Hideki Matsui in New York

Naturally that's been on the sports news every night. In some cases, that is the sports news (no joke).

I'd like to ask one thing, tho', that the TV can't tell us. Any TV reporter can (and ususlly does) get people to crowd around the camera and give a Ma-tsu-i! Ma-tsu-i! chant. But what do people in NY (and other places for that matter) actually think? Are they as excited as they seem to be on the parochial TV reports, or what?

No. Absolutely no excitement. The fans are subdued. It's not surprizing. For example, almost all the #55 jerseys were sold to Japanese fans. They won't get excited until he becomes the next Reggie Jackson. They are tough fans here.

I agree with you. New Yorkers are known as the toughest fans in the US. They know their sports. They almost expect the "new" guy to fail. But on the other hand the Japanese people are going to take pride in how their country's representative will perform for the Yankees. If Matsui hustles and plays hard like he is used to playing he can win the fans over. Lazy play is the worst thing in the eyes of a NY fan.

When Ichiro first came to the States, Buck Showalter made the comment that Ichiro was one of a few, if not the only, Japanese hitter who can perform at the major league level. Of course many baseball fans took him at his word, but since then, other hitters like Shinjo have arrived. While Shinjo hasn't put up great numbers, he has performed very closely to what he did in Japan. Plus if Ichiro played in such an "easy" league before, shouldn't we have seen even a small drop in his numbers? It just seems to me that the Japanese hitters have been performing at a level very close to what they did in Japan.

That said, I've been following the developments around Matsui very closely. If he follows the trend set by the previous imports, Matsui could give the Yankees two of the best lefthanded power hitters in the game (Giambi being the other). I even drafted the guy in my fantasy league yesterday! At the very worst Matsui will be a .300 hitter who will put up around 25 homers a year. However I dont expect the worst. Either way, I'm very excited to see the guy play!

Plus if Ichiro played in such an "easy" league before, shouldn't we have seen even a small drop in his numbers?

Let me preface this by saying that I think he's an amazing talent and I don't think NBP is an "easy" league, but Ichiro's numbers have dropped -- significantly. He hit .362/.428/.541 over his past three years in Japan compared to .336/.385/.441 so far in the majors. That's a 143 point drop in OPS.

I don't know much about Ichiro before he came to the States, so out of curiousity, where did he bat in the lineup while he played in Japan?

Personally, I'm a strong believer in the "bottom line." The most fundamental goal of baseball is to score runs and Ichiro's run production hasn't changed that much. With the exception of the 15-20 homers he hit per year in Japan, his numbers don't look all that different to me. If he were not asked to leadoff and simply get on base, might that be different? He has stole 87 bases in two years which is much higher than his last few years in Japan. Could this reflect a changing approach? By that I don't mean an adjustment to American pitchers, but an adjustment to the role of leadoff man for a major league team. Where getting on and stealing bases is emphasized rather than hitting homeruns and hitting for power. Batting average can vary widely from year to year. A few flares and bloops that drop in one year but don't the next can represent 10-15 points of batting average. What he has done is keep his average consistantly above .300 which is the important thing.

We could probably chew on the minutia for weeks. I guess the bottom line that we're both saying is that he's a great player and Matsui will be too.

- I don't know much about Ichiro before he came to the States, so out of curiousity, where did he bat in the lineup while he played in Japan?

Ichiro batted 1st and 3rd mostly, as I recall. Ohgi-kantoku batted him 2nd and 4th on occasion as well, depending on who was injured or not producing at the time.

Matsui, the subject of the thread, was Japan's poster boy #4 batter.

In Japan, Ichiro batted 3rd for the Orix Blue Wave. Usually the best all around hitter on the team hits 3rd. Therefore, his role was different from what the Mariners expect him to do.

The year the Mariners won 116 games, Boone was the productive 3rd hitter. Last year he slumped to the point that Piniella thought about moving Ichiro to bat 3rd. Only problem was there was nobody to take over the leadoff position. They do have Winn this year, so we could see Ichiro hit 3rd. Then his RBI total would be similar to his Japan stats. He is a tremendous hitter with men in scoring position.

I'd be more inclined to accept your "changing approach" suggestion if Ichiro's slugging had decreased while his on-base percentage increased, but it hasn't. I guess my point is, there's a noticeable difference in the level of play between MLB and NBP, which is why I expect Matsui to hit .295/.400/.510 his first year -- great numbers, by the way -- and not .330/.450/.650 (almost Bonds territory).

You nearly have me convinced, but I'm still not sold. When I look at Ichiro's stats closer (breaking it down by pre and post all star) I think we get a better view of his overall ability. In 2001 he hit .345 the first half and .356 the second. The big difference here between his Japanese numbers and his MLB numbers were walks. Call it adjusting to a new role or new enviroment but he was really aggressive at the plate. 2002 rolls around and suddenly he hits .357 with a .430 OBP. The walks are back! His 2nd half was awful, but theres no doubt that his knee played a role in that. Like the Baseball Prospectus people mentioned, it's extrememly difficult to gauge the impact that moving over to a new style of play and new culture can have on a player. In my opinion, if he continues the high average and walking this coming season, then we can safely say that his first season's walk total was an adjustment period. So I guess the jury is still out.

I can't argue with the .295 average for Matsui, but I'm a strong believer in the Baseball Prospectus statistical analysis of baseball. They have almost never steered me wrong when preparing to draft for my fantasy league (a keeper Diamond Mind Baseball League). BP has Matsui hitting 40 homers, so I'm optimistic that he will put up a stronger slugging than you give him. His OBP, I'll put in the .380 to .395 range.

You nearly have me convinced, but I'm still not sold.

What are you not sold on? That there's a difference in the level of play? Clay Davenport's research at Baseball Prospectus supports it. Also see my response to CFiJ below.

If you're looking for MLE's for Godzilla, check out Japanese Possibilities for the MLB for 2003. According to that article, 40 home runs would represent a career high.

Clay Davenport has Matsui hitting .275 with 40 homers while Jim Albright has him hitting .300 with less power. We have two credible baseball annalists giving two completely different predictions for the same player. I don't think that you can take a few mathematic equations and apply them to player's stats and say "here is what he's going to do at the next level." Take Albert Pujols for example. In 2000 he was in low A ball where he hit .320 with 17 homers in 395 ABs. I'm no baseball expert, but I know that low single A ball doesn't convert to the Majors very well. But 2001 rolls around and he hits .329 with an OPS of over 1.000 at the Major League level!

What do we know? 1) Ichiro and Shinjo's batting averages (with the exception of Ichiro's 2002 2nd half) really haven't changed all that much. We can probably expect the same from Matsui (around a .300 average). 2) Ichiro's walk totals were way down the first year but came back the second. Perhaps this was an adjustment to pitching or his new role, but his average and walk totals are falling back into line with his Japanese numbers. Whether it was his knee or pressing to make up for the lost production of the rest of the Seattle lineup, Ichiro's 2002 second half ruined his overall numbers.

I predict that Matsui will have a drop in his walk rate the first year. Possibly not as dramatic a drop as Ichiro's first season given his willingness to take a walk in Japan, but we should see a modest fall off.

The best we can do is look at the player's set of skills and make our own predictions. In my opinion, the most difficult aspect of Matsui's game to predict will be the power. If Ichiro had been called on to be a run producer rather than a table setter, would he have put up more power numbers? We may never know. But Matsui does have incredible bat speed, and from what I've read, Yankee Stadium's right field wall is 10 feet shallower than Matsui's former home field.

No matter what happens, this is going to make for some great baseball!

My prediction for Matsui is to hit .300 with 35-40 homers and 80-90 walks.

My prediction for Matsui is to hit .300 with 35-40 homers and 80-90 walks.

Fair enough. That'd be approximately a .950-.960 OPS, and I think he'll be closer to .900-.920. Either way, we both agree that Matsui's numbers will drop this year -- as do most statisticians -- and that's been my point all along. Godzilla hit .328 (1.109 OPS) with 43 homers and 113 walks over the past three seasons, so your estimate has his OPS dropping by 150-160 points -- right in line with Ichiro's decrease. Hmm, you might be on to something.

In the Yankee batting order Matsui will bat anywhere from 7th to 9th. He will not walk as much as he did as the Giant's 4th hitter. The MLB pitchers will challenge him with fastballs.

Personally, I see Soriano floundering this season in the leadoff role. His 2nd half numbers are not what you want out of a leadoff hitter (.288/.322/.515). I think the Yankees should leadoff with Jeter, whos OBP was a full 40 points higher than Soriano's. As the years have gone by, Williams has turned into more of a high average and walk guy and less of a power hitter, which would suite him well in the 2nd hole. You could then shift Matsui anywhere from fifth to third.

Of course, it's all speculation at this point. Injuries, slumps, and sleepers can change everything.

I think the Yankees are hoping that Soriano continues to improve in terms of pitch selection because they love that speed in the lead-off spot. They like Jeter's hit and run ability in the 2nd hole.

The rest of the line-up is a lefty/righty thing with Torre, and he has the luxury of 2 switch hitters.

I wonder how much Ichiro's knee injury last year contributed to his poor second half. It all but curtailed his basestealing, and I would imagine he lost a step or two getting down the line.

In any case, two years still allows for a lot more variation than 9. Regression towards the mean suggests to me that Ichiro will put up better numbers than last year, if not quite as good as his 2001 numbers.

Another contributing factor is the down years that the rest of the line-up had. Boone and Cameron were off and Edgar was hurt. Ichiro may have tried to do too much on his own. That is, drive the ball with power instead of just slapping the ball for hits.

In any case, two years still allows for a lot more variation than 9.

Not sure if this is directed at me or not. If yes, I used an average of Ichiro's last three years in Japan, not his whole career. The difference is even more pronounced if his last two years are used -- a 166 point drop in OPS rather than 143 -- and I doubt it can be explained away by a small sample size. If Ichiro duplicated his 2001 MVP season this year, his MLB average would be .341/.384/.447, still 139 points behind his 1998-2000 average. Even if Ichiro managed the impossible and duplicated said MVP season over the next 7 years, his average OPS would still be 107 points behind the standard he set in Japan.

Well, 1908, if you're trying to convince me that there's a difference in the level of play between MLB and NPB, you're preaching to the choir. I've long believed and still do that MLB's greater depth gives it a higher level of play (if by "play" we mean "difficulty level"). Not sky-high higher, but a definite difference.

If, however, you want to convince me that last year was indicative of Ichiro's standard performance in MLB or otherwise, I would have to disagree. Ichiro had a career year in 2000 (his best since his rookie year), a standard year in 2001, and an off year in 2002, possibly caused by injury. I'm merely saying to assess the "standard" for Ichiro's play in the Major's, we need to wait a couple more years. That's what I mean by variation.

Thanks for the clarification.

Learning to adjust to the pitchers will be the key. For a guy like Ichiro who I compare to the likes of a Rod Carew or Wade Boggs he has made the adjustment. Shinjo is a free swinger. He has been able to hit mediocre pitchers or mistakes. He can be overwhelmed by good pitchers. Matsui is a combination of power and ability. I think he can make the necessary adjustments to be a good hitter, but it will not happen right away.

I am Japanese, but I have lived in NY for over 30 years. To be honest most New Yorkers are skeptical of Matsui. They are quick to compare him to Hideki Irabu who failed miserably with the Yankees in terms of fan support. His record was actually not bad. Americans in general still consider baseball as their sport so they do not accept Japanese baseball stats. They consider Matsui and his 50 HRs as minor league stats.

I have watched Matsui and think with his good work ethic can adapt to the MLB.

> They are quick to compare him to Hideki Irabu [...]

In that case I hope he comes to Hanshin in a few years' time

I think the GM for the Yankees, Cashman, quickly found out that Matsui is no Irabu. Matsui has worked out every day at Yankee Stadium after arriving in NY, and yesterday, after arriving in Tampa, went to work out right away. He will fit right in with Jeter and the rest of the hard working business like Yankees.

>They are quick to compare him to Hideki Irabu

Yes, interesting that. I wonder what the fans base it on? Could it be because they both have the same given name? Irrational way to decide whether someone has ability or not, don't you think?

NY fans, in general, are knowledeable fans. But they also have long memories. The only previous Japanese player for them was Irabu, and he was such a disappointment. Not only was he supposed to be the Clemens of Japan, but he was not fan-friendly, or even team mate friendly.

So until another Japanese player shows otherwise, all Japanese players will be unfarily labelled as underachieving and lazy. I hope Matsui is the one to do that. He has already been accepted by Jeter in just 2 days.

Who ever accused Yankee fans of being rational?!

BTW I'm a Yankee fan .

Hey , you are from Illinois!
Aren't you a Cubby fan?
Go Dusty!!!

I've pretty much been a Yankee fan since I was 5. Reggie Jackson was my favorite player so naturally I loved the team he was on. Most of my friends were Cub fans, but years of wasted talent, wasted money, and hopelessness has finally gotten to them. They now view every move the Cubs make with suspicion.

Matsui is no fat toad. By the way, Irabu is going down to the Japanese minor league now (I knew Hoshino wouldn't get along with a fat toad).

Anyway, NYers are an arrogant bunch. Matsui has been compared to Irabu only because he is from Japan. NYers are, for the most part, knowledgeable fans, but they can be extremely simplistic. It is very similar to the way Japanese media treat a shin-gaikokujin on a NPB team. You are either Randy Bass or a Kevin Mitchell.

Thanks for the info about Irabu. Did Hanshin acquire Irabu without consulting Hoshino? I guess once a fat toad, always a fat toad.

There are many New Yorkers who are not willing to give Matsui a chance to show what he can do. Some have even circulated rumors that he is a terrible outfielder. Sports Talk Radio (WFAN) host Mike Francesca just seems to be anti-foreigner. People like him still believe that baseball is an "American" sport. Wake up! 40% of MLB is either Latain Americans or Asians.

I listen to Mike and the Mad Dog almost every day during my commute. Francesa is a typical NY baseball fan. He has that "lets wait and see" attitude. He seem to be anti-foreigner sometimes, but overall he is fair. I'm sure he'll be converted to pro-Matsui as the season comes along. Matsui's personality will be appreciated by a guy like Francesa.

I was a big Francesa fan, but recently he has gotten a little too arrogant. As a change of pace I have been listening to Michael Kay in the morning. He actually is fun to listen to because he sometimes is willing to admit it if he is wrong. And he works for YES so he does have good Yankee info.
I think many Japanese people are going to join this Godzilla Fan Club that was created in NY. I am thinking of joining too so we could all cheer for Matsui together.

I am listening to Mike Francesa as I write. He is killing Matsui now. Not as a player, but the Matsui-mania. He said that the other players and Torre will get sick of it. Business wise he praises it, but as a baseball move he said it is a bad move.
To that I say - get used to it! It is a 3 year contract and as a big baseball fan and being Japanese
I think this is great!

- By the way, Irabu is going down to the Japanese minor league now (I knew Hoshino wouldn't get along with a fat toad).

Come on, the poor guy came down with bronchitis - from what I've heard it's got nothing to do with whether or not Hoshino gets along with him.

Apparently he's back in training, having pitched for the first time in 8 days yesterday (or was it the day before?).

His record in MLB notwithstanding, I'm willing to give the guy a chance.

It's always something with this guy. He does not take care of his body. I wish him luck.

Getting sick is not an excuse in Japanese baseball. Konjo Konjo!!!

Gattsu da ze!!
Pawafuru tamashii!
Gattsu da ze!!
Sui mo amai mo!
Gattsu da ze!!
Do the do-konjo!
Otoko wa ase kaite, beso kaite GO!!!

(With all due apologies to Westbay-san for the extreme off-topicness of this post...)

Contrast this with Hideki Matsui. Godzilla had a root canal on Monday. He shrugged it off, describing the pain as less than he'd expected. He won't miss the Yankees' intrasquad game.

Actually, he missed the game on Tuesday because Torre had previously decided to sit him out of that game. But he actually got more work than a game by hitting indoors under the guidance of hitting coach Rick Down for more than an hour. He will be in the line-up for the first exhibition game Thursday against the Reds.

But he will not have an Iron-man streak with the Yankees. Torre likes to rest his players from time to time although guys like Jeter hate to sit out.

I agree with Torre. I remember Cal Ripken was criticized whenever he was having a less than remarkable season during his streak. It takes a toll on the whole team.