Sho Nakata Going for 100 HRs

As Plugh-san notes on his Baseball Japan Blog, Nakata ties Seibu's Ohshima Hiroyuki with 86 career high school home runs. Today's Nikkan Sports (paper edition) hashes out all of those high schoolers who have hit 60 or more. Here's their countdown:

86+ 2007 Nakata Sho - Osaka Toin - ?
86 1999 Ohshima Hiroyuki - Saitama Sakae - Seibu Lions
83 1987 Suzuki Ken - Urawa Gakuin - Seibu Lions
83 2001 Nakamura Takeya - Osaka Toin - Seibu Lions
75 1996 Imai Yasutaka - Matsuyamasho - Meiji University
74 1993 Hasezawa Masaru - Saitama - Josai University
74 2006 Ina Ryuta - Omi - SoftBank
70 1994 Johjima Kenji - Beppu University Joint High - Daiei
70 2005 Hirata Ryosuke - Osaka Toin - Chunichi
68 1993 Hirao Hiroshi - Omiya East - Hanshin
64 1985 Kiyohara Kazuhiro - PL Gakkuen - Seibu
61 1988 Etoh Akira - Kanto - Hiroshima
60 1992 Mastui Hideki - Seiryo - Giants

Interestingly, the two players who went on to college (Imai and Hasezawa) both dropped out of the baseball program while in college. Ohshima, whom Nakata tied, has yet to earn a regular spot with Seibu. It's the guys on the lower end, Matsui, Etoh, and Kiyohara, who went on to really be considered sluggers in NPB.

I also found it interesting that Seibu snatched up most of these high school sluggers. I know that some teams put more emphasis on high school achievement than others, but I'd only really looked at Koshien participation, not high school career home runs before.

I wonder if there's something that's contributed to a surge in high school home runs that would seem to devalue the recent cast of characters, when compared to the Old Timers like Matsui, Etoh, and Kiyohara. Maybe a more juiced ball?

Also, you forgot to mention Kenji Johjima in that group. He and Matsui were both NPB mashers who went on to perform brilliantly in MLB as well.

I predict Nakata will hit about 94 home runs. I put the over/under at 94.5 for the betting folks.