Sports Illustrated Article: ICHIRO Best/Worst Thing for Japanese Baseball

It's the great thing for Japanese baseball when the biggest stars go to the U.S. to play against the best players in the world. Fans of Japanese baseball will always be there, no matter what.

I have always said this, but Japanese fans are fair-weather MLB fans. Right now everyone's a Mariners fan, but if Ichiro and Sasaki got traded to say, the Expos, then everyone in Japan who suddenly become Expos fans and no one would care about the Mariners.

Hard-core Hanshin fans are not going to suddenly stop rooting for the Tigers and switch allegiances to another Japanese team or to the SF Giants because of Shinjo or whoever else goes over there. The fans will always be there and new stars like Igawa will pique their interest.

The Giants have lost a player to the majors before, albeit a fringe player, Takashi Kashiwada, who was actually loaned to the Mets.

It wouldn't be bad for the Giants to lose Matsui. The fans will still have pretty boy Y.Takahashi and the juiceman Kiyohara to cheer for. Matsui's loss would be a big one, but it wouldn't be devastating.

I don't know, it's hard to believe that Japanese fans would really be happy seeing tape of all their favorite players playing overseas while they're stuck watching "future stars of the MLB" in their home country

Trust me on this one, Brian. I'm Japanese and I've been a baseball fan for as long as I can remember and I love it when guys like Ichiro go over to the U.S. and prove to all the doubters in the U.S. how good Japanese baseball really is.

Just the other day, former Swallow Rex Hudler was talking about Japanese baseball during the Dodgers-Angels game in which Ishii pitched and he said that when he went back to the big leagues in '94 after a season in Japan, a lot of people were talking about Japan like it was a second-tier league. Hudler said that he had to keep telling people that there were some excellent ballplayers here in Japan but there were a lot of doubters. I bet now he feels vindicated since he's been proven right.

Look, NPB has a niche here. It's got the market covered since only sumo and maybe soccer are the only sports here to maybe take some of the interest away from sports fans here. It's not like the U.S. where baseball is no longer the national pastime since the NFL and NBA continue to grow.

I'll continue to watch Japanese baseball as long as it exists. I don't watch the games to see one particular player anyway. I enjoy watching the Yomiuri Giants lose, no matter who's on the team.

I have to agree with null-san. The Giants will continue to sell out even with Matsui gone (and most fans, including those in his hometown, support that move). Attendance is up in Japan this year (even Orix) and as long as they can keep developing players (which,
admittedly, they don't do nearly as well as they should be doing) then NPB will be just fine. Being a Hanshin fan seems almost part of the genetic code for people in Osaka, so they will be fine.

Too, what SI has ignored is a recent Asahi survey that indicated that MLB is still a minority taste in Japan and that overwhelmingly Japanese prefer the domestic brand. So things are fine. They would be better if the Japanese ownership actually had a clue (not that Bud Selig hasn't been poison for MLB), but they just keep stumbling along anyway.

I'm a new Jap baseball fan, but I just don't know why would you enjoy watching the Giants lose?

I think fans of Japanese baseball can be split up in roughly two groups. Giants fans and then the anti-Giants.

My father and eldest brother were/are big Giants fans, I am a Swallows fan and definitely an anti-Giant. Watching too much Nihon TV (Yomiuri TV) can do that to a person.

Also, growing up in Seattle as a big Mariners fan, I always felt that the best Japanese players had to have more to offer than the players that the Mariners had on the field during the mid 80's. When Jeff Smulyan was selling the team to the group including Nintendo, there were more than enough articles and speculation that the group would try to move the team to Japan. I just wanted to see what Ikeyama (Bun-Bun-Maru) would do in a Mariners uniform (of course he would have had to beat out Omar Vizquel to do that). I dreamed of seeing Jay Buhner and Ikeyama in the same line up and that is why I continued to be interested in NPB.

Japanese players going to the majors has to be good for NPB, when the players start coming back and spreading the word of what they learned in the MLB, hopefully the level of NPB will rise.

Deep down in the darkest recesses of my heart, I probably hope that Matsui fails in the MLB, just because he has come from the Giants. . .unless he plays for the Mariners.

Also, I think what you'll find is that the stars won't be the ones to go, in general. Sure, a few like Ichiro or Ishii will cross over, but what I think you'll find is that a lot of mid-level players, like Shinjo and Taguchi will be the ones making the switch.

And as Null has pointed out, MLB and NPB aren't really in competition in Japan. A 7:05 pm game on the East Coast would be aired at 8:05 am Japan time, not exactly the best time slot. Ichiro and the Mariners had a historic year last year, in many ways, but in the long term MLB won't be able to compete with NPB on tv in that kind of time slot. A day game in the U.S. would be aired in the middle of the night in Japan (as a Cubs fan, I know rigors of trying to follow a team playing games at 2:00 in the morning all too well). And of course, the fact remains that it will always be easier to go see a Japanese game than it would to see an MLB game.

I don't see Kazuo Matsui being signed by the Yankees. He's a shortstop, and I can't see the Yanks moving Jeter or Soriano in order to sign him. Hideki Matsui would fit very well in left field for the Yanks, but we'll wait and see. Nakamura is a third baseman, so I can't see the Yanks signing him, either. They have a blue chip prospect in Drew Henson who's all been promised the job next year, and they wouldn't put Nakamura at first with Giambi there.

I don't think MLB will kill NPB or turn it into a minor league. What I foresee happening is something much more along the lines of soccer in Europe. With all the leagues in the U.S., Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Australia and Central America, I think in the future you'll see a lot of player movement between the various leagues. MLB may still be top dog, like Spain's La Liga, but baseball will remain popular in those countries who develop their domestic leagues, like England's Premiership and Italy's Serie A. Think of this: sending players to Europe hasn't killed the J-League, even though it has less history than NPB.

Another fallacy has been to look at Japanese players with the same colored glasses with which we look at U.S. players. Many U.S. players will follow the money. Some Japanese players will, as well, but I don't think it's out of line to say that if a Japanese player could play in a MLB-like environment in Japan, they would choose that over crossing over to the actual MLB. It's easier to stay in Japan: no need to learn a new language, the food's better, public safety is better, everything is familiar. Playing in MLB provides better amenities and better salaries, but I think that will change as time goes on. Playing in MLB may provide the challenge of playing against better competition, but I think the competition is getting better in Japan all the time.

A similar thing happened in 1996, when Nomo left. Nomo left and NPB realized it needed to make some changes. It gave players limited free agency. Now it's begun to let them use agents in contract negotiations. The Japanese Players Union has become more active, providing the players with a voice. As time goes on, I think the advantages of going over to MLB will be outweighed by the advantages of staying in Japan, and while players from Japan will continue to go over, I don't think there will ever be a real flood.

I was kidding with the yankee thing, it's just that they can buy anything they want

I have a feeling that Kazuo Matsui will end up with the Dodgers since they need better hitting from that position. I've heard that Kazuo has expressed in interest in playing for the Mariners, but Carlos Guillen has been playing very well for them and I don't think the Mariners need another shortstop since they also have Desi Relaford backing up Guillen. Another possibility for Kazuo Matsui might be the Mets. Can anyone tell me how Kazuo Matsui is as a defensive player, All I know about him is that he hits for a high average and has very good speed.

The Mets need a good shortstop, Rey Ordonez isn't cutting it. But who knows, there might be a major shakeup since all the new Met aquisitions forgot how to play. Managers, GM, and a lot of players could be gone......

Can anyone tell me how Kazuo Matsui is as a defensive player, All I know about him is that he hits for a high average and has very good speed.

He is widely considered one the best defensive shortstops in the Pacific League, and maybe in all of Nippon Professional Baseball. He plays on turf, too. He's won two Gold Gloves, back in 1997 and 1998. Say, Westbay-san, who's won the Gold Gloves at PL shortstop since then?

Let's check my handy-dandy Record Book:

1997: K. Matsui (Seibu Lions)
1998: "
1999: Makoto Kosaka (Chiba Lotte Marines)
2000: "
2001: "

Kosaka is very dynamic at the position. It's funny how Matsui and Kosaka seem to battle each other in a number of categories such as best shortstop and the stolen base title year after year. Kosaka is also one of the shortest star players in the game, almost 10cm shorter than "Little Matsui."

The Mets have made noises about being all over Kazuo Matsui when he becomes available. Defensively, he has a very strong arm and made only nine errors last season. Iirc, only one of those errors was committed after the all star break. One other benefit to Matsui is his durability. He has a consecutive games streak going right now that's well over 900 and counting. He is also faster than Ichiro, so I expect that he can steal 60-75 bases a year consistently and even hit the 100 mark a time or two.

Mr. Garland, I read your article on "There is no next Ichiro", but based on what you said about Kazuo Matsui this guy may be able to make the same kind of impact Ichiro did in 2001, maybe not in batting average, but if he can steal 75 bases and is faster than Ichiro then I'd definitely call him the next "Ichiro"

I just hope he ends up on a N.L. team and NHK/BS show an even amount of games between AL and NL games. It would be nice to watch other teams play.

morosuki

You are a genius!

Do you think that Kaz Matsui will actually let himself get posted this year? It would be great to see him in the Major Leagues. According to rumors in Seattle, he is faster than Ichiro!

> Do you think that Kaz Matsui will actually let
> himself get posted this year? It would be great to
> see him in the Major Leagues. According to rumors in
> Seattle, he is faster than Ichiro!

Someone will have to confirm this for me, but I believe that Kazuo Matsui will be a free agent this year. In any case, he will go over if he feels he is ready to go over. He felt he didn't do well enough last year, and he wants to up his game.

Kazuo will earn his free agency during the 2003 season. So unless he's posted, he won't be in the Majors 'til 2004 -- assuming he decides to come, of course.

Remeber, Japanese player have 9 or 10 years until free agency. For many players, their best years are gone. Japanese fans still can enjoy 9, 10 years of their star players

I'm sorry for being off topic, but couldn't the Lions sell Kazuo Matsui rights?

And how much would he cost? I mean the amount a MLB team has to pay the Lions for taking him (7.5 mil I think) and a contract of 3y/15million should do it right?

I heared in one scouting report that this Matsui could hit 30hr and steal 60 bases. Is that too much?

Is he as good as he is made out to be?

Thanks for answering my questions (if you do).

> I'm sorry for being off topic, but couldn't the Lions sell Kazuo Matsui's rights?

Yes.

> And how much would he cost? I mean the amount a MLB team has to pay the Lions for taking him (7.5 mil I think)
> and a contract of 3y/15 million should do it right?

The bid amount is dictated by the market, and I suspect the market for Kazuo would be much higher than $7.5 million. $15 million wouldn't surprise me. 3 years, $15 million might be enough to sign him, but the price could be higher, especially if Godzilla signs for big bucks ($10+ million per year).

> I heard in one scouting report that this Matsui could hit 30 hr and steal 60 bases. Is that too much?

His power numbers should drop off a bit when (if) he makes the switch to the majors so 30 might be on the high side. 60 steals are possible, but I'd be a little more conservative if I had to guess and say 40.