A Japanese Team Should Sign Dallas McPherson

Did he clear waivers? Did he refused to go to the minors? Only then can a Japanese team do something.

I don't think that's correct. All the reports I've seen say that Dallas McPherson was "released" by the Marlins, not that the Marlins were seeking to have him clear waivers so they could send him down to the majors. See, for example, Sports Illustrated.

If he has been released, McPherson can sign with anyone anywhere, whether the New York Yankees (who some commentators think might be interested in McPherson with ARod out two months) or a team in Japan.

I've seen him play for the Angels. While he does have some power, I really do think that Japanese teams do not need his service.

Any particular reason? McPherson strikes out a lot, but so do Tuffy and Alex, and McPherson's 2004 and 2008 seasons look an awful lot like Alex's 2000, and Randy Bass's 1979 and 1980.

McPherson is probably lousy with the glove, but he can always DH.

Dallas has trouble with breaking balls. He can only hit the high fastball. In Japan, they throw more breaking balls than fast balls than in America. So it won't go well for Dallas.

That's a good reason. However, I still think he's worth the risk of a one-year contract. Here's why:

US MINORS        AB     H    HR BA   OBP     SLG  OPS
Alex Cabrera*   1,588  453   86 .285 .339    .511 .850
Randy Bass      3,859 1,135 238 .294[.394]**.540[.934]
Tuffy Rhodes*** 3,368   939  54 .279 .372   .402  .774
Dallas McPherson 2,273  673 150 .296 .384   .586  .970

US MAJORS
Tuffy Rhodes      590   134  13 .224 .310   .349  .659
Alex Cabrera       80    21   5 .263 .299   .500  .799
Randy Bass        325    69   9 .212 .284   .326  .610
Dallas McPherson  371    91  18 .245 .298   .458  .756

Japan
Tuffy Rhodes    5,979 1,701 442 .284 .380   .558  .938
Alex Cabrera    3,523 1,082 309 .307 .405   .622 1.027
Randy Bass      2,208   743 202 .337 .418   .660 1.078

                   Age as of 4/1 of 1st Year in Japan
Tuffy       		27 yrs, 7 mos
Alex        		29 yrs, 3 mos
Randy Bass	        29 yrs, 0 mos
McPherson(as of 4/1/09)	28 yrs, 8 mos

* Alex Cabrera is truly a modern, international player. He is originally from Venezuala, played in Taiwan in 1999, and probably played in Latin American pro leagues in 1998 and 1999 and before 1992.

** My source for minor league statistics is The Baseball Cube which does not have OBP stats for Randy Bass's minor league seasons from 1972 through 1977. The OBP guestimate provided is based on his minor league OBP for his four minor league seasons between 1978 and 1982, when his OBP was consistently more than 100 points above his batting average. I am assuming that his OBP were not quite so ridiculously high earlier in his minor league career, as this is a skill that tends to increase with experience.

*** Tuffy had a power explosion at age 24. After hitting 14 homeruns in 7 minor league seasons, in 1992 at AAA Omaha, he hit 30 HRs and 43 doubles in 490 at-bats. The rest, as they say, is history.

Of these four players, McPherson has arguably the best numbers at both the major league and U.S. minor league level. This does not mean, of course, that he will necessarily going to be as good as the others in Japan, but he doesn't need to be as good to help a Japanese team. Maybe more breaking pitches in Japan would give him a problem, but I still think a Japanese team would not be making a mistake to give him a one year contract and find out.

SoftBank Hawks thinking like I do? NPB Tracker thinks so.

He's got similar minor league numbers to Dan Johnson, who signed with Yokohama this season. We'll how it turns out. [Dan Johnson on The Baseball Cube]

Yeah, I've posted a couple of comments on this site this off-season, saying how much I liked the Dan Johnson and Jamie D'Antona signings. Guys who consistently put up big minor league numbers are much more likely (eventually) to put up big major league or Japanese league numbers than those who don't.

I'm advocating that the Hawks sign McPherson, but Johnson is a much more patient hitter. McPherson has better power and can play a harder position, so he's valuable too. SoftBank probably wouldn't have to pay McPherson the $1.1 million Johnson is getting either.

It really depends on what kind of offers, if any, McPherson receives from the other Major League teams. So far, the SoftBank Hawks rumor is the only I've seen on the Internet about where McPherson might end up.

If no Major League team offers McPherson anything more than a minor league contract, I think he'd have to seriously consider a Japanese offer in the $550,000 to $800,000 range.