2005 Nippon Series: Game Four - Lotte is Nippon Ichi

Oh well, the Tigers woke somewhat from their slumber, but it was too little, too late. Congratulations to the Marines - it was a great Series for them and the Pacific League.

But the Central League has some soul searching to do. An article by Stephen Ellsesser in the Japan Times yesterday just about sums it up: The Central League needs playoffs. The Tigers were just too rusty. [Link]

Congratulations to the Marines. It was a great Series for them.

Though the Central League has to have playoffs. All that time without playoffs was bad for Hanshin. It was obvious by the 33-4 score difference. Hanshin was too tired in my opinion.

What a wonderful Series for the Marines. It was one of those things where everything went right for them, but they more than deserve to be the winners.

Once again, congratulations to the Marines fans around the world.

Congratulations to Valentine and Co.

An excellent victory by the Marines.

However on the playoffs I beg to differ. In my opinion they have rendered the Pacific League a bit of a farce. What is clear is that the advantage lies with the team finishing second and not top of the Pacific League (both times the second place team has won). There is no real incentive to win the league - the supposed incentives do not translate into anything concrete given that the momentum lies with the team that wins the first round. However I forsee the Central League introducing a similar system.

How about just scrapping the playoffs and going into the Japan Series straightaway?

I think the league winner takes all system rewards consistency, and the Tigers definitely have the stronger hand there. Whereas in a certain sense, the playoff system rewards the more competitive, aggressive team, with a bit of luck thrown in, of course.

Which is why I wouldn't have liked a playoff for the Tigers. They were obviously the strongest and most consistent team in the Central League, but Chunichi showed more than once they knew how to upset them. Bobby Valentine probably studied those tapes well.

- However on the playoffs I beg to differ. In my opinion they have rendered the Pacific League a bit of a farce. What is clear is that the advantage lies with the team finishing second and not top of the Pacific League (both times the second place team has won). There is no real incentive to win the league - the supposed incentives do not translate into anything concrete given that the momentum lies with the team that wins the first round.

I don't agree with you on this. Having every home game is a pretty big incentive. Do you honestly think that Softbank would have pushed the series to 5 in either playoffs if they had to travel to Chiba or Saitama after being down two games to zero? The Hawks are a team that I'm guessing are well suited for long hauls but not for 5 or 7 game sets.

I do see the disadvantage with not having a playoff series. I think the Tigers weren't ready for the Nippon Series until the final game.

I can see your point, but the Hawks only avoided a 3-0 loss at home because Kobayashi got into a funk. This was with the home advantage. Home advantage is not such a big benefit at all - it didn't help the Tigers did it?

I was waiting for a while to respond to this topic, as I wanted to present more hard numbers with this. But I want to make my brief assessment of the PL playoff system.

I don't see any real advantage in finishing second during the regular season. The explanation for what has happened in the first two years of the PL playoffs exposes how a team wins the regular season, and whether or not that really makes them the best team in the league.

For both 2004 and 2005, look at the results of the regular season series between each team. You'll see that the reason in both years that the Hawks were on top was more because of their utter domination of the B-level teams rather than a great performance against the other A-level teams. This year, the Hawks/Marines season series was split right down the middle, so the way their playoff series went down is no surprise at all. In 2004, the Hawks actually lost their season series with Seibu! Again, no surprise why their playoff series went the way it did.

The Hawks were up on Lotte because they crushed Rakuten and Nippon Ham in a more lopsided manner, much like they were up on Seibu last year because of their annihilation of teams like Orix and Kintetsu.

In the end, though, the PL playoffs have represented a mini-version of the regular seasons. Both years, two teams have really been the top of the PL, and each year those teams got to decide it in a playoff. It's just been rough that the Hawks have lost two Game Fives. In no way does it show me that the system is broken, or that the PL representative was undeserving, or that the Hawks were cheated.

The first weakness of the system was exposed this year, that being the long layoff the CL champion has to endure before the Series starts. Last year they had it better. In that configuration, Chunichi only waited five days before the Series began, and we ended up with an epic 7-game nailbiter! But that year you also had regular-season CL games being played on the same day as Japan Series Game One. I think they overcompensated this year, and Hanshin ended up waiting more than two weeks to play another game. The result is how you see it - but there has to be a way to solve that scheduling problem, even if the CL doesn't want a playoff.

The bigger looming issue still hasn't been exposed: what if a below 0.500 team gets into the PL playoffs and winds up in the Japan Series? When that happens, let me know and I'll join the anti-playoff brigade - because so far these playoffs have only increased my enjoyment of NPB!

OK, that wasn't really brief, gomenasai!

- Stevie

- I don't see any real advantage in finishing second during the regular season.

The advantage lies in more match practice - the second place team has an extra 3 game series in which to prepare.

- For both 2004 and 2005, look at the results of the regular season series between each team. You'll see that the reason in both years that the Hawks were on top was more because of their utter domination of the B-level teams rather than a great performance against the other A-level teams. This year, the Hawks/Marines season series was split right down the middle, so the way their playoff series went down is no surprise at all. In 2004, the Hawks actually lost their season series with Seibu!

This is perhaps an irrelevant point - there are six teams in each league, and it is your performance against all of them that is important. The reason Seibu and Lotte finished behind the Hawks was because they couldn't beat the B level teams as much.

- In the end, though, the PL playoffs have represented a mini-version of the regular seasons. Both years, two teams have really been the top of the PL, and each year those teams got to decide it in a playoff. It's just been rough that the Hawks have lost two Game Fives.

They haven't really represented any aspect of the regular season. It has really damaged the credibility of the Pacific League that the second place team has won. Any victory by the third place team will shatter this credibility.

- In no way does it show me that the system is broken, or that the PL representative was undeserving, or that the Hawks were cheated.

This is just the problem - the Hawks won the league but were robbed of it twice by the playoffs. A points system which is normally used to score for a league system would have exposed this more clearly. Winning a series against one club is irrelevant - it is your performance against all that is important. The Pacific League has failed to understand this and is in danger of becoming more irrelevant.

OK, three points and then I'm done with the discussion (maybe):

1. The Hawks weren't robbed, they were beaten on the field. Their field. They had every chance to win against the Marines and Lions and they couldn't do it. Actually, all they had to do was hold for a tie in the final game and they couldn't get it done.


2. The Pacific league has been the weak sister in terms of prestige and credibility from the start. If anything, the playoffs have helped, not hurt, the credibility of the Pacific league. They were hard fought matches with displays of class by everybody involved. This year, Orix was relevant. Last year, Nippon Ham was a good story. Lotte, who has been bottom table for years, was a great story. We wouldn't have had this without the playoffs. In my opinion, the CL was the big joke. The top two teams, Hanshin (yours) and Chunichi (mine) couldn't handle the bottom barrel teams until the very end. Exciting playoffs don't kill credibility.


3. Lackluster performances in games that matter do. The CL has lost both series since the playoffs have been installed. Hanshin was downright embarrassing in this Series. I'm glad Chunichi didn't go because it might have been even worse.

Perhaps robbed was a bit too strong a term. But Hawks did not receive their deserved award.

However, as to credibility, it is currently very difficult to get any sponsor to associate with the Pacific League playoffs. They are not seen as a credible system except by the teams' fans. So as far as most of Japan is concerned they are pretty irrelevant. Remember, no major TV channel bothered to show most of the playoffs this year. Where the Pacific League can build credibility is in the Inter-league games, which are seen as very interesting.

This should not be seen as a comment on the quality of the baseball played in the Pacific League, just an illustration of how the two leagues are viewed.

- ... but the Hawks only avoided a 3-0 loss at home because Kobayashi got into a funk.

And why did that happen? Perhaps the crowd got to him. And then the Hawks batted second, which can make a difference in close games. Home advantage in action.

And what home advantage did the Tigers have in the Nippon Series? Lotte hosted the first two, and it appears that the momentum from those two big wins made them unbeatable even at Koshien.

If we're talking about a CL playoff along the same lines as the Pacific League setup, the Tigers would have needed to win only 2 out of 5 (due to their regular season result), all played at home. Remember also that the Hawks would have won their playoff, too, if they had been in the same position as the Tigers, but they didn't finish strongly enough in the regular season to be eligible for that one-game advantage.

Well done to Bobby V. and all the Lotte players on a magnificent Series win!

Nice to see Lotte break their 30-odd year drought and also good to see one of the smaller teams getting some shine.

Congratulations Lotte to a fully deserved victory.