Young Japanese and the Future of NPB
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Re: Young Japanese and the Future of NPB
[ Author: mijow | Posted: Sep 7, 2003 12:24 AM
| HT Fan
]
Well to start the ball rolling, I see a number of practical difficulties of young Japanese ball players going over to the States:
- Language ability. Many young yakyu players are, shall we say, not academically inclined, and English is difficult for many of them, considering the way it's taught in Japanese high schools. I once had the occasion to meet a group of young yakyu players from one of the famous baseball schools in Osaka, and you know, very few of them spoke English fluently enough to hold a conversation. These guys were the future pro ball players in Japan. They lived, breathed and slept baseball. English was not a priority. Besides, they all wanted to play in Japan, and didn't appear interested in going to the MLB. Some of them may have harbored a secret desire to do so, of course, but they all seemed to want to play for the Tigers or Giants as their first choice.
Why is language important? Well, it's OK for the established veterans to go over without any English - they have a personal interpreter, and they get looked after. A young guy coming over and starting off in the system isn't going to receive that treatment. He'd have to fend for himself to a large extent, and frankly, many of these guys are going to be terrified at the thought of doing it. Fame. If a young guy goes over, he'll end up in the minor league system for a few seasons, until he's developed enough to make it in the bigs. Now for all that time, he's invisible. He won't get publicity in Japan, and nobody's gonna know who he is.
If he stays in Japan, he has a good chance of being called up in his first year. His friends and family will know what he's doing, he'll get much more media exposure, and he has a chance of being a real star. Big fish in a small pond sort of idea.Salary. Related to above. If he's reasonably talented, he may well earn as much in Japan as he would in the MLB, where he'd have to be a star to receive massive amounts of money. And in any case, if he makes it in Japan, he can then still go over to the MLB (after the nine years, or as Jim suggested, a more reasonable seven).
So, while I see a handful of young guys going over, there will not be the massive numbers some American journalists like to believe. The dream for the vast majority of high school players is to first, play at Koshien, and second, get drafted by a pro team in Japan, preferably the Giants.
Now, what we may see happening is that the guys who miss out might try their luck in the States, but because of the cultural/language difficulties, the number will still be limited. Very limited.
Just my two yen worth.
Re: Young Japanese and the Future of NPB
[ Author: Guest: Jim Albright | Posted: Sep 7, 2003 10:38 AM
]
A couple of points:
- Was the encounter you had with young Japanese players in 2002 or 2003? I'm talking about where the mindset of those young men is now.
- As to points 2 and 3 of your post, NPB could be used as a feeder system. That is, wait until he's a star there, then the MLB takes him. It would be much like AAA is in the States. That approach completely bypasses those 2 issues -- and gives an up and coming player a chance to work on some English. If the NPB accepts that status, it can survive until MLB decides to expand in Japan. However, that would clearly not be NPB as we now know it. Further, if MLB is getting significant numbers of Japanese players, they'll figure out how to make it work, just like they do for poor Hispanic kids from the Caribbean.
My point is, if MLB is taking the vast majority of the best Japanese players after they've only had a year or two to shine in Japan, I can't see how NPB can survive in its current form. Fan interest in NPB would almost certainly wane, thus eliminating the ability to pay the kind of competitive salaries they can today.
This process would take several years to really start to have an effect, but once it did, it could gain momentum rapidly. My favorite analogy is erosion for its slow, steady, stealthy start, but its eventual huge results. Further, just like erosion, the process may be prevented or at least greatly impeded by use of carefully thought out and executed countermeasures early on.
I would suspect you are right, however, that right now the focus is on the Japanese stars in MLB, not MLB itself.
Jim Albright
Re: Young Japanese and the Future of NPB
[ Author: mijow | Posted: Sep 8, 2003 12:47 AM
| HT Fan
]
Jim, I met these guys in 2002. So yes, it was fairly recent.
I think I've commented in a similar vein before in another forum, but I think the flaw in your proposal is that NPB would have to be fairly desperate to want to act as a feeder sytem for MLB.
NPB is fiercely independent, it has its own traditions and history, it's well funded, and it has an enormous fan base and media exposure in its home market. And for the reasons I mentioned above, it's not about to lose its young players to the MLB anytime soon, at least in my view. Perhaps to other sports such as soccer, but not to the MLB.
I'm not saying there aren't any problems - of course there are, but I simply can't imagine a scenario in which NPB would agree to a virtual takeover by MLB - if I understand you correctly that is.
And I think perhaps you underestimate the capacity for NPB to reform itself, long before they'd become desperate.
In regard to that article you mentioned, I suspect the journalist spoke to a couple of Little Leaguers - maybe the ones who won the championship recently.
Frankly, I don't think they're representative of the young kids playing baseball in Japan. I can't quote any figures, but I think you'll find that the majority of kids playing organized baseball in Japan at that age would be doing it through the school system, and not Little League. That's because most kids (and parents for that matter) know that the best way to succeed as a pro in Japan is to go through the regimented school system.
OK, these Little Leaguers may well have talent, and they're having fun at the moment. But whatever their dreams at such a young age, I think a couple years down the track, reality will set in and they'll play along with the system if they're really serious about going pro.
In my view, the revolution you envisage would require some very serious shifts in attitudes among the kids, the parents, the school system. Could happen one day, but I don't think I'll be alive to see it.
I think I've commented in a similar vein before in another forum, but I think the flaw in your proposal is that NPB would have to be fairly desperate to want to act as a feeder sytem for MLB.
NPB is fiercely independent, it has its own traditions and history, it's well funded, and it has an enormous fan base and media exposure in its home market. And for the reasons I mentioned above, it's not about to lose its young players to the MLB anytime soon, at least in my view. Perhaps to other sports such as soccer, but not to the MLB.
I'm not saying there aren't any problems - of course there are, but I simply can't imagine a scenario in which NPB would agree to a virtual takeover by MLB - if I understand you correctly that is.
And I think perhaps you underestimate the capacity for NPB to reform itself, long before they'd become desperate.
In regard to that article you mentioned, I suspect the journalist spoke to a couple of Little Leaguers - maybe the ones who won the championship recently.
Frankly, I don't think they're representative of the young kids playing baseball in Japan. I can't quote any figures, but I think you'll find that the majority of kids playing organized baseball in Japan at that age would be doing it through the school system, and not Little League. That's because most kids (and parents for that matter) know that the best way to succeed as a pro in Japan is to go through the regimented school system.
OK, these Little Leaguers may well have talent, and they're having fun at the moment. But whatever their dreams at such a young age, I think a couple years down the track, reality will set in and they'll play along with the system if they're really serious about going pro.
In my view, the revolution you envisage would require some very serious shifts in attitudes among the kids, the parents, the school system. Could happen one day, but I don't think I'll be alive to see it.
Re: Young Japanese and the Future of NPB
[ Author: Guest: Jim Albright | Posted: Sep 8, 2003 9:01 AM
]
I'm not proposing NPB become a feeder. What I'm saying is, if the number of years a player must stay in the Japanese system drops below 5-6 years for whatever reason (the most powerful one I see at the moment is pressure from players who don't want to be tied up that long -- especially those not yet in the system or veterans sick of seeing unproven kids get preferential treatment), NPB would, in effect, become a feeder system for MLB -- whether they like it or not. As for those kids, they have the right to do as they choose prior to entering the NPB system, and can use that right to negotiate for less onerous terms -- much like American high schoolers and collegians not in their senior year can use the option of (another) year in college to bolster their negotiating position. The Japanese hotshot of the year is doing this, and if he succeeds, others may well follow his lead.
As I've stressed in this and other threads, nothing is set in stone, and NPB can react to it. However, I submit that the thesis of the importance of tying up talent for at least 5 years is valid -- and that this may turn out to be a weak link in NPB's defenses is also a valid point.
Jim Albright
As I've stressed in this and other threads, nothing is set in stone, and NPB can react to it. However, I submit that the thesis of the importance of tying up talent for at least 5 years is valid -- and that this may turn out to be a weak link in NPB's defenses is also a valid point.
Jim Albright
Re: Young Japanese and the Future of NPB
[ Author: mijow | Posted: Sep 7, 2003 12:53 AM
| HT Fan
]
One thing I need to add:
I feel some American journalists misunderstand this simple point: The average Japanese fan does not follow MLB. He follows the Japanese players in the MLB. Most probably couldn't tell you who Ichiro's or Matsui's teammates were. In other words, the NPB is seen as the real McCoy, with pennant races worth getting excited about, while the MLB is simply an arena for Japanese players to show off their skills. Sort of like a series of exhibition games.
I feel some American journalists misunderstand this simple point: The average Japanese fan does not follow MLB. He follows the Japanese players in the MLB. Most probably couldn't tell you who Ichiro's or Matsui's teammates were. In other words, the NPB is seen as the real McCoy, with pennant races worth getting excited about, while the MLB is simply an arena for Japanese players to show off their skills. Sort of like a series of exhibition games.
Re: Young Japanese and the Future of NPB
[ Author: Guest: Gary Garland | Posted: Sep 8, 2003 3:50 PM
]
I think Mijow has it about right. Michael has propounded many of the same points and they are valid, imho.
The fact is that Japanese youngsters can go to MLB now if they so wish. Yu Darvish anyone? He is contemplating skipping being the number one choice in in the 2004 November draft and going directly with MLB.
And Jim, the guy you're thinking of is Takashi Toritani, the shortstop of Waseda University. However, AFAIK, he hasn't asked to be allowed to go to MLB in four or five years, but Tsuneo Watanabe, at least before he backpedaled on that, offered that to him.
But to expand on Mijow's point a little, America has the reputation in Japan of being a big, dangerous place where almost nobody speaks Japanese. Moreover, when a new player is in the lower level of the minors, he has to make it on about $800 a month plus about $7-8 a day meal money whereas in Japan, he can pull down $30-75,000 as a minor leaguer and live in the team's dormitory. In addition, when you play in Japan, the pool you have to compete with for a job at the top level is much smaller than that in MLB. So most, and Japanese are rather risk averse, will take the tack of playing in Japan for nine or ten years, make their connections, get their commercial deals, and then head off to MLB with all that intact. But if they head off to America at the start of their career, they are basically "ippiki no okami," or lone wolves.
Now Jim wants to emphasize the shortness of free agency leading to an exodus of talent to MLB. I'm not sure that will happen since players out of high school and college will still be in their primes by the time they are ready to leave in their ninth or tenth year, when they will have accumulated a long track record that they can have their agent flash to draw lots of money. Three years of okay or just above average play won't bring in MLB what it brings in Japan. But three average years, three above average years and three superstar years will bring the cash. For example, Tadahito Iguchi, with one superstar year, is going to take a big pay cut to go to MLB while Kazuo Matsui, with three or four superstar years, may get $5-6 million per.
Now the long free agency requirement is a major issue for those who came out of the industrial leagues (Ogasawara, Matsunaka, etc.). It's hard to say if that will ever resolve itself, but if NPB is going to put development time into a player, they are gong to want to keep him around, while Japanese players want to shorten free agency, not because they actually want to go to MLB, but because it will drive up salaries.
As a test case, let's look at Kenji Johjima. He wants a multiyear deal from Daiei. The Hawks' front office said no. Now instead of finishing his career with the team as he wants to, he is now threatening to use his free agency when he is 29 or so to go to MLB. I think that cases like Johjima's will be more the rule than the exception. In other words, their true intention is to stay in Japan while threatening to go to MLB. Sure, a few adventurous souls will go. Most won't, as long as they get what they feel is fair treatment from their Japanese team.
The fact is that Japanese youngsters can go to MLB now if they so wish. Yu Darvish anyone? He is contemplating skipping being the number one choice in in the 2004 November draft and going directly with MLB.
And Jim, the guy you're thinking of is Takashi Toritani, the shortstop of Waseda University. However, AFAIK, he hasn't asked to be allowed to go to MLB in four or five years, but Tsuneo Watanabe, at least before he backpedaled on that, offered that to him.
But to expand on Mijow's point a little, America has the reputation in Japan of being a big, dangerous place where almost nobody speaks Japanese. Moreover, when a new player is in the lower level of the minors, he has to make it on about $800 a month plus about $7-8 a day meal money whereas in Japan, he can pull down $30-75,000 as a minor leaguer and live in the team's dormitory. In addition, when you play in Japan, the pool you have to compete with for a job at the top level is much smaller than that in MLB. So most, and Japanese are rather risk averse, will take the tack of playing in Japan for nine or ten years, make their connections, get their commercial deals, and then head off to MLB with all that intact. But if they head off to America at the start of their career, they are basically "ippiki no okami," or lone wolves.
Now Jim wants to emphasize the shortness of free agency leading to an exodus of talent to MLB. I'm not sure that will happen since players out of high school and college will still be in their primes by the time they are ready to leave in their ninth or tenth year, when they will have accumulated a long track record that they can have their agent flash to draw lots of money. Three years of okay or just above average play won't bring in MLB what it brings in Japan. But three average years, three above average years and three superstar years will bring the cash. For example, Tadahito Iguchi, with one superstar year, is going to take a big pay cut to go to MLB while Kazuo Matsui, with three or four superstar years, may get $5-6 million per.
Now the long free agency requirement is a major issue for those who came out of the industrial leagues (Ogasawara, Matsunaka, etc.). It's hard to say if that will ever resolve itself, but if NPB is going to put development time into a player, they are gong to want to keep him around, while Japanese players want to shorten free agency, not because they actually want to go to MLB, but because it will drive up salaries.
As a test case, let's look at Kenji Johjima. He wants a multiyear deal from Daiei. The Hawks' front office said no. Now instead of finishing his career with the team as he wants to, he is now threatening to use his free agency when he is 29 or so to go to MLB. I think that cases like Johjima's will be more the rule than the exception. In other words, their true intention is to stay in Japan while threatening to go to MLB. Sure, a few adventurous souls will go. Most won't, as long as they get what they feel is fair treatment from their Japanese team.
Re: Young Japanese and the Future of NPB
[ Author: Guest: Jim Albright | Posted: Sep 9, 2003 9:53 AM
]
My fellow "guru", Gary Garland, wrote in part:
- And Jim, the guy you're thinking of is Takashi Toritani, the shortstop of Waseda University. However, AFAIK, he hasn't asked to be allowed to go to MLB in four or five years, but Tsuneo Watanabe, at least before he backpedaled on that, offered that to him.
A couple of points: I misunderstood the Toritani situation, though I'm surprised such a diehard as Watanabe is so desperate as to make an offer which may be good in the short term for the Giants, but could be disastrous in the long term for NPB.
- Now Jim wants to emphasize the shortness of free agency leading to an exodus of talent to MLB. I'm not sure that will happen since players out of high school and college will still be in their primes by the time they are ready to leave in their ninth or tenth year, [...]
I'm not saying the nine years is too short. Indeed, I've said several times in this thread to the contrary. I've said under 5 years is too short, and 5-6 years is a gray area. Five years would serve the players' interests in pushing up salaries, and allowing those with the talent and desire to go to MLB. However, it would hurt the NPB in pleasing its fans by hurting its ability to showcase its stars. The downward spiral I've discussed as a possibility in other threads could come into play if that were to happen. Three to five years would be fine for MLB, because it would allow time for Japanese talent to develop, without those players getting to or beyond their peak before going to NPB, as they do now.
Gary clearly acknowledges there are pressures to reduce the number of years Japanese talent is tied up. Further, I am positing that an idea which at most is only a seed in fertile soil, with adequate sun and water to nourish it: that current and future NPB players may find MLB an attractive option to actually take. If we take that seed and then remove 4 or 5 years worth of time that Japanese players are obligated to stay in Japan if they start with NPB, then I am saying that seed of an idea can grow into something which changes NPB as we now know it.
I am not suggesting that NPB will easily let this scenario take place. Perhaps Japanese, even young Japanese, will remain so risk adverse that this scenario cannot take place. I submit that counting on such in this ever changing world would be sheer folly on NPB's part. I think the main suggestion I am making is something I have advocated in other threads, which is to keep the players satisfied with their current lot while looking after NPB's vital interests. The obstructionism of the past will not achieve this, however. Further, NPB needs to keep its hold on the imagination of Japanese youth.
Jim Albright
- And Jim, the guy you're thinking of is Takashi Toritani, the shortstop of Waseda University. However, AFAIK, he hasn't asked to be allowed to go to MLB in four or five years, but Tsuneo Watanabe, at least before he backpedaled on that, offered that to him.
A couple of points: I misunderstood the Toritani situation, though I'm surprised such a diehard as Watanabe is so desperate as to make an offer which may be good in the short term for the Giants, but could be disastrous in the long term for NPB.
- Now Jim wants to emphasize the shortness of free agency leading to an exodus of talent to MLB. I'm not sure that will happen since players out of high school and college will still be in their primes by the time they are ready to leave in their ninth or tenth year, [...]
I'm not saying the nine years is too short. Indeed, I've said several times in this thread to the contrary. I've said under 5 years is too short, and 5-6 years is a gray area. Five years would serve the players' interests in pushing up salaries, and allowing those with the talent and desire to go to MLB. However, it would hurt the NPB in pleasing its fans by hurting its ability to showcase its stars. The downward spiral I've discussed as a possibility in other threads could come into play if that were to happen. Three to five years would be fine for MLB, because it would allow time for Japanese talent to develop, without those players getting to or beyond their peak before going to NPB, as they do now.
Gary clearly acknowledges there are pressures to reduce the number of years Japanese talent is tied up. Further, I am positing that an idea which at most is only a seed in fertile soil, with adequate sun and water to nourish it: that current and future NPB players may find MLB an attractive option to actually take. If we take that seed and then remove 4 or 5 years worth of time that Japanese players are obligated to stay in Japan if they start with NPB, then I am saying that seed of an idea can grow into something which changes NPB as we now know it.
I am not suggesting that NPB will easily let this scenario take place. Perhaps Japanese, even young Japanese, will remain so risk adverse that this scenario cannot take place. I submit that counting on such in this ever changing world would be sheer folly on NPB's part. I think the main suggestion I am making is something I have advocated in other threads, which is to keep the players satisfied with their current lot while looking after NPB's vital interests. The obstructionism of the past will not achieve this, however. Further, NPB needs to keep its hold on the imagination of Japanese youth.
Jim Albright
Re: Young Japanese and the Future of NPB
[ Author: Guest: George Steinbrennernot | Posted: Sep 27, 2003 2:23 AM
]
My two cents are that NPB should focus on putting the best product out on the field, and if that means 50% gaikokujin, so be it.
I agree with the comments on develping the home grown talent. I think it's too difficult for a youngster from Japan to be thrown into the U.S. minors without a support group. He's too young, too tempted, and would be too isolated. 5-7 years seems to be a reasonable time for a NPB team to have him under contract. Then he should be able to test the market, in Japan or elsewhere.
The bright college kid in Japan should also be able to consider a scholarship to a U.S. university on a baseball scholarship. Of course, his English skills would have to be quite good. Then he could be drafted later on by a U.S. or Japanese club. Of course, after all those years in the US, re-integration into Japanese society might be difficult.
NPB also should lift the exclusionist rule on limited gaikokujin players. Move to a free market. Go out and compete for the services of some MLB players and not just the cast-offs like Petagine and Rhodes who become NPB stars. Target some solid middle of the road younger players (more affordable) with the personal attributes, flexibility, and baseball skills to succeed in NPB. These skills might be slightly different from what MLB is looking for. NPB might also be willing to offer more bucks than the $500k-$1M the decent, but solid, younger players are making. Heck, Benny Agbayani was working for $200k.
In the U.S., we have many foreign-born players, non-U.S. citizens, playing baseball who do very well and who fans love for what they do on the field and not for where they live. Perhaps some should focus a bit less on Japanese baseball and start focusing on just baseball.
Develop a camp in the Dominican Republic for talented youths who have no opportunity for schooling or employment. Some can play a darn good game of baseball. Look to Korea for players. Develop Chinese players. Think about an East Asian baseball league, with teams from Beijing, Shanghai, Seoul, and Taipei. How's that for team, inter-city rivalry, and interest generation? That would be huge!
I really think that many in Japan suffer from low-self esteem while simultaneously sharing a notion of cultural superiority. The mania over "Made in Japan" in MLB smacks of insecurity - it must be some form of validation. Snap out of it! Maybe NPB and MLB needs some fresh blood. Maybe more gaijin would improve the NPB game and eliminate talk of an inferior league. Matsui and Ichiro sure helped the Yanks and Mariners. I remember the old NL/AL debate on superiority - all balogna. Start thinking globally about baseball and many of the worries people have outlined might become less significant.
I agree with the comments on develping the home grown talent. I think it's too difficult for a youngster from Japan to be thrown into the U.S. minors without a support group. He's too young, too tempted, and would be too isolated. 5-7 years seems to be a reasonable time for a NPB team to have him under contract. Then he should be able to test the market, in Japan or elsewhere.
The bright college kid in Japan should also be able to consider a scholarship to a U.S. university on a baseball scholarship. Of course, his English skills would have to be quite good. Then he could be drafted later on by a U.S. or Japanese club. Of course, after all those years in the US, re-integration into Japanese society might be difficult.
NPB also should lift the exclusionist rule on limited gaikokujin players. Move to a free market. Go out and compete for the services of some MLB players and not just the cast-offs like Petagine and Rhodes who become NPB stars. Target some solid middle of the road younger players (more affordable) with the personal attributes, flexibility, and baseball skills to succeed in NPB. These skills might be slightly different from what MLB is looking for. NPB might also be willing to offer more bucks than the $500k-$1M the decent, but solid, younger players are making. Heck, Benny Agbayani was working for $200k.
In the U.S., we have many foreign-born players, non-U.S. citizens, playing baseball who do very well and who fans love for what they do on the field and not for where they live. Perhaps some should focus a bit less on Japanese baseball and start focusing on just baseball.
Develop a camp in the Dominican Republic for talented youths who have no opportunity for schooling or employment. Some can play a darn good game of baseball. Look to Korea for players. Develop Chinese players. Think about an East Asian baseball league, with teams from Beijing, Shanghai, Seoul, and Taipei. How's that for team, inter-city rivalry, and interest generation? That would be huge!
I really think that many in Japan suffer from low-self esteem while simultaneously sharing a notion of cultural superiority. The mania over "Made in Japan" in MLB smacks of insecurity - it must be some form of validation. Snap out of it! Maybe NPB and MLB needs some fresh blood. Maybe more gaijin would improve the NPB game and eliminate talk of an inferior league. Matsui and Ichiro sure helped the Yanks and Mariners. I remember the old NL/AL debate on superiority - all balogna. Start thinking globally about baseball and many of the worries people have outlined might become less significant.
Bologna vs. Baloney
[ Author: Guest: George Steinbrennernot | Posted: Sep 27, 2003 2:24 PM
]
Ah Westbay-san. I thank you sincerely for the clean up of my posts on occassion, but I think you have been out of the States a bit too long, or maybe never been to "Da Bronx." There, when I was a wee lad, we called processed meat, questionable or other bogus statements "baloney."
Bologna is a place in Italy known for a meat sauce and another spelling of that processed Oscar Meyer stuff. Balogna must be the cut rate processed meat sold at that new Costco outlet out near Tama. Now that's living large. Wal-Mart and now Costco, lord (or whoever) help Japan.
[By Westbay: Sorry about that. That's the only spelling of the word I know. Looking it up on WordNet, I see that baloney is a valid spelling, meaning "pretentious or silly talk or writing." Won't make that mistake again.]
Bologna is a place in Italy known for a meat sauce and another spelling of that processed Oscar Meyer stuff. Balogna must be the cut rate processed meat sold at that new Costco outlet out near Tama. Now that's living large. Wal-Mart and now Costco, lord (or whoever) help Japan.
[By Westbay: Sorry about that. That's the only spelling of the word I know. Looking it up on WordNet, I see that baloney is a valid spelling, meaning "pretentious or silly talk or writing." Won't make that mistake again.]
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The second thing that has caught my eye is what I understand to be the desire of the Japanese youngster (sorry, I've forgotten his name) who is regarded as the likely first pick in the Japanese draft and wants some promises he will be able to pursue a major league career in much less than the 9 years the current agreement between NPB and its players locks up Japanese talent.
In some ways, these two items coincide. It seems to me that so long as NPB locks up Japanese talent for 7 years or more, they're pretty safe, because it will guarantee they have stars. If they go below 5 years, that will be the end of NPB as we know it, because it won't have many stars. It usually takes a year or two for a young Japanese draftee to be productive, and if he's gone in another two or three years if he's really good, NPB will have lost its ability to retain home-grown stars. From 5 to 6 years, I suspect NPB could manage, but to me, that's the gray area.
This young draftee, if he gets his way, could easily tick off veterans who would also like to have a chance. That could fuel contractual out clauses and maybe even a full-scale change in the number of years Japanese talent is locked up. This is a far more likely scenario the more Japanese youngsters (the future generation of ballplayers) agree with the Sports Illustrated writers' assertion about dreaming of MLB over NPB, as there are more players who might be willing to emulate this current young hot prospect.
Also, any sport or league which loses its hold on local youth (the future ticket buyers) is in danger of decline. Such a decline in the attractiveness of NPB could certainly provide fuel for merger. This process is likely to take years to fully develop, even if it is taking root now. That time would permit science to solve the issue which is often mentioned as a bar to a trans-Pacific baseball league: that of lengthy travel. We have the technology to travel the Pacific in the time it takes an ordinary jet to travel the 3,000 miles or so from the East Coast of the U.S. to the West Coast or vice versa. However, the Concorde was not economically viable. If science could find a way to make such travel economically viable, that issue would essentially disappear.
I don't mean to suggest that even if such an idea is taking root in Japanese youth (and I have no way to measure if it is even occurring), that NPB will not continue to exist as we know it. However, if one wishes to keep NPB as it is, NPB must find ways to keep this thought from being prevalent in Japan's youth for its own health. If the NPB can't stop this idea from gaining steam, it may find itself unable to maintain its current status. As I've maintained in other threads on the future of NPB, its ability to keep some stars and its rank and file players are essential to maintaining its current high level independent status.
What do you folks think?
Jim Albright