Quality of Play in Japan

Japanese baseball has been, as a whole, at AAA ball or above since at least sometime in the 1950's. This is somewhat deceptive due to the fact the average is composed of MLB All-Star caliber players (think Oh, K. Nomura, Nagashima, Nomo, Ichiro) but then to balance them off, there are guys below AAA level playing in Japan. This is the conclusion of my own studies (see my articles on Oh and 2003 possibles), and other researchers such as Clay Davenport of Baseball Prospectus. See also Bill McNeil's Baseball's Other Stars.

Jim Albright

- Ichiro Suzuki won the 2001 American League MVP; but, aside from him, no other Japanese player in the Majors is doing great. They are good, but not great.

I'd classify Kazuhiro Sasaki as a great closer with his career 2.98 ERA, .201 BAA and 1.05 WHIP; and Hideo Nomo was amazing his first two seasons -- 2.54 ERA his rookie year, 3.19 ERA the year after -- before injuries slowed him down.

Clay Davenport of Baseball Prospectus ranks the level of play in Japan between AAA and MLB, leaning closer to the latter.

Most experts make the same assessment as Jim Albright and "1908":

• NPB has been between MLB and AAA.
• NPB players are better on fundamentals, defense, and finesse than MLB.
• MLB has more power than NPB.

I don't think I'd agree about there being a qualitative difference between Japanese and American baseball as regards to defense or fundamentals. Both are pretty solid on the whole, and both have some pretty shoddy defensive players as well.

But the game is played quite differently at times, which tends to focus attention on NPB's fundamental skills. I saw a game last year in which the #3 batter came up with 2 on, no one out. In the U.S., I doubt you'd ever see a bunt. His job would have been to get the runner home. In Japan, he bunted.

The American game is, overall, more power-oriented, I agree. Part of that has to do with the expansion that has placed many pitchers on major league mounds who a few years ago would never have made it out of AAA, or even AA. Another part is the focus these days on body-building and strength. I would be curious to see a study about how sharp an increase in power stats have been noted in recent years against the top half or third of MLB pitchers.

Eric