Hanshin Crumbles to Carp

Yeah, it was pretty awful. The Tigers look as if they've given up on the season.

But it does highlight the fact that there's a fine line between first and second class in this league. They're all pros, and even if the Carp can't come up with performances like this consistently week after week, they're showing at the very least that they're competitive.

- I did like SanSpo's comment on Igawa (that he might as well learn English and go to MLB because he's no longer good enough to be Hanshin's ace - rough translation).

Are you so sure that Igawa has been that bad? Let's take a look at Igawa's stats?

W/L- 10-8(.556)
ERA- 3.28
G- 21
CG- 4
IP- 151
H- 135
ER- 55
HR- 12
BB/K- 39/137
BB/9- 2.32
K/9- 8.17
WHIP- 1.15

[2006 Hanshin Tigers Stats - Borisov's]

The truth of the matter is, no one on the Hanshin staff is qualified to be the staff ace. Secondly, Hanshin has been plagued by numerous injuries throughout this year to their bullpen, making the bullpen a question mark, so what is Okada to do? Without the J-F-K trio, there is only so much Okada can do. Also, Hanshin is receiving very little offense whatsoever as of late.

Without Igawa, Hanshin would be in a worse position than what they are today. Though as of right now, I must say I find it hard for Hanshin to dig themselves out of this hole that they find themselves in, at 59-50-3(.541), 9 games behind the Dragons [2006 CL Standings - Borisov's].

I was actually just enjoying the comment, though Igawa's collapses do leave me tearing my hair out. Really, in the Central League at the moment you only have two A class sides (Tigers and Dragons), one A/B side (Swallows), and three B class sides who firmly belong in the basement. By playing so badly against a B class team the Tigers have ruined any chance they have of winning the pennant (Swallows won two games against the Dragons). Poor preparation, execution, and coaching win out again.

- By playing so badly against a B class team the Tigers have ruined any chance they have of winning the pennant.

Or perhaps playing so badly against the other A class side. Remember, the Tigers are 2-11 against Chunichi and 8-5-2 against Hiroshima. So the Carp are not the problem - it's the Dragons.

BTW, Chunichi have an even worse record against the Carp: 6-7-1.

Yes, you are right that the losses to the Dragons are important, but the Dragons have lost the last three in a row. At the same time so have the Tigers - they had a chance to make a late run for the pennant, but seem to have given up. If they had won their last four games they would be just five behind the Dragons. The sweep by the Carp (apart from being embarrassing) was the end of that chance.

I know what you're saying, but I'm of the opinion that the end of their chance happened with the last sweep they suffered against the Dragons. That was the real soul crusher I'm afraid. IMHO.

Perhaps I am expecting too much from them. I am expecting them to exhibit the same determination as non-Japanese teams and never give up until the last game (Hoshino's never, never, never surrender). If they had won today they would be four games behind the Dragons. Instead it was an absolute debacle and they remain nine games behind. Beating the Dragons was not so important, but beating the B class teams was.

- Beating the Dragons was not so important ...

Mmmm. But falling 2-11 to your rival is hardly unimportant in my book. Apart from the psychological aspect, if they had split those games the Tigers would be well within striking distance. OK, beating the B-class teams also helps, but as I pointed out, the Dragons have a losing record against the Carp, and they haven't dominated the BayStars either (in fact they've lost four out of the last five against Yokohama).

My point is that if it's important for the Tigers to beat the B class teams, then it's just as important for the Dragons to do the same.

So let's see what the record shows (as of 8/26):

Dragons
vs. BayStars 6-4-2
vs. Giants 13-5
vs. Carp 6-7-1
vs. Swallows 8-6
vs. Tigers 11-2
vs. B-class teams: 25-16-3

Tigers
vs. BayStars 14-4
vs. Giants 6-9
vs. Carp 8-5-2
vs. Swallows 8-8-1
vs. Dragons 2-11
vs. B-class teams: 28-18-2

If you compare both teams' record against the three B-class teams, the Tigers are actually ahead by 1.5 games. Both the Tigers and the Dragons have owned one of them, both teams have a losing record against another, and a winning record against the third.

The conclusion? The Tigers have been just as able to beat the B-class teams as the Dragons. The record against the Swallows is inconclusive. Which means the deciding factor in this pennant race is the Tigers' inability to beat the Dragons.

- Beating the Dragons was not so important, ...

Huh?! I'd say beating the team in front of you, was important.

Beating the team in front of you is not so important given that there are four other teams who you also play a lot. If we look at Hoshino's Tigers in 2003 they actually lost the series to the Dragons (2nd Place) 13-15 but beat the BayStars and Carp 22-6 and 19-9 respectively. By the end of the season they were struggling and it was only this enormous advantage against the B class teams which enabled them to hold on. In 2004 the winning Dragons lost both series to the other A class teams (13-15 vs. Swallows, 12-13-1 vs. Giants), but won all the series against the B class teams (18-10 vs. Tigers, 18-10 vs. Carp and 18-8-2 vs. BayStars).

Where the Tigers failed is in playing B class teams this year, even with a nice winning record against them. The Dragons are playing at or above their full potential and the Tigers aren't. In the Inter-league games the Tigers drew the series with Rakuten 3-3. They should have won it 5-1 or 6-0 given that Rakuten has not improved. Likewise they should have won more games against Nippon Ham and Seibu (I would not suggest they should have won the series against Seibu but they should have tied it).

Factoring in this hypothetical situation would put the Tigers and Dragons level or the Tigers in front. It would have been nice to win more against the Dragons, and as Mijow rightly points out, it would have cut the margin. However, it isn't essential, but the matches against the B class teams are. The series against the Carp was really the last chance to take the league.

Any way you look at it, a win against anybody is important.

The point that Christopher seems to be making is that a championship is often won or lost according to the record against the B-class teams. Or more specifically, completely dominating at least one of the B-class teams.

Let's look at the champion teams in the Central League over the last decade.

Year    Team       W   L  T  vs. A  vs. B  vs. Pa
1996  1 Giants    77  53  0  0.558  0.615  
      2 Dragons   72  58  0  0.442  0.628  
1997  1 Swallows  83  52  2  0.519  0.679  
      2 BayStars  72  63  0  0.556  0.519  
1998  1 BayStars  79  56  1  0.537  0.617  
      2 Dragons   75  60  1  0.519  0.580  
1999  1 Dragons   81  54  0  0.574  0.617  
      2 Giants    75  60  0  0.481  0.605  
2000  1 Giants    78  57  0  0.630  0.543  
      2 Dragons   70  65  0  0.444  0.568  
2001  1 Swallows  76  58  6  0.537  0.588  
      2 Giants    75  63  2  0.571  0.524  
2002  1 Giants    86  52  2  0.607  0.634  
      2 Swallows  74  62  4  0.473  0.593  
2003  1 Tigers    87  51  2  0.545  0.687  
      2 Dragons   73  66  1  0.518  0.530  
2004  1 Dragons   79  56  3  0.472  0.659  
      2 Swallows  72  64  2  0.455  0.580  
2005  1 Tigers    87  54  5  0.585  0.636  0.618
      2 Dragons   79  66  1  0.558  0.606  0.417

Only in 2000 and 2001 did the first place team not have a winning percentage against the B-class teams of .600 or more. However, the 2nd place team in each of those years didn't either.

There is a perception that the first place team often completely dominates one or more of the B-class teams. I think that this is what Christopher is driving at. And the 2004 Dragons, having a losing record against other A-class teams, gives a strong reinforcement of that perception. But as you can see, you generally need to break even against the A-class teams to take first place.

- But as you can see, you generally need to break even against the A-class teams to take first place.

Which is of course what the Tigers are not doing this year.

Anyway, I do understand Christopher's point, and he's right in saying that the series against Hiroshima was probably the Tigers' very last chance to pull it out of the fire.

But I think he was being a touch optimistic. I really think I would go back to that Chunichi series of August 11-13. For me that was the end - especially after seeing them lose the first game by a whisker and then watching the 11-1 whipping on the Saturday and the 13-5 debacle on the Sunday.

And I think they knew it, too. It's been downhill ever since.

Just adding on to what Westbay-san said: I managed to break down Hanshin's record versus each team this year, painstaking I must say. With the help of CL Standings [TBS Radio- In Japanese].

Dragons 2-11-0
Swallows 8-8-1
Carp 8-5-2
Giants 6-9-0
BayStars 14-4-0
Marines 5-1-0
Hawks 3-3-0
Lions 2-4-0
Fighters 3-3-0
Eagles 3-3-0
Buffaloes 5-1-0

As you see this year, the Dragons, Giants, and Swallows have been Hanshin's problem. Hanshin has dominated B-class teams such as the Carp and BayStars, and for the rare exception of the Seibu Lions dominated inter-league play. Like I've said, Hanshin's major problem is the Chunichi Dragons.

Exactly! How the heck can you say not beating the team in front of you is not important?! I guess some of us grow up in a baseball culture and some don't! Each to their own!

If you had read the post in full you would have noticed I said it was not so important. The argument I advanced was that by beating other teams you could have a losing record against the team in front of you and still be in a position to take the lead. It's really quite elementary if you do the maths. This situation is the same as that which the Tigers found themselves in. However, failures against the B class Giants and Rakuten deprived them of the opportunity.

As Mijow noted, it was a remote chance but wasn't outside the realms of possibility. However, being swept by the Carp and the flaccid performance against the Giants really finished any chance of that happening. If there is a frustrating point to all this it is that I feel the Tigers gave up too soon.

- However, failures against the B class Giants and Rakuten deprived them of the opportunity.

But what about Chunichi's "failures" against this year's B-class teams? Don't they count as well?

Vs. Marines: 2-4
Vs. Carp: 6-7

You can't be selective. I think it's painfully obvious that Hanshin's inability to beat Chunichi has been the difference. Both teams have similar records against everybody else, including a couple of failures and one big success against B-class teams.

How many games are the Tigers behind? 9.

What's their record against Chunichi? 2-11 - a difference of 9.

Couldn't be simpler.

Your point has a lot of merit. However, Chunichi are playing to their potential and they are doing well where it counts. The comparison using the Marines is not justified. Even though the Marines may end up being in B class, during the inter-league they were the hot team and won it for the second time (not B class at all) which only really leaves the Carp.

Hanshin's problem is that, failing to beat the Dragons, they are not performing well enough beating the other teams to compensate for this. Beating the Dragons is not essential (just as beating the Carp isn't essential for the Dragons).

There is more than one way to skin a cat as they say. The failure to exploit this other alternative is the problem for Hanshin.

- The comparison using the Marines is not justified.

Sorry, Christopher, but I'm tearing my hair out with frustration here.

You say the Marines are not a true B-class team because they were hot during the inter league period. But by the same token, you could also make an exception for the Giants because they had a hot streak at the beginning of the season, and were threatening to run away with the pennant. They certainly have a lot of talent on the roster.

B-class means the bottom three teams (using the usual NPB definition). The Marines are now 8 games behind third spot, so they're well and truly in B-class territory, as are the Giants.

I understand what you're trying to say, but you can't simply ignore any factor you like just because it doesn't support your position.

- I understand what you're trying to say, but you can't simply ignore any factor you like just because it doesn't support your position.

Well this is what we both do at times. However, you are bringing in a team the Marines which played a limited series and then no more games against the Dragons. When they played the Dragons they were not B class and as such don't really impact on the performance of that team except as an A class team. The Giants were already playing like a B class team by the inter-league and continued to do so. If the Marines were to play the Dragons now and perform in the same way you could safely claim that they were B class and then my argument would be shaky. But as the winners of the Inter-league, that was not a B class performance.

By talking about a limited period you have to accept limited conditions as well. At the time the Marines were A class and should be judged in that way.

Hanshin's play against Chiba isn't the problem. It is their play against Chunichi and Yomiuri that is preventing Hanshin from going that one extra step.

Hanshin has dominated most B-class teams minus Yomiuri, which has a small affect on Hanshin's performance this year, I'll grant you that.

But, Hanshin has to defeat the Dragons, too, and with 8 games left against them, this is their major problem, hence their 2-11-0 record. B-Class teams haven't been their problem, they have been able to beat, with the exception of Yomiuri, which can pose problems with the way they are playing this year.

Hanshin just hasn't found a way all year to beat the Dragons, have no definite ace, have been plagued by injuries, Imaoka has been a major disappointment after his 147 RBI season last year, the bullpen has been a question mark, and not to mention missed time, too.

All of this aside though, Hanshin has to prove they can beat Chunichi, which they just haven't. If they can't beat the team in front of them, with 8 games left with them, it will be a long, hard way to go.

I think you misunderstand - we weren't talking about Hanshin/Chiba or about Hanshin/Chunichi. The problem is that given the poor performance against Chunichi, Hanshin is not pursuing the alternative. With better results against other teams, Hanshin could be leading the league or even putting up more of a fight. They have lost games which would have given them momentum. Mostly when Chunichi has lost, Hanshin has lost, and the poor performance against B class teams when it mattered (Rakuten, Yomiuri, Hiroshima) has been a major part of the problem. If they had taken advantage of the Dragons' slump, then they would have gone into today's series four games behind with the pressure on the Dragons (despite the 11-2 disparity).

Yes, of course the Hanshin/Chunichi disparity is significant, but the poor performance in pursuit of the alternative is perhaps more significant as it brings into question coaching and strategy. If Plan A fails where are the contingencies?

This is getting surreal. Pursuing an alternative? The teams go out there to win every game. You can't just say, "Oh well, we're not winning against Team A, let's see, who else is there? Right - let's try to beat Team B. Or instead of Team B, let's try to beat Team C." That's ridiculous.

I've established that Chunichi and Hanshin have almost identical records against this season's B class teams. It's so obvious why Hanshin aren't leading the league.

Teams should go out to win every game, but for various reasons they don't always do this. This is the reality, and a manager has to work round it. If the team is not winning against team A does a manager then say Oh well, we must give up - we've no chance. Or does he look for a different way to maintain the pressure and win. This isn't a one off game or short series, it's a league with over 140 games. This fact gives a lot more flexibility and room for maneuver. So the idea that you can win by beating team B, C, D, and E, but not A is 100% valid, even with a big gap in games between team A and B.

Don't get too hung up on just one rivalry - it's exciting as a fan, but distracting on other levels in this sort of environment. Beating your biggest rival for the championship is the easiest way to win, but it is not the only way. The reason Hanshin are not leading the league is because they are under-performing and Chunichi are not. This includes against Chunichi and against the B class teams when it matters.

- Teams should go out to win every game, but for various reasons they don't always do this.

Really? Give one reason. I don't suppose you're thinking of the strategy of giving up on a blowout to save your bullpen? That's different.

- If the team is not winning against team A does a manager then say Oh well, we must give up - we've no chance?

Forgive me - that's what I thought you were arguing.

- Or does he look for a different way to maintain the pressure and win.

Yes indeed. That's what I said. Winning is the name of the game. There's no backup plan.

- So the idea that you can win by beating team B, C, D, and E, but not A is 100% valid, even with a big gap in games between team A and B.

Yes, but what's the relevance? I said a team goes out there trying to win every game. I didn't say they would win every game, I simply said they would try. There is a difference.

- Don't get too hung up on just one rivalry

Who's hung up about it? I don't care if Hanshin beats Chunichi or not. If they win the pennant I don't care who they beat.

- The reason Hanshin are not leading the league is because they are under-performing and Chunichi are not. This includes against Chunichi and against the B class teams...

They are not leading because they are under performing against Chunichi. Period. Chunichi and Hanshin have similar records against the B-class teams. If you can't grasp that basic fact, I'm afraid there's really nothing more I can say.

Don't get me wrong, Christopher, I enjoy these little disagreements we have from time to time. I've just got a life to get back to. This is actually a very simple situation. Don't over complicate it.

I think you have gotten very confused. It's a matter of simple contingencies. If A fails go to B - this is basic planning. Hanshin are not even following B when they should be. This is basic planning - have a backup.

Personally I think we are not going to agree on this point so it might be a good idea to call a halt to this discussion.

- What's their record against Chunichi? 2-11 - a difference of 9.

It doesnt get any simpler! Well said Mijow! That is where the season has been lost!

Hello,

I am a native Minnesotan, currently living in Suzuka (moved there in March, so I'm a bit of a newbie to NPB), and due to the proximity to Nagoya, I have become a Dragons fan. Translation: the Tigers will come back and win the Central League title. :P

But seriously, how about the game last night? Tigers fans must be upset that they gave up a game-tying HR with 1 out to go. What I've noticed during the Tigers' recent skid is that they haven't pitched well with 2 outs for whatever reason. One of the games against the Giants, the Giants went from bases-empty-2-out to a 5-run inning.

Obviously, my team is struggling a bit right now too, so we just need to let things play out. (I'm nervous, by the way. I've been following Minnesota sports for so long I'm expecting a huge collapse by the Dragons.)

It's like a stinkin' guillotine. I knew, even up 5-1, that the Dragons would find a way to blow this.

The Dragons will forever regret the day I became a fan of theirs.

It's not your fault, firearmofmutiny, it's that sacrifice the Tigers made to the gods! Talk about getting help off the field!

But it won't help them. I spoke with the gods just the other day, and they said an even bigger ceremony the Drags are planning will probably get them back on track.