Chat with Cardinals Director of International Scouting

Wow. So Ichiro played for the BayStars? No, wait, Sasaki must have played for the Blue Wave...

Amazing how people will compare 590 at-bats in one league to a six-year career of playing everyday in another, and think that it's statistically sound...

> Amazing how people will compare 590 at-bats in one
> league to a six-year career of playing everyday in
> another, and think that it's statistically sound...

When did this come up?

>> Amazing how people will compare 590 at-bats in
>> one league to a six-year career of playing
>> everyday in another, and think that it's
>> statistically sound...

>When did this come up?

His mention of Tuffy Rhodes. Since he hit 55 homers, a lot of people have been coming up with that line: "Well, Tuffy Rhodes hit 55 homers, so how high can the level of play be?" No one stops to think that Tuffy didn't get a chance to play in the Majors; his career high for games played in a season was 95 for the Cubs. He never played in more than 44 games in any other season.

In Japan, he got to play everyday, which helps any batter. In Japan they were willing to work with him to improve his game. He's comfortable and knows the pitchers. Just because he wasn't able to do much in his 590 Major League at-bats doesn't mean he couldn't much period. To use Tuffy as a benchmark of the level of play in Japan because he hit essentially one season's worth of at-bats in MLB is silly and statistically unsound.

I understand you're point, but I disagree with your Tuffy-didn't-get-a-chance argument.

Tuffy was given many chances to succeed in the majors. Those 590 at-bats you allude to came over a 6 year period, and Rhodes flat out didn't perform. How bad was Tuffy? He batted .224/.310/.349 with 121 K versus 74 BB in those 590 AB. In his 95 at-bat season, Tuffy hit .234/.318/.387 -- not much better than his career averages -- and he was already 26 years old, no longer a prospect.

Again, I understand your point but Tuffy Rhodes was a miserable pro ballplayer before he played in Japan. Period.

I will have to disagree with this Cards' director. I went to school with Karl "Tuffy" Rhodes. I got to watch a few ball games. Karl had it then, and he has it now. Then, also, if he did not have what it takes to be a pro-ball player, then why did the Astros draft him right out of high school? He was up for rookie of the year with Jeff Bagwell, which Bagwell won.

When you don't have a chance to play every day, your skills will go as well. He was not given that in MLB. But in Japan they gave him every day play, and over the years, look what has happened.

Aw, he was going along so good until that last question where he put Ichiro and Sasaki on the same Japanese team. Osshiiiii.

The "coming global draft" comments were interesting. I was sure that he'd made a mistake by saying that it was coming soon, but he recovered well by saying that it'll be tough to get it passed in countries with professional teams and their own draft. However,

[Talk about baseball academies snipped...] Let's say the top HS player in Japan, if we try to lure him to the U.S., I guarantee you Mark Prior would be high on a team's list in Japan at the next draft. If we raid their talent they will do the same to us.

I have to strongly disagree, here. Yes, the "powers that be" in Japan will do everything that they can to keep their Koshien stars in Japan. But they won't be going after North American high school prospects in retaliation. For starters, the foreign player limit rule will seriously handicap them from being able to do so. Furthermor, while "revenge" is a word slowly creaping into Japanese baseball vocabulary, I don't think that even Watanabe-owner would stoop so low as to use a kid as a pawn in a "do unto others" brawl. No. They'll adapt rules to make it harder, but I don't see retaliation as being a factor.

There were several other comments that I don't necessarily agree with. But he's entitled to his opinion. And I thought he answered pretty well over all.

The Koreans would have a big problem with their players being drafted by MLB clubs. But Sandy Alderson has said that they will not make NPB players subject to the draft. Also, the draft violates anti-trust laws
and a player from Japan that, say, gets drafted by Kansas City but signs with the Dodgers, can challenge
it in court and MLB, to be frank, will lose. So extending the draft overseas is fraught with a lot of problems.

Also, the draft violates anti-trust laws and a player from Japan that, say, gets drafted by Kansas City but signs with the Dodgers, can challenge it in court and MLB, to be frank, will lose.

Wouldn't MLB's antitrust exemption come into play here? I suspect you're familar with it, Gary, but for those who are not: MLB has been exempt from antitrust laws since 1922, when the Supreme Court ruled in its favor in Federal Baseball Club of Baltimore, Inc. v. National Baseball Clubs. Various courts have been reluctant to overrule that decision.

I, myself, don't believe that MLB teams will be able to drain away much of the top high school talent, anyway. Unless one really wanted to play in the Majors in the first place. Who wants to have to go through a few years of minor league life in a foreign country where you can barely speak the language, when you could play for better money right at home, where your family can watch and the food is good? I mean, Matsuzaka Daisuke has been very candid about his desire to pitch in the Majors. By the time he graduated high school Mac Suzuki had pitched in a few games, and there were a number of successful Japanese pitchers. He could have easily gotten himself an agent and made the rounds to the Major League teams. Especially after he was unable to get drafted by his favorite team, Yokohama. Matsuzaka would easily have been a first round draft pick in the U.S. and have absolutely no doubt that he could have gotten signed by a Major League team out of high school. But he didn't. He chose to go to the Japanese pro leagues, and try to make his jump to the Majors after his service time in Japan was up. If you'd be going to the minors anyway, why not just get experience in your homeland first? Ultimately, I think that's what happened with Terahara. Sure, the Dodgers were probably willing to give him a Major League contract, but they would never guarantee an 18 year old a spot on the 25-man roster. With Daiei, Terahara knew he'd open the season with the 1-gun.

I suspect that what Japan could do is selectively pick off low draft picks say the 20s and higher that peak their interest. I don't see it as retaliation, just a new avenue of talent. I know they have camps for those who want to, but scouting these guys could be a boon. There are a lot of pretty good college guys who became good professionals but were unheralded previously. Wade Miller with the Astros now for example. I just see that if a team wants talent there are lots of people who are passed up by America who can be scouted and signed. Shane Komine comes to mind. His high work load, height, and arm injury scares most teams off but his talent is high quality. Could be a good reliever. Shane throws hard and has good breaking stuff. Currently plays for Nebraska but is from Hawaii. Some of these guys are forced to sign for low contracts and become bargains for the Major League team lucky enough to scout them.

Update. Komine was recently drafted in the 9th round and signed for probably between 10,000 and 40,000 dollars US. He really got lowballed because he was a college senior. I am not suggesting Japan start stealing people, especially if the players want to go to the MLB. But if the player expresses some interest, I thought maybe it would be lucrative for both parties. I guess it probably won't happen and maybe it's for the best.