is a problem). Mijow thinks that the coaching is not so much of a problem and that we are doing as well as we can. This is what we are discussing - it is related to the topic.

The runners left on base certainly can't just be attributed to Andy Sheets or Toritani. Other players have blown opportunities as well (Kanemoto most notably). I am more worried about the basic errors than runners left on base as the winning ratio is quite nice. A positive shi-no-rodo as well (even with the hiccup in the middle of August) shows that runners left on base is not so serious.

As for Sheets, I suspect that he will be back next year (Spencer was given another chance) - Okada is showing every sign of preferring Sekimoto at second and someone is needed at third.

Sorry Torakichi, Christopher and I tend to hijack these threads, don't we? Oh well, you don't have to read our posts. Just ignore us.

You're right of course - it is frustrating when they go through these rough patches - be it runners left stranded, errors, lack of quality starts, whatever. But I just like to take the long view - if you consider the last couple of years, the Tigers have been very competitive. They either start off with a burst at the beginning of the season, or end it with a run for the pennant. As Earl Weaver would say, they've got deep depth. The fact that they could come up with these guys to fill the void left by the slumps and injuries of the regulars really says a lot for the resilience of the club, and - although this isn't a popular view - the legacy of Okada when he managed the ni-gun team. People often forget how successful he was down there.

But I don't know that Sheets has been that bad, at least not enough to be played out of a job. He's adapted reasonably well to third base and gives them some flexibility with defensive shuffles. Unless he falls in a heap over the next couple of weeks I think he'll still be around in 2008.

- What do you attribute the problem to then?

No no, I don't think there is a problem. I just found those numbers (i.e., runners on base) to be incredible over such a short period. I guess I should have been clearer: I wasn't trying to make any point, just share some interesting(?) stats.

- But I don't know that Sheets has been that bad.

You're right, of course. But with Lin, Sakurai, et al doing well, I wondered whether Sheets might be squeezed out of the starting line-up come next season. Still, Sheets has 6 RBIs over the past few nights since the OP in this thread, so ya' never know.

Sure, but you know, competition has a tendency to concentrate the mind, so maybe those 6 RBIs have had something to do with these guys breathing down his neck!

Sheets should be cut loose. This whole season has been a bust for him despite the slight improvement of late. He just plain strikes out too often without home runs to offset this as with Kanemoto or Tuffy.

Christopher once again is making sand hills out of molehills, or something like that. Blaming the coaches for the errors of the players is like blaming military officers when the troops shoot themselves in the foot. I think professional players know that errors are not helpful, but that's just a wild guess on my part.

- Sheets should be cut loose. This whole season has been a bust for him despite the slight improvement of late. He just plain strikes out too often without home runs to offset this as with Kanemoto or Tuffy.

Interesting view. Cut loose in favor of ...? Any more Kanemoto's or Rhodes' out there? By all means hire another gaijin for extra depth, but why jettison a solid player like Sheets? I mean, this season has been a bust for many individual Tigers, and it wouldn't be too difficult to find a dozen or so other players who deserve to be cut on the same basis. Anyway, if Sheets has indeed been posting good numbers of late, well, it's certainly the right time to do it.

Overall Sheets has a strong track record in Japan. It would take a brave GM to cast off Sheets on the assumption he's washed up, because you're likely to see him snapped up by a rival and then punishing you next season.

For once we are in 100% agreement. I cannot see any benefit in dumping Sheets just because he had an indifferent season. Who to replace him with? Sekimoto - he's needed at second. Maybe outside the Tigers - Arai? Possible, but his error count over the past two seasons has been very high, and would he want to go to Tigers? Sheets is versatile, flexible, and committed to the side. It would be a rash move to dump him on the strength of one bad season.

Zman - individual mistakes will happen, but a series of mistakes is indicative of other problems. This is where the coaches should step in - after all that's what they're there for, to help the players get better. Often until you are shown, you have no idea where you are going wrong.

For the $2 million roughly they are paying Sheets they can find a replacement. Look at how the YGs added to their roster this year. He did win the game last night, so that is a plus for him. But overall he is a big disappointment. If they do cut him, who cares where he goes to if he hits .240 and strikes out 100 plus times a year?

The Tigers won seven straight now. They are making a run similar to last year. Very exciting. The team stats look weak, team batting is .260 and average pitching other than the relief corp. Why the run? Coaching. Okada-san will be the manager of the year if the Tigers make it through to the playoffs.

And Christopher, sometimes I don't think even you believe what you write. Not making errors is fundamental. These players are pros not six year olds. It's like telling them to try to get hits. Or come to the stadium on time.

- It's like telling them to try to get hits. Or come to the stadium on time.

Even that sometimes needs to happen. For example Okada recently told Lin or Kanemoto that it's about time to start hitting home runs again. Or Igawa failing to turn up to the stadium on time for the victory celebrations. Or the Hanshin outfielder (Kamisaka?) who was late for the start several times because he was answering questions from the Osaka police about his speeding.

Just because these guys are pros does not mean that they automatically become intelligent or even responsible. Some of them you can rely on - some do need treating like six year olds. Not making errors may be fundamental, but errors still happen and sometimes it's because players have fallen into bad habits rather than being just one of those things. The former is part of the reason you have coaches.

- He did win the game last night

He's been contributing all week - not just last night.

- If they do cut him, who cares where he goes to if he hits .240 and strikes out 100 plus times a year?

Umm, except that in 2006 he hit .310 with 75 RBIs; and the year before that .289 and 85 RBIs. Is this year an anomaly? Could be, as the whole team has a woeful average. But they're winning as a team. Sheets is an important part of the team. You don't break that up without good reason. Why take a chance on some untried import when you've already got someone reliable when it counts - like now?

I know what you're trying to say, but I don't want to go back to the bad old days when it was a virtual revolving door. Every year they tried a new batch of shin-gaikokujin, and every year they failed to even come close to winning the pennant.

So the Tigers won again tonight in dramatic fashion. Wish I could have seen the game. The rich Giants line up is hitting nearly .020 points higher batting, yet the two teams are now virtually tied, as I had hoped to see. Despite all the irrational comments and willingness to write off the team by many posters, including Westbay, Hanshin is in the thick of it. Why? Coaching. Okada is doing more with less as you noted he did in ni-gun. Hara is doing less with more.

The race to the finish is going to be fun, and the playoffs between the Dragons, Tigers, and Midgets even more so.

Regarding Sheets, he is having a great week and is a reason why the Tigers are doing well. But he is still batting .250, not what you want from the number three hitter. He may be gone or have his salary cut in half.

The Tigers held on to Spenser for way too long, what good does it do to hold onto to non-performers?

- ...what good does it do to hold onto to non-performers?

Well if it improves the team's performance, sure. I have my doubts that cutting Sheets would do that, though. One reason for their successes over the past few years is that they haven't been cutting many players - after all, why mess with a winning combination?

You seem to be hung up on the fact that his stats are bad this year. But the whole team has been awful for most of the season. But they're a whisker away from first place. The Giants, on the other hand, spend loads of cash on power guys, they hit seven home runs in a game, yet still can't win. They're still struggling when it counts.

You seem to be advocating that the Tigers copy the Giants' strategy. But looking at the last four or five years, I'd rather have the Tigers' win-loss record, wouldn't you?

And besides, we've still got plenty of games left for Sheets to improve his numbers. Betcha he finishes above .250.

Mijow, even .250 is not good enough for the number three slot.

I would never want our Tigers to emulate the dreaded YGs, but other than Kanemoto, any one of the under-performers on the Tigers this year is expendable. Including Sheets. No need to be sentimental about it as I noticed gaikokujin posters tend to be regarding gaijin players. Arias is a good example.

Well drop him to fifth or sixth then, but why cut the guy if he's contributing to what's shaping up to be an unlikely pennant win?

And who do you get instead? Another Hardtke? Blowers? Kinkade? Evans? Perez? Cruz? Tarasco? Greenwell? I mean, the list of failed imports goes on and on and on. Why not hold on to someone who is doing the job he's been hired to do? (They knew they weren't getting a true power hitter in Sheets - just someone reliable who knows how to hit Central League pitchers.) And in September he's showing he can make a difference in close games. Exactly what they want. That's not being sentimental, just hard headed.

- And who do you get instead? Another Hardtke? Blowers? Kinkade? Evans? Perez? Cruz? Tarasco? Greenwell?

Bring back Derrik White!

Mijow, hard headed is correct. Sheets does not have to be replaced by a gaijin.

The problem for Sheets, as other posters have pointed out, is that the Tigers have plenty of five-six hitters with far better numbers than Sheets. Sheets is failing for what he was hired to do, hit in the three hole.

Nothing will happen till season end so don't worry, you will have your Sheets for a few more weeks this fall. After that you may check up on him in the Mexican League.

- Sheets is failing for what he was hired to do, hit in the three hole.

Yeah, but this whole season has been crazy - who in the team has been hitting consistently enough throughout the season to have a lock on any position? And I mean throughout the season.

Frankly I don't care if he's been hitting .250, and I suspect nobody else does either, except those who are slaves to the stats. They're in a tight pennant race. He's been winning tight games for them in September. Sorry, but he is doing the job he was hired for. Right now. When it counts.

- Nothing will happen till season end so don't worry, you will have your Sheets for a few more weeks this fall.

Would you like to bet on that? From what I've heard, his position is fairly secure if he continues the sort of hitting we've seen from him in the last week or two. Won't that be so disappointing for those who are so keen to see the back of him?

OK, let's make a friendly wager.

If Sheets is still around next season with the Tigers after his abysmal season this year, I will agree with Christopher on one of his cricket oriented baseball points at least twice next season. If Sheets is playing for the Omaha Steers or some equivalent, you must agree to not reply to Christopher's posts for one month of my choosing (will find a month with 31 days).

Put up or shut up!

And BTW, some Tigers are having great years, such as Lin and Williams.

OK, sounds good to me. Unless Sheets falls in a heap in the next couple of weeks. I've already said he should be cut if this happens.

- Put up or shut up!

Man, you're the one who seems keen to see Sheets gone. You're the one who has to prove he deserves to go. I'm just pointing out that he's been making a useful contribution recently.

- And BTW, some Tigers are having great years, such as Lin and Williams.

The last time I looked Williams didn't have a very good batting average. And Lin? Where is Lin? Oh, coming off a long stint on the DL. And he wasn't a regular starter at the beginning of the season either. I said the entire season.

Look, just to try and calm things down here (because I rather think this is getting out of hand), all I'm saying is that although Sheets is not having a good season, he's not the only one. His numbers are not good. I'm not arguing that they are. But I honestly believe that based on the good clutch hitting he's shown in the last couple of weeks, and assuming that it continues until the end of the season, it would be difficult to cut him.

I know zman doesn't agree, but that's OK. But I'm not planning to back down either. This is my last post on this particular thread. I've got better things to do than try and KO zman. Not that I'd be successful even with my best jab.

It should make for an interesting situation when Lin comes back from injury. Sheets is 8 for 34 (.235) with 7 RBI in Lin's absence, Sakurai is 6 for 32 (.188) with 5 RBI, Sekimoto is 12 for 26 (.462) with 1 RBI, Katsuragi is 9 for 25 (.360) with 3 RBI. But then, that's only eight games.

Okada doesn't have the guts to bench Kanemoto (7 for 27 .259 with 2 RBI), so who misses out? Lin, Katsuragi, Sakurai, Sekimoto or Sheets?

NB: Data in this post taken hurredly from the 打数, 安打 and 打点 columns over at the Hanshin official site. I think it's accurate. Apologies for any mistakes.

What a fine dilemma to find yourself in. I suppose you could bench someone who's done the hero interview, what, three times in the past week (Sheets), but personally I'd be looking at the match ups. There are two lefties and three righties in there, so Okada has a number of options.

Still, some critics doubt that Okada is up to the task of making these kinds of decisions, so we'll just have to wait and see.

- What a fine dilemma to find yourself in.

Isn't it, though? I can think of a number of other teams who'd like to have such a "problem."

Incidentally, I wonder what all this means for Hamanaka. Is he destined to be a pinch hitter?

- I wonder what all this means for Hamanaka. Is he destined to be a pinch hitter?

Now you're talking.

Maybe he is, but at the moment he's got tough competition with Hiyama.

Torakichi: - I wonder what all this means for Hamanaka. Is he destined to be a pinch hitter?

mijow: - Now you're talking.

Christopher: - Maybe he is, but at the moment he's got tough competition with Hiyama.

It wasn't long ago that he was talked about as the Tigers' next yoban.

Anyway, back on topic...

Over the three games mentioned in the OP, Hanshin stranded 9.7 runners on base per game. Hanshin's win-loss record in those games was 0-2-1. The Tigers have won all of their eight games since then, but have still left an average of 8.6 runners on base per game.

One statistical difference between the three games up to the OP and the eight games after is this: In the games of August 26, 28, and 29, out of the many innings in which Hanshin stranded runners on base, there was an average of three innings per game in which the Tigers got runners into scoring position at least once but couldn't send a single one of them home. In the eight games since then, there have only been 1.88 such innings per game (i.e., in more of the innings when runners reached scoring position and there were runners left on at the third out, the team managed to score at least once during the inning).

Does that make sense? I've re-read this post 500 times and each time it looks weirder and weirder.

Have you considered other teams' statistics? By this I mean, do the Tigers stand out especially as leaving too many runners on base when compared to the others? It's been a problem all season, but hasn't stopped them getting close. Are we in danger of focusing too much on the Tigers' woes in this department rather than something which is general?

Please, Christopher. I'm not trying to point out any woes or problems or strengths/weaknesses compared with other teams (the league standings are all I need for that ). I just thought that blip in mid-August was interesting. A well-performing team suddenly can't score to save themselves and go on a losing spree, and just as suddenly snap out of the funk and win eight in a row. I just thought that was weird; nothing more.

As I wrote on Sep 4, 2007 10:01 PM:

- No no, I don't think there is a problem. I just found those numbers [...] to be incredible.

My post of Sep 6, 2007 9:04 PM was just some stats to highlight how wild the numbers of that slump were.

I should have made myself clearer. What I'm asking is - is the blip really significant at all? This is why I brought in the other teams - did they have something similar? Was this something notable and unique to the Tigers, or was it something that everyone had been indulging in at some time and therefore just one of those things? Given that the Tigers have been stranding base runners all season I would say this is more of the same and nothing to pay much attention to.

Torakichi:

I don't think there is a problem I just found those numbers [...] to be incredible I wasn't trying to make any point, just share some interesting(?) stats I'm not trying to point out any woes or problems or strengths/weaknesses compared with other teams I just thought that blip in mid-August was interesting I just thought that was weird; nothing more My post of Sep 6, 2007 9:04 PM was just some stats to highlight how wild the numbers of that slump were.

Christopher:

What I'm asking is - is the blip really significant at all?

I give up.

I think we are maybe talking at cross purposes. I'm not disputing that you found the blip (as you call it) interesting. What I am asking is - is it actually significant or is it a case of taking something unremarkable over the whole season and magnifying it because it seems significant over a short period? Thinking something unusual and the thing being unusual are sometimes different, and that is what I'm curious about.

- ...is it actually significant or is it a case of taking something unremarkable over the whole season and magnifying it because it seems significant over a short period?

[Slight chuckle] Indeed, Christopher, you know a thing or two about that.

Indeed I do.

But neither of us would have predicted this situation either.

No, but at least I allowed for the possibility that it might happen.

Christopher, you predicted just the opposite of what is happening now. But you have already apologized for your lack of insight into the ways of the Tiger.

Certainly I got it wrong, but we are faced with a very rare situation. It is unusual for a club to come back from so far down. It is the first time in 25 years that the Tigers have won 10 in a row. This is very nice and very welcome, but do not kid yourself that this is a normal situation.

Where Hanshin is concerned, I wonder what a "normal" situation might be.

Anyway, the CL race is fun and exciting this year. Go Tigers!

- Where Hanshin is concerned, I wonder what a "normal" situation might be.

You are so right about the lack of normal activity by the Tigers, tonight was an example with the Tigers getting walloped by the Carp after winning 10 in a row.

Well at least the relievers could rest tonight.