ESPN Chats - Uninformed Opinions and the Men Who Propogate Them

Wow! Nice rebuttal. And you said everything I thought - and more.

Morgan's conclusion of "I still think most of the players will come from Latin America" was right on. But how he should have gotten there has been expounded here over and over, and he missed it.

Then the Baseball Prospectus article came right to mind with the first question to Neyer-san. I was impressed that he'd mentioned it. But with your short biography of him (which was better than the one on the link to his session), reading BP would fit his profile.

Still, I would be surprised if MLB teams started subsidizing and/or owning NPB team. They would want more power over what they can do than NPB will ever allow. Kintetsu was looking for someone to share the "burden" of running an unprofitable team last year. (Of course, that changes when one is winning, but...) The Dodgers have a working relationship with them now, as the Indians do with the Swallows and the Yankees do with the Fighters. Daiei appears to be for sale, but I haven't read of any interest from the Majors to purchase the Fukuoka "Three Piece Set."

I'm not sure what Yoshi-san was asking about "winter ball." Isn't that what Northern Hemispherians call summer baseball in the Southern Hemisphere? A place where athletes can keep in shape during the off season. Besides, we had winter ball this passed off season. It was called the Masters' League.

I

First, let's not be too hard on Morgan. In a general sense, he's right. The volume of Japanese players will never touch the numbers coming out of the Dominican Republic.

Why? Well, first of all, there are Japanese stars that began their careers in the industrial leagues, where they have to play three years before they can be drafted. Michihiro Ogasawara and Nobuhiko Matsunaka are two such examples. They will then have to stay in Japan once they are drafted and signed for nine years before they become eligible for free agency. Few teams are going to post players unless they are in just such bad financial straits that they feel compelled to do so. Consequently, those players will generally be over 30 by the time they gain free agency (provided that they haven't spent substantial time injured as Matsunaka has) and when you hit that mark you become a lot less desirable to an MLB team. Tomoaki Kanemoto, who would have made a pretty good MLB outfielder if he came over five years ago, will get no offers since he is 34-35.

As for the popularity of baseball in Japan, it is still tops among the major sports. However, whatever you say about the size of the Japanese population is negated by the fact that most parents don't raise or encourage their kids to try to become professional athletes. So a lot of those little leaguers will drop out of sight when their kyouiku mama really starts to insist that they spend more time preparing for high school or college exams and not playing so much ball, which is still seen as largely frivolous (the same attitude exists in Taiwan, but even more so). In the Dominican, for a poor or working class kid, sports is seen as a way to move up whereas in Japan joining a big company performs that function.

Too, you have to consider the relatively poor player development that Japanese teams do. In the Dominican, MLB teams will sign those players when they are sixten and thus can have them for their entire developmental phase. In Japan, a ballclub is still seen as a glorified billboard (call it "koukoku yakyuu") and not as an end unto itself as teams are here (well, at least unless you're Disney or the Tribune Company). Therefore, not only do you have non-baseball people running the franchises, but you also have little thought given to developing an extensive web of scouts. A sign of this is the recnt spate of articles about who might be the top choices in the upcoming draft. There are currently three names mentioned, all in the Tokyo Big Six League (Tsuyoshi Wada, Kazuhito Tadano, and one named Ishigaki. There isn't the attention given to a whole plethora of prospects that you see in Baseball America, which is then picked up elsewhere in the press.

There are a host of other reasons that I won't go into here because this is long enough. I do have some gripes with the way the media views Japanese players. If I have the time soon, I'll take that up in my Baseball Guru articles rather than burning more bandwidth here.

But getting back to Morgan, he toured Japan with the Big Red Machine and they had a pretty easy time of it beating the Japanese team(s?). I mean, when Champ Summers hits like five or six homers in a week, you wouldn't have all that strong an impression, either. There may be an ethnic competition factor here for Morgan, too, but that's just a thought that flashed through my mind with no concrete evidence to back it up. So let's ease up a bit here. Oh, and last I looked, Shinjo was hitting about .180 and So Taguchi was in the minors and Kida is still wandering the states begging for a job. By the same token, though, when a Latin player fails (Reuben Rivera) nobody says, "Latin players still have something to prove."

I agree with every opinion written here. Japan is not some Eastern European country or some poor Caribbean or South American country. Japan will never be like what happened to Russia in Ice Hockey. Japan is the second biggest economy in the world. Their economy is bigger than several major European countries put together. As long as NPB has the 9 year rule, there will never be a large influx of Japanese player to MLB. Most Japanese players are content and happy playing and living in Japan. Many of them will have a hard time adjusting culturtally. Matsuzaka for example will be completely lost. I've been saying this over and over again, IT'S NOT WHETHER THE PLAYER HAS THE ABILITY but WHETHER YOU CAN EAT HOT DOGS AND HAMBURGERS EVERY DAY AND NOT RAMEN, SUSHI, GYUUDON OR COMBINI, and watch Seinfeld or ER and not Downtown or Hamasaki Ayumi!!! Most Japanese youngsters are too spoiled and to comfortable living in Japan!!!

As for Joe Morgan, he is biased. The man was a great player and I would like to remember him that way.

One interesting note about Ishii. They start noticing that Japanese athletes are really different!!! I've been sensing this all along that some of these high profile athletes in Japan really do have different taste compared to American athlete. I've seen many Japanese ball players over the years, but its true that many of them indeed carry designer purses and other "girlyman"-type items. Well, what can you say about Ishii? He is the man who dated KANDA UNO!

I've seen many Japanese ball
> players over the years, but its true that many of
> them indeed carry designer purses and other
> "girlyman"-type items. Well, what can you say about
> Ishii? He is the man who dated KANDA UNO!

Dating Kanda Uno is cool, very cool. But, all things considered, I'd rather be married to Kisa Ayako than dating Kanda Uno...

The purse thing sounds like another typical, "Look at them zany Japanese" type story, of which there are just too many. But I'd like to see what Gary has to write about the American press before I add my complaints.

Dear CFiJ,

Can you please tell me who is Kanda Uno? Is she a huge celebrity in Japan? Also, who is Kisa Ayako? Is she Kazuhisa Ishii

> Dear CFiJ,
>
> Can you please tell me who is Kanda Uno? Is she a
> huge celebrity in Japan? Also, who is Kisa Ayako?
> Is she Kazuhisa Ishii

I'm probably in the minority on this one, but I can't stand that little girl. I'm not a Satchi fan, but I applauded her interfering with Ishii and Uno back then. (Satchi, for those of you who don't know, is former Nomura-kantoku's tax evading wife.) It seemed to me that Ishii was struggling while datinging that chick, but settled down after the Uno ban.

> First, let's not be too hard on Morgan. In a general
> sense, he's right. The volume of Japanese players
> will never touch the numbers coming out of the
> Dominican Republic.

Yes, I tried to make this point. I agree with Morgan's conclusion, but not with the reasoning that takes him there.

> Why? Well, first of all, there are Japanese stars
> that began their careers in the industrial leagues,
> where they have to play three years before they can
> be drafted. Michihiro Ogasawara and Nobuhiko
> Matsunaka are two such examples. They will then have
> to stay in Japan once they are drafted and signed for
> nine years before they become eligible for free
> agency. Few teams are going to post players unless
> they are in just such bad financial straits that they
> feel compelled to do so. Consequently, those players
> will generally be over 30 by the time they gain free
> agency (provided that they haven't spent substantial
> time injured as Matsunaka has) and when you hit that
> mark you become a lot less desirable to an MLB team.
> Tomoaki Kanemoto, who would have made a pretty good
> MLB outfielder if he came over five years ago, will
> get no offers since he is 34-35.

I would add another factor that I forgot to include in my original post. It will generally always be cheaper for MLB to go to Latin America and sign poor players on the cheap than it will be to pay $1 million+ for an established player from NPB.

> As for the popularity of baseball in Japan, it is
> still tops among the major sports. However, whatever
> you say about the size of the Japanese population is
> negated by the fact that most parents don't raise or
> encourage their kids to try to become professional
> athletes. So a lot of those little leaguers will drop
> out of sight when their kyouiku mama really
> starts to insist that they spend more time preparing
> for high school or college exams and not playing so
> much ball, which is still seen as largely frivolous
> (the same attitude exists in Taiwan, but even more
> so). In the Dominican, for a poor or working class
> kid, sports is seen as a way to move up whereas in
> Japan joining a big company performs that function.

I respectfully disagree. We're talking a population 16.25 times the Dominican Republic's population. In a country where the main high school sport is baseball, unlike in the U.S. where it is football. The talent pool is not smaller, if it's not significantly larger, than that of the DR.

> Too, you have to consider the relatively poor player
> development that Japanese teams do. In the Dominican,
> MLB teams will sign those players when they are
> sixten and thus can have them for their entire
> developmental phase. In Japan, a ballclub is still
> seen as a glorified billboard (call it "koukoku
> yakyuu") and not as an end unto itself as teams
> are here (well, at least unless you're Disney or the
> Tribune Company). Therefore, not only do you have
> non-baseball people running the franchises, but you
> also have little thought given to developing an
> extensive web of scouts. A sign of this is the recnt
> spate of articles about who might be the top choices
> in the upcoming draft. There are currently three
> names mentioned, all in the Tokyo Big Six League
> (Tsuyoshi Wada, Kazuhito Tadano, and one named
> Ishigaki. There isn't the attention given to a whole
> plethora of prospects that you see in Baseball
> America, which is then picked up elsewhere in the
> press.

That Japanese teams don't have a wide scouting net doesn't mean that MLB can't sign players. A large talent pool high in baseball skills is there to be taken advantage of. Certainly, Japanese teams could draw from it, but if they don't, MLB teams could, in a hypothetical sense.

The key here is Morgan's comment "from a skill level, there are not as many players in Japan who could play in the majors as there is in the Dominican". This is the bone I have to pick with Morgan. Players signed in the Dominican Republic are signed because of their tools, not because of their skills. MLB teams gather a whole bunch of young guys aged 14-20, teach them the rudiments of the game, sign the ones who have potential, and then send them off to the minors to develop their skills.

Now, in contrast to the raw, untrained pool of Dominican prospects, in Japan there is a much larger pool of young men aged 16-22 who have been steeped in the fundamentals of baseball. Who have played at a high level competitively on a national stage. Who are in excellent physical condition, even if they do not pump as much iron as American high schoolers might.

And if we're going to talk beyond high school, there are colleges who devote as much time and energy to their baseball programs as American colleges devote to their football programs. The industrial leagues certainly work as a kind of low minor league.

If we go on to the top professional level, there are plenty of star players who have the "skills" to play in MLB, and any number of average players who'd be at least as good as Jose Hernandez.

I think where people get tripped up is the idea that a player has to contribute at the Major League level right away. Which is silly. There's no reason that MLB teams couldn't find good prospects, put them in the minor leagues, and control their development from the time they are 18, just like in the U.S. There's no reason why average players like Shinjo or Taguchi couldn't spend a little time in the minor leagues acclimating to the North American style of ball. In fact, that's what Taguchi's doing right now. After struggling through spring training, he's now brought his average up to .266 down in Triple-A, and has been hitting quite well.

There are all sorts of reasons why Japan won't overtake the DR in terms of influx of players, but "skill level" is not one of them.

> But getting back to Morgan, he toured Japan with the
> Big Red Machine and they had a pretty easy time of it
> beating the Japanese team(s?). I mean, when Champ
> Summers hits like five or six homers in a week, you
> wouldn't have all that strong an impression, either.

Maybe not, but I would hope that I would have the presence of mind to realize that things may have changed since my brief tour some 30 years ago.

> There may be an ethnic competition factor here for
> Morgan, too, but that's just a thought that flashed
> through my mind with no concrete evidence to back it
> up. So let's ease up a bit here. Oh, and last I
> looked, Shinjo was hitting about .180 and So Taguchi
> was in the minors and Kida is still wandering the
> states begging for a job.

Shinjo's hitting .233 now, and seems to have found his groove. He hit a two-run single in tonights game versus my beloved Cubbies that tied it up. Luckily the Cubs were able to pull away. Taguchi, as I have mentioned, is improving down in Triple-A, and that Japanese players may need some time acclimating in the minors is hardly evidence that the Dominican Republic has a higher "skill level". It's not like these Dominican kids are going straight from the academies to the Major League teams. For every Kida there's an Ishii, and until he slammed his garage door on his finger, Komiyama was doing solid work for the Mets. In any event, three position players is far too small a sample for Morgan to look at and judge the state of Japanese ball.

> By the same token, though,
> when a Latin player fails (Reuben Rivera) nobody
> says, "Latin players still have something to prove."

Well, no, but there have been enough successful Latin players to off-set the failures. But that's basically my point. Ichiro, Shinjo and Taguchi are not by themselves representative of the state of Japanese baseball, and looking at the structure of baseball in the Dominican Republic vs. the structure of baseball in Japan, I can't see how anyone could assume that Japanese players don't have the "skill level" to play in the Majors. A team of all Japanese All-Stars may not be able to beat a team made up of the best from around the world (including Japan), but that proves nothing about Japanese baseball.

My main point was that both Morgan and Neyer were propogating uninformed opinions, and I just wanted to balance that out...

I agree with you in that there are many players who could play in the big leagues. As a player myself I feel that there is little comparison defensively speaking. And just plain hand eye coordination Japanese players are much more difficult to strike out. Joe may have been a good player but lacks knowledege in in everything else, which isn't so good when you're an analyst/colorman. He shows ignorance every other time he opens his mouth. I know there are better prospects in the NPB than most scouts realize.

- Oh, and last I looked, Shinjo was hitting about .180 and So Taguchi was in the minors and Kida is still wandering the states begging for a job.

Shinjo's hitting .233 now, and seems to have found his groove. He hit a two-run single in tonights game versus my beloved Cubbies that tied it up. Luckily the Cubs were able to pull away. Taguchi, as I have mentioned, is improving down in Triple-A.

Shinjo certainly had his moments the past couple of games. (I had the pleasure of being there both nights. Cold, but fun.) Still, hitting .233 is nothing to crow about, and neither is his .284 OBA and .384 Slg. -- an OPS of 668. We're not talking Vladimir Guerrero here.

I'd say Taguchi has gone from pathetic to mediocore at best. He's slugging a whopping .422, which, combined with his equally weak .319 OBA, gives him an OPS of 741. So would be lucky to produce at Shinjo's level in the majors.

A team of all Japanese All-Stars may not be able to beat a team made up of the best from around the world (including Japan), but that proves nothing about Japanese baseball.

How about a team from the D.R.? As you pointed out, Japan has a huge advantage in terms of population. Nevertheless, my money's on the Dominicans.

C: Alberto Castillo*
1st: Albert Pujols
2nd: Alfonso Soriano
3rd: Aramis Ramirez
SS: Cristian Guzman
LF: Sammy Sosa
CF: Raul Mondesi
RF: Vladimir Guerrero

Bench: Juan Encarnacion, Rafael Furca, Carlos Pena, Henry Rodriguez, Fernando Tatis, Jose Vizcaino

SP: Pedro Martinez, Pedro Astacio, Bartolo Colon, Ramon Martinez, Juan Cruz

Bullpen: Armando Benitez, Antonio Alfonseca, Jose Mesa, Julian Tavarez, Felix Heredia, Jesus Sanchez

Coach: Felipe Alou

*Alberto who? I know; believe it or not, he's the only major league catcher I could find that was born in the D.R.

> Shinjo certainly had his moments the past couple of
> games. (I had the pleasure of being there both
> nights. Cold, but fun.) Still, hitting .233 is
> nothing to crow about, and neither is his .284 OBA
> and .384 Slg. -- an OPS of 668. We're not talking
> Vladimir Guerrero here.

No, but it's early and Shinjo has never been a top level offensive star. My point has always been that the sample size being used to judge Japanese baseball is much too small.

> I'd say Taguchi has gone from pathetic to mediocore
> at best. He's slugging a whopping .422, which,
> combined with his equally weak .319 OBA, gives him an
> OPS of 741. So would be lucky to produce at Shinjo's
> level in the majors.

We don't know what he'll eventually do. He obviously needs time to adjust. The motion of North American pitchers is 1-2-3, instead of 1-2-and-3 as in Japan. That's going to give a Japanese player some problems, particularly one who isn't a hitting star in the first place. Taguchi wasn't given the opportunity Ichiro was. Adjusting to life in the minors as well is an added difficulty. Again, it's far too early to use Taguchi as any kind of standard by which to judge Japanese baseball.

> How about a team from the D.R.? As you pointed out,
> Japan has a huge advantage in terms of population.
> Nevertheless, my money's on the Dominicans.

It is my belief that any team made up of the best of only one group will lose a long series to any team made up of the best of many groups. That goes for Americans, Dominicans, Mexicans, Cubans, and Japanese.

If you're asking whether a Dominican All-Star team would beat a Japanese All-Star team, I'd call it an even match.

> > I'd say Taguchi has gone from pathetic to mediocore
> > at best. He's slugging a whopping .422, which,
> > combined with his equally weak .319 OBA, gives him
> an
> > OPS of 741. So would be lucky to produce at
> Shinjo's
> > level in the majors.
>
> We don't know what he'll eventually do. He obviously
> needs time to adjust. The motion of North American
> pitchers is 1-2-3, instead of 1-2-and-3 as in Japan.
> That's going to give a Japanese player some
> problems, particularly one who isn't a hitting star
> in the first place. Taguchi wasn't given the
> opportunity Ichiro was. Adjusting to life in the
> minors as well is an added difficulty. Again, it's
> far too early to use Taguchi as any kind of standard
> by which to judge Japanese baseball.

Do you honestly think that Taguchi will make the Cardinals' roster this year before September call-ups? That's a long shot at best. We're not talking about some 21-year-old prospect. So's 33 and struggling against AAA pitching. I admire him for pursuing his dream but he'll almost certainly never be an everyday player in the majors. I do agree that Taguchi isn't the best that Japanese baseball has to offer, however.

> > How about a team from the D.R.? As you pointed
> out,
> > Japan has a huge advantage in terms of population.
> > Nevertheless, my money's on the Dominicans.
>
> It is my belief that any team made up of the best of
> only one group will lose a long series to any team
> made up of the best of many groups. That goes for
> Americans, Dominicans, Mexicans, Cubans, and
> Japanese.

Perhaps, although I believe that a US vs. the World All-Star game would be pretty even. The US has the deepest pool of talent to draw from.

> If you're asking whether a Dominican All-Star team
> would beat a Japanese All-Star team, I'd call it an
> even match.

Fair enough but I disagree again. Any major league team with that all-Dominican roster would be the favorites to win the World Series. I'd be happy to have that team in my fantasy league.

> Do you honestly think that Taguchi will make the
> Cardinals' roster this year before September
> call-ups? That's a long shot at best. We're not
> talking about some 21-year-old prospect. So's 33 and
> struggling against AAA pitching. I admire him for
> pursuing his dream but he'll almost certainly never
> be an everyday player in the majors. I do agree that
> Taguchi isn't the best that Japanese baseball has to
> offer, however.

I truly don't know and any prediction I made would only be a guess. It depends on what happens with the big team. Eduardo Perez is not the best defensively. If he struggles while Taguchi is hitting well, they could switch the two.

The thing to remember is that it's early. Taguchi got off to a terrible start, mostly like due to the disruption in his usual preparation. But he's steadily improving. He's now raised his average to .243 and seems to be getting more comfortable. Nomo didn't have a stellar record before the Dodgers called him up in 1995. Major League teams are funny that way. A player could have pretty mediocre stats, but if he's had a really good month and the club has a need, they'll call him up. I can see that happening with Taguchi.

> The thing to remember is that it's early. Taguchi
> got off to a terrible start, mostly like due to the
> disruption in his usual preparation. But he's
> steadily improving. He's now raised his average to
> .243 and seems to be getting more comfortable

Wait... improving? Back on April 24, you wrote, "After struggling through spring training, he's now brought his average up to .266 down in Triple-A, and has been hitting quite well." But now his average is .243; it's dropped 23 points in the past couple of days. That doesn't seem like much of an improvement to me.

You've got to remember that talent doesn't = success! That could be the most talented list ever but it doesn't mean Beans. Baseball isn't always talent, that's why it's a great game. Everyone has a chance. Also Dominican players generally take 5-6 years to develop. Then factor in how quickly they've all aged this season. When a 21 year old phenom overnight turns 27 that can take some legitimacy from your opinion. Japanese players would be considered more polished with less ceiling. But most never reach this ceiling anyway.

This is a very minor correction for Rob Neyer, but the WFL (World Football League) is now known as NFL Europe (National Football League Europe).

Wait... improving? Back on April 24, you wrote, "After struggling through spring training, he's now brought his average up to .266 down in Triple-A, and has been hitting quite well." But now his average is .243; it's dropped 23 points in the past couple of days. That doesn't seem like much of an improvement to me.

I was a bit bewildered by this. It is true, I did say he was batting .266 on the 24. I wasn't sure if it was a typo, though I did think Taguchi was improving at the plate. I scoured the net for Memphis Redbirds boxscores, and finally found them at the Pacific Coast League's website. (In contrast to MLB.com, the PCL website is much better than the teams' individual ones...)

Anyway, here's how Taguchi has hit to date:

Apr. 4 - 0-3 0-3 .000 Notes: 1 K, 1 BB
Apr. 5 - 1-4 1-7 .143 Notes: 1 HR, 1 run, 1 RBI, K
Apr. 6 - 0-4 1-11 .091
Apr. 7 - 0-3 1-14 .071 Notes: 1 K
Apr. 8 - 2-4 3-18 .167
Apr. 9 - 1-3 4-21 .190 Notes: 1 BB
Apr.10 - 1-4 5-25 .200 Notes: 1 RBI
Apr.11 - 1-4 6-29 .207 Notes: 1 2B, 1 K
Apr.12 - 0-4 6-33 .182 Notes: 1 run
Apr.14 - 0-2 6-35 .171
Apr.16 - 1-4 7-39 .179 Notes: 1 K, 1 SB
Apr.17 - 1-4 8-43 .186 Notes: 1 2B, 1 K, 2 RBI
Apr.18 - 3-4 11-47 .234 Notes: 1 2B, 1 RBI, 2 runs, 1 K
Apr.19 - 2-5 13-52 .250 Notes: 1 2B, 1 RBI
Apr.20 - 0-2 13-54 .241 Notes: 2 K
Apr.21 - 2-4 15-58 .259 Notes: 1 run
Apr.22 - 1-4 16-62 .258
Apr.23 - 1-2 17-64 .266 Notes: 1 HR, 1 run, 1 RBI
Apr.25 - 0-4 17-68 .250 Notes: 1 K
Apr.26 - 0-2 17-70 .243 Notes: 1 K
Apr.27 - 1-4 18-74 .243 Notes: 1 K, 1 run

Indeed, Taguchi did fall from .266 to .243. Nevertheless, I stand by my original conclusion. Two oh-fer days brought his average down, and his slow start didn't give him much of a cushion to fall back on, but he's consistently hitting the ball. If you look at his average, it's been a steady climb with occassional dips. He's actually in the top 5 in almost all team batting categories. And it's still early. As the weather warms up he'll start hitting better, and I won't be at all surprised if he gets called up this summer.