Matsuzaka, Daisuke

I highly doubt Matsuzaka will be posted by the Lions. Matsuzaka has already said that he gave up trying to persuade the Lions to post him and will wait until the end of the '07 season when he becomes a free agent.

Also, from the Seibu side, Matsuzaka is the face of the Seibu organization, that alone is why Seibu won't post him.

No info, but speculation galore.

<guess>
As long as he keeps piching well, and as long as Seibu remains a strong team, Seibu will hold on to Matsuzaka for dear life, and virtually shower him with money when the time comes to prevent him from leaving. On the other hand, if he shows signs of deterioration or if Seibu deduce they can't win as a team even with Matsuzaka, they'll post him and use the moolah to buy a couple of others.
</guess>

His stock went up with that WBC win. he will get at least $10M from at least one MLB team. What does he make now?

At present exchange rates, about $2.8 million.

Jim Albright

With the Yankees folding like a house of cards, Matsuzaka-san will be the topic of much conversation. Aside from CM Wang, the Yankees' rotation was a disaster. They added a former teammate to their scouting staff and are expected to make a run for him.

I hope he has the sense to avoid the Joan Crawford (Sunset Blvd.) of the AL East.

Yeah, though I still don't think a friend will be enough to outbid Seattle. Remember, Seattle is owned by one of the biggest Japanese companies, Nintendo.

They have already proven that they will go after big name Japanese players. Former owner, Hiroshi Yamauchi, has been able to use his influence to acquire big name Japanese players such as Kazuhiro Sasaki, Ichiro Suzuki, and Kenji Johjima. Yamauchi will be very influential this time, too. Plus, Seattle also has some of the best scouting in the Pacific Rim.

No doubt the Yankees will be in the race for Matsuzaka, though I don't think it is right to sell Seattle short in the race. I still think he could end up with Seattle. It will be a two man race between the two.

The figures being floated around in U.S. sports circles are that the Seattle Mariners are willing to pay $30,000,000 for posting rights along with Matsuzaka getting $40,000,000 for five years to beat the New York Yankees' offer.

Egads, that's a whole lotta moolah! For posting rights, anyway. The pay is reasonable. $70M over 5 years total would be about right for a top of the line stud. That kind of money to the team for posting rights seems obscene if you consider they have gotten many years out of the player already.

I wouldn't count Seattle out either, considering their penchant for Japanese players. It is certainly a more comfortable situation, but can they be winners again, and soon?

As for New York, if you have the make-up, there is no greater place to play ball. H Matsui would have it no other way - indeed, he's a classic Yankee. Unfortunately, there are too few of them, and unless Georgie makes some more moves, it would be a team to be avoided.

The Mets could use a front line starter, too.

According to Seattle PI journalist, the M’s will probably have around $22 million to spend this off-season. With three vacancies in the rotation, two of their star players being Japanese, one of the owners being Japanese, and a large Japanese market, one cannot count the M's out of the Matsuzaka derby just yet.

ESPN and the Associated Press are reporting this. I couldn't believe it and now I know why. If no one on this board is posting about it, and I can't find it anywhere else on translated Japanese media, then it can't be true. Another overambitious reporter. It makes no sense they would make this decision now, not after Matsuzaka's shutout in the playoffs. Another false alarm I guess.

Seriously.

I've seen the "Seibu has agreed to post Matsuzaka" AP-informed article on a ton of English news sites today.

All I've seen in any Japanese newspapers has been stuff like "Well, we're going to meet and talk about it, but there haven't been any decisions made yet," along with the "Matsuzaka came out after a playoff game to wave goodbye to his fans," and such.

I was under the impression Ota doesn't really even have to think about it until after the Japan Series ends.

Did someone at the AP get their wires or translation crossed, somehow? Or do they somehow know something that the Japanese press doesn't? I'm pretty confused over the entire thing.

Sorry to rain on your cherry blossoms, but here is the story from Kyodo News.

Perhaps you can trust this rather than the unbelievable SI, AP, or ESPN?

The more respectable sports dailies have been guarded with what they've printed in regard to Matsuzaka's posting possibilities. After Seibu's second loss to Softbank in Stage One of the playoffs, reporters gathered around Matsuzaka and asked, now that the season is over, are you going to try to get posted. Matsuzaka fired back that they just lost a critical game and the Majors is the furthest thing from his mind at the moment. He was clearly upset that the vulture journalists were more concerned with him moving to the Majors than the Lions being eliminated.

The newspapers also asked Seibu's owner about the chances of Matsuzaka being posted, and he replied that anything was possible. 白書 (hakusho - literally "white paper" - figuratively "a blank sheet") was the word he used, which is being read by many to mean that there's a strong possibility that he will.

The less respectable sports papers (Yukan Fuji to name one - people buy it for horse racing odds, not NPB news) proclaimed that Matsuzaka was going to the Majors in a huge headline taking up a quarter of the front page.

I'm a strong believer in the wait and see approach, which is why I haven't weighed in on this topic. I don't share this obsession with predicting the future. But I equally don't like all of the confusion that these conflicting rumors are creating, so I guess it's time to speak up.

After reading the 白書 quote in Nikkan Sports, I got a nervous gut feeling that this was leaning toward the side of posting Matsuzaka. Tsutsumi-former-owner built a baseball team to win, and he wasn't going to post his ace. The group that's taken over for him strikes me as being more the type of people to put the Seibu Group above the Seibu Lions, and posting Matsuzaka at this time could be the best financially timing-wise. Matsuzaka is a hot ticket for MLB scouts, and he doesn't require major surgery this off season (which would be unknown a year from now).

So that's my gut feeling. I wouldn't count it as being any more or less accurate than the AP, Kyodo, etc. reports on the matter so far. The only difference is that I'm stating it as my opinion and telling you why, whereas they seem to state what they do as fact without anything concrete to explain why they reach such a conclusion. So let's just wait and see what happens.

The stories have provoked much discussion among fans in the U.S. as one would expect. On the Mets board a thread has erupted [scout.com], basing much analysis on some bits of video. Fans in Japan know much more than we do in the U.S. Any comments on Matsuzaka's abilities, comparisons to other pitchers from Japan - Nomo and Irabu get mentioned in the Met fans' thread - views on likelihood that he will leave Japan, and views on his likely level of performance?

Well, in the words of the late Samuel Goldwyn, "Nobody knows anything."

I will add "especially the oft-quoted and anonymous baseball sources."

Having said that and knowing nothing specific, my bet is he will be posted for the big man yen. Seibu needs the money and practically, one can't keep a man from doing what he badly wants to do.

- After reading the 白書 quote in Nikkan Sports, I got a nervous gut feeling that this was leaning toward the side of posting Matsuzaka. Tsutsumi-former-owner built a baseball team to win, and he wasn't going to post his ace. The group that's taken over for him strikes me as being more the type of people to put the Seibu Group above the Seibu Lions, and posting Matsuzaka at this time could be the best financially timing-wise. Matsuzaka is a hot ticket for MLB scouts, and he doesn't require major surgery this off season (which would be unknown a year from now).

Yeah, as I've been saying for a long time now, the main problem with the NPB is in how the teams are run. They are there for the better good of the parent company. Seeing as the Seibu Group is in dire straits, financial wise, it makes sense that they will post Matsuzaka. As if they lose him to free agency for nothing, then there is no gain for them financially.