Sadaharu Oh and Cooperstown

Ah, it's always a pleasure to get notification of more Albright studies. Thanks for posting them.

There was one thing that I think was a factual error, though. I'm really only familiar with the more recent past, so I can't say it is for sure. But I'd hate t see the whole study to be thrown out of consideration by critics on the grounds of one small miss.

In section I-C (Japan?s All-Star Games), the paragraph starts off:

Japanese baseball has a best of three All-Star format.

That may be what it looks like just looking at results in the Japanese Baseball Encyclopedia. However, at least recently, the All-Star series is two games with three games on Olympic years. They did play three last year, which was a "Baseball World Cup year," and I suspect that the decision for when to have two or three games may have been rather whimsical in nature in the past. But I don't think that the third game was ever contingent on the results of the first two games. (How would one market that, especially with a third party stadium to maybe get one of the games?)

Unfortunately, I don't have past All Star Series data handy, so I can't point out that a team won all three games for a three game series and/or the series was split for a two game series. Can anyone confirm or deny that the All Star Series used to be a best-of-three affair?

You're quite welcome. If I am in error on the best of three format in Oh's time, I will make the necessary change, of course. I would like confirmation of this before I do so, however. As it turns out, another reader has advised me of an error in the article on Japanese players and the majors with respect to Sawamura. That will be changed shortly.

Jim Albright

Looked up the all-star games in Dan Johnson's Statistical Handbook, and found a 3 game PL sweep in 1963, a 3rd game in 1964 after the CL had won the first 2, a third game tie in 1965 after the PL had won the first 2, a 3rd game in 1966 after the PL had won the first 2, a 3 game PL sweep in 1967, a 3rd game in 1968 after the CL had won the first 2, another 3rd game tie in 1969 after the PL had won the first 2, a 3rd game in 1972 after the PL had won the first 2, a 3 game PL sweep in 1974, a 3rd game in 1975 after the CL had won the first 2, and a 3rd game in 1976 after the PL had won the first 2. I think it is clear Michael-san was correct, and I am making the necessary change. Thank you for bringing it to my attention.

Jim Albright

Jim,

I find your projections fascinating and agree that Oh would've most likely produced HoF numbers had he played in the States. However, Oh never did, while Sasaki and Suzuki have. Given an American link, their play elsewhere becomes a legitimate part of their candidacy; without it, it doesn't. I think the precedent for that has already been set by Martin Dihigo, a MUCH bigger star in Cuba and Mexico than the US Negro Leagues -- although, like Ichiro so far, he excelled in the US as well.

Since Oh has no connection to US baseball, I don't think he should be inducted -- any more than Ty Cobb or Babe Ruth (touring once isn't enough) should be inducted into the Japanese Baseball HoF. Although Lefty O'Doul recently became the first American (OK, I guess Wally Yonamine was the first American, but he was ethnically Japanese and played baseball entirely in Japan) inducted into Japan's HoF, it was not for his play in the US, but for his repeated efforts to build Japanese baseball by touring, training, and coaching -- what we'd list in the US HoF as a pioneer.

Ah, the "National" argument. But baseball is undeniably going international--shouldn't the HOF? Oh's influence on the *American* game will grow as the Japanese players come over in increasing numbers, since I take it you would agree Oh had a tremendous influence on Japanese ball. At some point, Oh *will* have a significant influence on the state of baseball worldwide.

Beyond that, Cooperstown is supposedly for the best of the game, and by that standard, it fails when it leaves out Oh. Also, it wasn't like Oh *chose* not to come--the Japanese baseball power structure, with MLB complicity, saw to it he never got any more chance to play in the majors than Josh Gibson, Bullet Rogan, Martin Dihigo, and many other Negro Leaguers did.

The argument on this issue is more fully spelled out in the second part of Oh and Cooperstown, but this is the nutshell version.

BTW--thank you for the kind words about the analysis.

Jim Albright

> Ah, the "National" argument. But baseball is
> undeniably going international--shouldn't the HOF?
> Oh's influence on the *American* game will grow as
> the Japanese players come over in increasing
> numbers, since I take it you would agree Oh had a
> tremendous influence on Japanese ball. At some
> point, Oh *will* have a significant influence on the
> state of baseball worldwide.
>
> Beyond that, Cooperstown is supposedly for the best
> of the game, and by that standard, it fails when it
> leaves out Oh. Also, it wasn't like Oh *chose* not
> to come--the Japanese baseball power structure, with
> MLB complicity, saw to it he never got any more
> chance to play in the majors than Josh Gibson, Bullet
> Rogan, Martin Dihigo, and many other Negro Leaguers
> did.
>
> The argument on this issue is more fully spelled out
> in the second part of Oh and Cooperstown, but this is
> the nutshell version.
>
> BTW--thank you for the kind words about the
> analysis.
>
> Jim Albright

Jim, I keep wanting to mention this to you, but since the source material is in a box in Japan, I imagine you can't really use it for your article. There was a "mook", (Japanese English for something that's more than a magazing but less than a book) called, I believe, Major League Japan. Something like that. It came out in Spring of 2001, and basically had long articles on all the Major Leaguers from Japan, plus a few related articles. There was a quote from Nagashima Shigeo where he related that Shoriki Matsutaro, the first owner of the Giants, received an offer for Nagashima from the Dodgers after the Giants participated in the Dodgers spring training in 1961, but Shoriki turned it down. What's more, he didn't tell Nagashima about the offer until he (Shoriki) was on his deathbed, in 1969. Nagashima continued to comment that he would have liked to try his skills in MLB. I think that gives a fine example of the kind of duplicity that kept Japanese players in Japan.

If I ever get a hold of my stuff in Japan, I'll let you know the necessary publication info if you'd like to cite it (as well as a cleaner translation of Nagashima's quote).

Josh Reyer

Ah, the "National" argument.

Well, yeah. It's called the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, after all.

Good luck with your quest, Jim. I don't agree and suspect those on the selection committee wouldn't either, but you never know.

BTW--thank you for the kind words about the analysis.

No problem. They're well deserved.

> Ah, the "National" argument.
>
> Well, yeah. It's called the National Baseball Hall of
> Fame and Museum, after all.

I don't know why I didn't think of this when this came up on the SABR-L, but I went checked out the Hall of Fame's webpage. Here is the HoF's Mission Statement:

The National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum is a not-for-profit educational institution dedicated to fostering an appreciation of the historical development of the game and its impact on our culture by collecting, preserving, exhibiting and interpreting its collections for a global audience, as well as honoring those who have made outstanding contributions to our National Pastime.

Through its mission, the Museum is committed to:

• Collecting, through donation, baseball artifacts, works of art, literature, photographs, memorabilia and related materials which focus on the history of the game over time, its players, and those elected to the Hall of Fame.


• Preserving the collections by adhering to professional museum standards with respect to conservation and maintaining a permanent record of holdings through documentation, study, research, cataloging and publication.


• Exhibiting material in permanent gallery space, organizing on-site changing exhibitions on various themes, with works from the Hall of Fame collections or other sources, working with other individuals or organizations to exhibit loaned material of significance to baseball and providing related research facilities.


• Interpreting artifacts through its exhibition and education programs to enhance awareness, understanding and appreciation of the game for a diverse audience.
  
• Honoring, by enshrinement, those individuals who had exceptional careers, and recognizing others for their significant achievements.

Frankly, I can't see anything in there that would exclude enshrinement for Sadaharu Oh, and the fact that the Hall is intended for a "global audience" seems to actually be in Oh's favor. It makes sense, of course. If you're going to have Japanese baseball memoriabilia, there's no reason why you should exclude great Japanese players from enshrinement.

However, 1908 is probably right when he says that the selection committee wouldn't see it that way. There was this article in the Japan Times last year. The author, Jack Gallagher, argues that Nomo's playing record when combined with his distinction as a pioneer would get him the Hall of Fame. I, myself, am not entirely sure I agree with Gallagher-san, but what is important to note is the letter he received from the HoF when asking about Murakami Masanori, the first Japanese player to play in MLB:

Of course there is great historical significance in being the first ballplayer of Japanese ancestry to play Major League Baseball, but, he does not meet the service requirements as a player, and quite honestly, does not fit in the "pioneer" category either.

So obviously, the Hall would not be inclined to enshrine Oh for his playing career because he doesn't meet the requirements of 10 years on a Major League team.

However, this is not really an obstacle. Obviously there are many non-players who have in fact been enshrined. (And note that this does not include writers and broadcasters. Contrary to what is often cited, writers and broadcasters are not inducted into the Hall of Fame. They merely receive awards of recognition from the Hall of Fame.) Bill Veeck, for example played nary a game in the majors or the minors. He went in for other accomplishments. The same consideration could be given Oh. And even if the Hall currently is not compelled to enshrine Oh, that doesn't mean they never will. As Bill James points out in The Politics of Glory, the Hall of Fame is constantly changing their criteria for induction.

I agree. Sadaharu Oh should be in Cooperstown.
Quite a few of the Japanese HOF members should be in Cooperstown. Personally, I would have loved to see
Sadaharu Oh in a Detroit Tigers uniform.

I'd very much like to get the information you have on the Nagashima situation, Josh. I expect the effort to get Oh in will not be a short one--unless there is a tremendous amount of support in Japan. The internet favors us in allowing those connections to be made--heck, look at the help you are providing.

As for the "National" argument, the Hall could easily enough change its name to the "international" Hall of Fame. As another poster has pointed out, the mission statement does not force exclusion of Oh. I'm sure there will be some institiutional resistance (as there has been for Negro Leaguers), but I and some others are willing to take that on.

Jim Albright

I agree that Sadaharu Oh should be in Cooperstown. I'm all for it. To my knowledge, he would be the first Asian baseball player to be inducted.

Realistically though, Oh is way down on a long line of "should-be Hall of Famers" who, in the eyes of American baseball fans & media, take priority... From household names Shoeless Joe Jackson, Roger Maris, Pete Rose to Maury Willis, Lee Smith, Bert Blyleven; accomplished players overshadowed by their peer.

If Oh does get inducted to the HOF...especially BEFORE those mentioned above...people will cry out a great injustice.

Yet to the Oh-supporters willing to take on the baseball establsiment... Gambatte yo

The point you make is valid, but already covered at the end of Section III-A.

There are two other questions in Bill James so-called Keltner List for evaluating HOF candidates that we can look at with this projection. They are: 1) Is Oh the best eligible player not in Cooperstown, and 2) Is he the best first baseman eligible not in the Hall?

He goes on to name some names of qualified candidates and sites where he got the list from. They were: Minnie Minoso, Gary Carter, Dick Allen, Ken Boyer, and Ron Santo. Likely 3,000+ hitters included: Cal Ripken, Jr., Eddie Murray, Paul Molitor, Tony Gwynn, Wade Boggs, and Rickey Henderson, but not all are eligible, yet.

For the second point, "Is he the best first baseman eligible?" Albright-san mentioned Keith Hernandez and Will Clark. (Are they elibible?)

Albright continues,

Frankly, I would put Oh at the head of the list of eligibles. I submit he?s the best of all the first basemen, though solid arguments could be made for a preference for Murray and McGwire. Given that they will almost certainly precede Oh into the HOF, I won?t get into that argument. The only other players I?d consider possibly ahead of Oh are Ripken and Rickey. No matter what one thinks of these comparisons, if one accepts the projection as being reasonably accurate, it is clear Oh is quite worthy of induction into Cooperstown.

For the names you forwarded, I was under the impression that Shoeless Joe and Petey were excluded due to moral issues. These are injustices, and people will continue to cry about them no matter who is inducted before them.

I'm not qualified to elevate or dismiss any of the other names on your list. Can you give a reason why any of them are more qualified for enshrinement that Oh?

I understand the issue you raise in terms of the American public. That is why those who care about Japanese baseball and Ichiro's possible induction have to help in this cause. Without such a base of support, the likelihood is we won't get anywhere. With the increasing influence of Japanese players and the rise of Japanese fans, a significant push from that direction can get us there. I've provided the data and the arguments, and I'll push as hard as I can, but I am one person in a process that is more popularity contest than a debate contest where logic wins out. With significant support, the case for Oh sells itself. Without such support, it will be difficult to get the right people to hear the message, much less to get them to act on it. I do appreciate comments of support, but in order to be successful, I and the several other activists I am aware of in this effort need tangible help in spreading the word. All of you have local papers and local sportscasters and many of you participate in other baseball-related mailing lists and newsgroups. A few sentence plug in any or all of these places advances the cause. Some of us will do a lot of heavy lifting, and we could certainly use some more people willing to really work in the cause, but we can go a long way if a lot of people do just a little more than cheer from the sidelines. Josh Reyer provides information. Michael Westbay provides this forum and his comments here. If we had 100 more like them, we'd be well on our way. I'm asking anyone who is interested to join in that effort. It won't likely be a short road to success, but your involvement is as a volunteer, and can put in as much or as little effort as you wish. Every contributuon will be appreciated and will help us succeed.

Jim Albright

- I'm not qualified to elevate or dismiss any of the other names on your list. Can you give a reason why any of them are more qualified for enshrinement that Oh?

I did not mean to imply that those I listed were "more qualified" than Oh. Instead, those I listed would receive "more attention" regarding their HOF eligibility. Afterall it is called the Hall of FAME as in "famous" taking into consideration a player's notoriety as well as his on-field accomplishments.

Every year around HOF induction ceremonies in Cooperstown, ESPN/Sports Illustrated/baseball fans come up with their list of players who should be in the HOF. Extremely doubtful that Sadahara Oh with his accomplishments in Japan are on those lists. Many in America probably don't even know of his existence.

Yet living in a Global Information Age, it is possible to get the Oh-Cooperstown message out to those willing to listen. May I suggest getting the word on Oh out to (at first) Japanese-friendly baseball forums ie Seattle Mariners & LA Dodgers. Should "Godzilla" come stateside & succeed, the Oh-HOF message could be posted on forums of Matsui's MLB team. And watch it spread.

I am not familiar with what your working relationship or friendship is with Mr. Rob Fitts of RobsJapaneseCards.com. I bought a few BBM cards from him and he seems like a nice guy.

I know he sells Sadaharu Oh baseball cards. If he was asked, could he attach a written version of Mr. Albright's Oh-Coopestown analysis with every Oh card sold?

My logic being is if a customer is willing to spend X amount of dollars on an Sadaharu Oh baseball card, it is conceivable that s/he

A) knows about Oh & his accomplishments
B) is a fan of Oh
C) is sympathetic to the Oh-HOF cause
D) can get the word out also

Grass roots effort. I mean its all for Sadaharu Oh, so?

Thanks for the suggestion. I have often been in touch with Rob due to our mutual interest in APBA and Japanese baseball. Rob has agreed to help publicize the cause, but has cautioned that he is one who accepts the "National" argument. Therefore, I doubt he'd be willing to pay the postage for 10-12 pages of material with every card. Perhaps I can ask him to include a note with the URLs spelling out the case, however.

Jim Albright

Yeah, thats cool. Everyone is entitled to their opinions. With the ever increasing price of US postage, I can see how sending an baseball card & a 12 page manual can get expensive. A note or flyer with the Oh-HOF case URLs would be economical.

Besides Rob's customers would have more autonomy & make an informed decision about "for" or "against" Oh into Cooperstown themselves.

One thing *everybody* who believes Oh belongs in Cooperstown can and *should* do is let the HOF know how you feel by contacting them at this link.

Jim Albright

Doesn't have anything to do with getting him into Cooperstown, but ESPN Page2 has an article about "A Zen Way of Baseball."

Recently on the MLB.com website, Ian Browne wrote an editorial article entitled "My Hall Of Fame Ballot." Unfortunately (and as I suspected) Sadaharu Oh was never mentioned in his article. So I sent him an email expressing my argument FOR Sadaharu Oh's induction into Cooperstown at Ian.Browne @ mlb . com

Maybe he will listen to what I had to say, read and consider it. Maybe he won't. But I'll never know until I try.