Players Vote to Strike

The AP article mentioned above is getting their information from Nikkan Sports, which is where I get most of mine, so all I can add is the following:

648 out of 661 votes were in favor of a strike.
7 votes were against.
6 people abstained.

91 players have yet to be counted. It's not mentioned if these are the players in Athens, those who couldn't make the meeting, and/or the foreign players not in the Players' Association.

Representatives for the ball players still want to strike only as a last resort, i.e., if the owners continue to ignore the players' questions. From the reactions of the owners and their representatives, they have no intention of telling the players any more than they have so far, which is that they're going to do what they want, just accept it. (My impressions of their answers, not what's reported in Nikkan.)

Do the players have a legitimate complaint? According to a recent poll done in Shukan Baseball, yes. 92.5% of 8,560 replies said, yes, they support the players striking. The number one reason is that the owners continue to ignore the players and fans in this matter. 3.2% opposed, 4.3% were "other." Considering that a poll in Shukan Baseball represents the strongest of fans, it's apparent that the players here have backing like none of the MLB strikes.

Still, the main message that representatives from the Players Association stressed was that, while they've got the right and backing to strike, it's only a card to play as a last resort. They want to avoid it if at all possible. The AP article didn't mention that, yet it's very much stressed in Nikkan Sports.

So, where do we go from here? When will the strike be (if it comes down to it)?

August 16 will be the next player representative meeting, the same day that represenatives from the Central and Pacific leagues have a meeting. It's unknown if they'll get together, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

August 23, a week later, will be a follow-up meeting of the player representatives, getting feedback of the previous week's talks after representatives had disseminated information to the players for team-by-team discussions. That will be the earliest a strike decision will be made.

On August 30 there will be an executive meeting. The way the Commissioner is talking, it's unlikely that anything will happen there. The Commissioner has all but said that he has no power to do anything, including mitigate between the players and the owners. He appears to just want to be left in peace.

September 8 is a special owners meeting. I expect that the owners will finish approving the Orix/Kintetsu merger then, and perhaps announce a second merger (Daiei and Lotte?). This will be followed by a great deal of pandemonium.

So, there you have it. The current schedule of events to follow, and the likely outcomes. If anyone thinks a different outcome is possible, please let me know. While I support the players' decision to strike, I'd very much like to see it avoided. I'd very much like to see the owners open up and allow players (and fans) to have a say.

Note: The players have offered a salary cap or other reductions in salary, but working as partners, not being dicated to. I don't see Nabetsune (Watanabe-owner) or any of the other owners going to the barganing table, though. (Although I'm sure they'll be happy to implement something like that on their own without the players' approval.)

So, what does everyone else think about a proposed strike?

Personally I feel the players have just cause to strike. If a club was going to the wall and there was no other option then I would fully back a merger. However, someone has stepped in, offering to buy a club and retain its identity, and save jobs. What riles me is the arrogance of the owners who won't even meet the prospective bidder, which shows their total disregard to fans and players alike.

While I'm so annoyed by this situation, I can't imagine the frustration of the fans who are about to lose their club, the team they follow week in and week out, and when someone is willing to splash some cash and save the day, the people who make the game are ignored. Disgusting!

I say strike and show these selfish owners they don't control the game!

One argument may be that neither Horie nor anyone else has demonstrated how his zillions will stop the Buffaloes from losing 40-oku yen a year. He has not clarified how his buying the club will make it any more popular. For the time being, it remains that not enough people go to see the Buffaloes.

- So, what does everyone else think about a proposed strike?

I hope they do strike. They need to force the owners to listen. The owners right now have no care for anyone else's opinion. The players would have my support for a strike.

- So, where do we go from here? When will the strike be (if it comes down to it)?

They need to strike before the post-season. This would send a message to the owners, the players need to strike through the post-season, and the Japan Series.

What I don't get is why the government hasn't stepped in to do something. I mean, the Japanese government has gone to great lengths to save poorly structured banks that are trillions of yen in dept. Iirc, Daiei has been in big trouble, and they got a helping hand, too.

Is this all that can be done?

From an economic standpoint I believe the owners are right. The market shows it just doesn't allow for some teams. So let them fold (like the government should have done with some banks) or merge if that will save the day. Personally I think shrinking the number of teams in Japan is not necessarily a bad thing.

On the other hand, I would welcome new ownership. Fresh blood would probably do Japanese baseball good. So let new people in. But that is where the problems start because that means a perceived challenge to the powers in charge. They are so used to things being the way they are that it will take time for them to adapt to any kind of new situation, whatever it is. So just to force them out of their ivory tower I would support a strike. They need to learn that they can't go on behaving the way they do.

What I, like most people in the forum, oppose is the owners' complete lack of communication in this and other matters. Infuriating. So, just to put pressure on them to start communicating I would not only support a strike but advise one.

- From an economic standpoint I believe the owners are right. The market shows it just doesn't allow for some teams. So let them fold (like the government should have done with some banks) or merge if that will save the day. Personally I think shrinking the number of teams in Japan is not necessarily a bad thing.

You're telling me 150+ million Japanese can't support 10 teams? Come on! I know the economy has been in a bad shape for a while, but unless people are starving in poverty, 150 million people can support 10 teams.

The real problems are:

1. old men
2. corporations (actually if you take those two, you pretty much get Japan's problems as a whole)
3. no one telling the Giants to shove it

You have no revenue sharing, no NPB-wide broadcast deal if I am correct, no salary cap or disincentive to spend away like a luxury tax, and not even a league-wide baseball. The prices for Giants' gear seems to give me the impression there is no plan for merchandising either (it's US$70 for a cap!).

NPB doesn't need American baseball men, they need American marketing men.

Thanks but no thanks.

Japanese baseball needs American marketing men just as much as the Giants need number four batters. So please let the American marketing people stay home. We see every day around us what happens when (greedy) Americans try to run the show away from home. Most of the time it isn't exactly a pretty sight, and they always charge a fortune.

Teams are already losing enough money as it is (like many teams in MLB, if you dare look at the bottom line). Now that baseball has become a business the economic perspective has become important. When a business is losing money it folds. Simple as that. The market just doesn't support it anymore. These are the laws of economics.

Of course there is room for improvement in the marketing department, but I'd prefer that the Japanese find their own solution to this problem. They need their own players and marketing men to step up and do something about their old men and the corporations, not some flashy east coast suit.

- Old men...

Just out of interest: apart from Nabetsu, which "old men" are you referring to in particular?

I think crowd attendances certainly show that some markets can't support certain teams. Certainly in Kansai, Orix and Kintetsu have struggled for market share, and the Tokyo area is still saturated with teams.

I'd like to hear the possibility of relocations discussed by the owners. Remember, Shikoku still doesnt have a baseball team, and Matsuyama has a fine stadium. Games could also be played in Takamatsu and Kochi to give the team a true Shikoku identity.

Muscat Stadium in Okayama is also a great facility, situated between Kurashiki and Okayama city (a combined population of over 1 million people) has always pulled good crowds when the pro games come to town.

Just some alternative ideas to a merger.

- So let them fold (like the government should have done with some banks) or merge if that will save the day. Personally I think shrinking the number of teams in Japan is not necessarily a bad thing.

This won't solve the problem, it's because of the way the corporations in Japan run the teams that we have the Kintestu-Orix merger. The corporations have no knowledge of how to run baseball teams, and right now it's a NPB dominated by the Yomiuri Giants.

"Old men" in my perception refers to the heads of the corporations that own the teams in Japan and the executives they have appointed to run their teams.

What Takihana states in the Yomiuri Shimbun interview is sound reasoning. He will no doubt go on to do something completely different from what he states, but that is another matter.

I would also favour giving new people a chance to establish teams in new locations. Get some fresh blood into the system.

One of the bottom lines is that the Pacific League is in trouble and the Central League is afraid to be dragged down with them. A large issue is revenue. A big earner for PL teams would be playing games against the Giants. That is what makes money in Japan whether you like it or not. In terms of crowds, TV coverage, etc. One league would achieve this, but introducing inter-league play would do the trick as well.

The whole episode is a great opportunity for NPB to reinvent itself. Look at how the English FA has reinvented itself with the Premiership. I am not saying it is a holy grail (because it isn't), but you can learn from their case. Just as you can learn from the way MLB runs their leagues (not a pretty sight).

Bottom line is you need the Giants to get anywhere in NPB. They are a money machine. The problem with money machines is that they always want money in return for their services. That is how they became money machines in the first place. You would love to see them give up their arrogance and start serving NPB instead of suffocating it.

- The whole episode is a great opportunity for NPB to reinvent itself. Look at how the English FA has reinvented itself with the Premiership. I am not saying it is a holy grail (because it isn't), but you can learn from their case. Just as you can learn from the way MLB runs their leagues (not a pretty sight).

This whole thing is a pretty laughable assertion.

First, you completely dismiss any thought of using some ideas proven in American baseball, and then speak of your admiration for the Premiership? The Premiership has exactly one regularly profitable club, Manchester United. Only Arsenal turn a profit more than every now and then, and they only turned one this year by going undefeated and then being very inactive on the transfer market.

Yes, you can learn from the way MLB runs their leagues. Selig has increased revenues by over 150% during his tenure as commissioner. Most teams are playing in a brand new stadium or a refurbished one, nearly all from public expense. TV contracts boomed. There's interleague play, the wild card, teams setting up their own cable networks.

Even by MLB's "accounting," more teams are profitable than in the Premiership, and private estimations put most or all teams as profitable. Teams selling for more and more seem to confirm this.

I don't particularly like the guy, but if NPB had a leader like Selig, NPB economics wouldn't be so awful right now. There's a reason he's not leaving the Commish's office.

What we can learn from MLB is that over 50% of the players in the league are on some kind of steroid or other performance enhancing drug. Why?

The pressures are high. If you don't deliver you lose your job. After a player realizes that the guy that homered off him is likely to be doing steroids just like his teammate in the locker next to him, the step to start using the needle is small. It's the choice between decent money or being out of a job. Remember, most ballplayers have few other skills. So MLB is more like SLB if you ask me. Steroid League Baseball. People ask me all the time what the big difference is between MLB and NPB play. It's steroids. And steroids have a far greater impact on the game then many may have you believe.

The U.S. game is based on the long ball. If you hit it consistently you will get a fat contract. That is what the fans and TV audiences want to see, besides seeing their club win. Players discovered long ago that to compete at that level consistently all help is welcome. Steroids help them recover faster and give them that little extra power that will lift the ball out of the park instead of being caught. Take steroids out of the MLB game and the stats would drop dramatically.

In the case of Bonds: Hitting over 70 home runs is just ridiculous. McGuire admitted he did it on performance enhancing drugs and now Bonds passes him clean? Yeah sure. I can't prove anything, but I don't believe it either. At least McGwire had the decency to not lie about it. But only because Andro was not on the list and he knew he was not going to get punished. Otherwise McGuire would have done the same routine Bonds is doing now in the Balco saga.

The MLB drugs list is the real joke here. MLB talks a good talk about keeping drugs out of the game, but they go on to catch no one. No control whatsoever. Because they know that if they would really start hunting drug offenders with zero tolerance policy that over 50% of the players would test positive. End of league. They would lose their sponsorships because no company wants to be associated with drug offenders. They would lose their TV deal for the same reason. This really is a league built on sand.

Selig talks a lot but does little to nothing. The managers and coaches have a "I don't want to know about it" attitude. Everybody turns a blind eye. But sooner or later this is going to catch up with them. But for the time being they prefer to keep their eyes shut.

Please don't tell me this is the individual responsibility of the players. It is, but the league should administer a good drugs policy. Right now they are showing that they really don't want to. So for as long as this situation continues, I have no single reason to respect MLB nor its executives. They are a bunch of hypocrits.

And, yeah, you are right. Some of their marketing strategies are fine and I believe NPB would be wise to adopt some of them. But it would take time and patience to adopt these strategies in Japan. Something U.S. marketing execs just don't have.

- What we can learn from MLB is that over 50% of the players in the league are on some kind of steroid or other performance enhancing drug. Why?

Really, this is a poor asseration. You have no proof to pinpoint a number of players taking steroids in MLB.

- The pressures are high. If you don't deliver you lose your job.

Really, is that why many teams are stuck with big contracts that no one what to take?

- In the case of Bonds: Hitting over 70 home runs is just ridiculous. McGuire admitted he did it on performance enhancing drugs and now Bonds passes him clean? Yeah sure. I can't prove anything, but I don't believe it either. At least McGwire had the decency to not lie about it.

Actually, Mark McGwire took anthrodestine the whole year and said there was nothing wrong with it, you can't prove Bonds has taken anything.

I know I can't prove anything regarding steroid use. That is the big problem. Few people can. But I am not crazy. I've talked to guys that have played at varying levels in U.S. and Japanese pro ball, and most won't tell you about steroid use because there is some kind of "don't tell" code among players. Only when you talk to guys that have been released or dare to be frank, then you get the real story, and the real story is that performance enhancing drug use is wide spread in MLB. If you choose to believe otherwise that is your problem.

The fat contracts are for the top 5% of the players. The majority never get to sign a contract like that. MLB is not just the big stars. There is a whole range of players below that level.

Again, of course I can't prove Bonds took anything. But that doesn't mean he didn't do so. Looking at his stats (big jump in home runs in 2000 after he was up for his new contract), the way he looks (compare his rookie card to the way he looks now), the super-human results (73 home runs). Sorry, but I just don't buy it.

I wouldn't be surprised if Bonds would contract some kind of steroid use related illness after he retires (like testicle cancer for instance). Look at what happened to Flex Wheeler the body builder. These guys are the example of how things can go awfully wrong with steroid use in the long run.

- [...] and the real story is that performance enhancing drug use is wide spread in MLB.

Like I said, again, there you go with these false assertions. Yes, there are some people in MLB that take steroids, but it's not a wide spread problem in MLB. Regardless of what you believe there isn't a problem.

- If you choose to believe otherwise that is your problem.

I choose to believe otherwise because there is no proof to prove that there is widespread steroid use in MLB.

[by Admin: OK. We're getting very much off topic here. Tie this in with NPB or kill the thread.]

Sorry Flynn, some of your statements about the UK Premiership are off the mark. According to this BBC article [Link], there were five profitable clubs in the Premiership: Manchester United, Arsenal, Newcastle, Liverpool and Birmingham. Also, according to the article, the shaky financial shape of the Premiership over the past few years was a fluke caused by overspending on players, and the league should be much healthier in the near future. It says that "the Premiership remains the wealthiest league in the world, well ahead of its nearest rival, Italy's Serie A. The Premier League generated income of £1.2bn in 2002-3, up 10% on the previous year, whereas Serie A scored 1.2bn euros (£800m)."

I think what this means is that, at least in terms of attendance, UK football is having much more success than MLB.

Sorry for the tangent, Westbay-san.

- It says that "the Premiership remains the wealthiest league in the world, well ahead of its nearest rival, Italy's Serie A. The Premier League generated income of £1.2bn in 2002-3, up 10% on the previous year, whereas Serie A scored 1.2bn euros (£800m)."

I suspect they mean the wealthiest football (soccer) league in the world, not sports league in general.

- I think what this means is that, at least in terms of attendance, UK football is having much more success than MLB.

In terms of attendence? MLB teams play 162 games a year. What do they play in the Premiership, 40? The Cubs drew almost 3 million fans at home last year. How many did Man U draw, a little over a million? I don't see how the Premiership can complete in terms of attendence given MLB's [and NPB's] huge advantage in games played.

- I think what this means is that, at least in terms of attendance, UK football is having much more success than MLB.

A Premiership club plays 18 home games a year. The average gate in 2003/2004 was 34,884. I don't have the [MLB] league averages for the 2004 season, but it's around ~31,000. And MLB plays over 4x as many home games as the Premiership. The Premiership is NOT doing better than MLB.

- Also, according to the article, the shaky financial shape of the Premiership over the past few years was a fluke caused by overspending on players, and the league should be much healthier in the near future.

A fluke? Oh come on. The BBC is sugarcoating it for you. I'm a pretty big fan of English (not UK Premiership mate, English!) football, so I think I can answer this with some authority. The lack of spending recently throughout Europe was the result of many clubs facing major financial trouble. It was either that or die. There's still some in major trouble, too - Everton may have to sell Wayne Rooney to pay off debts.

As for steroids, I would be pretty shocked if NPB is completely clean, and I'd be even more shocked that the "produce now" culture that exists in MLB does not also exist in NPB.

I am sure NPB is not completely clean. There might very well be a trickle down effect from MLB. That is the league everybody looks up to. It remains the highest level in baseball. And of course there are a number of former MLB players in NPB. I am sure some of them took their drug use along across the Pacific. However, I don't believe it is widespread among Japanese players yet. There is a weird kind of naievity in that department among Japanese players. But I would not be surprised if that will change in the not too distant future.

The "produce now" mentality exists in Japan, but in a different form, and not (yet) at all costs. It is not as individual based as in the States, and the coaches play a far greater role.

When I say NPB can learn from the Premiership, I meant to say that the FA took a fledging league and put the life back into it. Like McGwire and Sosa did for MLB after the strike. NPB should take the best elements from these leagues and go their own way from there. I am sure you'll agree.

But please don't tell me MLB is clean until proven otherwise. It is an insult to my intelligence and I am no lawyer.

This is only speculation, but here it goes. In Japan there are 12 pro teams with one farm team each, which brings the total number of professional players in Japan to approximately 840 (12x70). In the Majors, there are 30 teams and each team has a AAA, a AA, three A and an R (rookie league) franchise. So each team has 6 other teams, bringing the total number of professional players in North America to approximately 5,250 (30x25x7). That is a big difference in competition making the "produce now" factor much much lower in NPB.

Last year, every(?) major leaguer was tested anonymously for drugs and they found that 5-7% of the players tested positive. That brought in some new harsher rules for drug testing (extremely lax in my opinion). So it doesn't seem to be 50%. Also, if you look at the difference in power among the Japanese players and the ML players, you will see that the MLers are much stronger than the Japanese. Just look at Hideki Matsui's numbers as an example. The build of the players also look very different, even though both leagues have weight training as a core portion of their training.

I don't see many NPBers using performance enhancing drugs. They just don't look it. They don't have as much of a force pushing them to it like the Majors.

I agree with your assessment of NPB drug use. And yeah, I can't prove it. I once saw a guy with Orix ni-gun who looked like a body-builder, but he was the exception rather then the rule.

The whole MLB anonymous drug testing procedure was and is a big joke. It would have been hilarious if it wasn't so sad. The whole procedure is just ridiculous. My grandma could (and would) have done a better job.

First of all, they asked guys anonymously whether they were using performance enhancing drugs (PED). It's asking a cheater to confess he is cheating without having to face any consequences. It's a bit like asking a bank robber anonymously whether he has robbed the bank and promising him not to tell the police. You really believe you are going to get a straight answer? C'mon. The telling statistic here is that they still came up with a 5% confession rate.

Secondly, the only people that get caught (in any sport) are the ones that are careless. If you do it the proper way you can get away with it unless the governing body starts putting the pressure on with zero tolerance policies. U.S. Track and Field is a good example. The athletes' only big threat was people in the know having quarrels and going public. That is basicly what happened in the Balco saga. Everybody subsequently went running for cover and hired the best lawyers to save the day. The least of their worries is the U.S. Track and Field Federation. They seem to be in bed with the athletes.

The same story goes with MLB. They're too afraid to look at the dark side of their sport because it would mean losing sponsorships when it would become widely known. The only governing body track and field athletes have to worry about is the IOC because their procedures are tight. That's why we have seen a drop in performance with these athletes lately.

MLB should have been all over this Balco case because it involved their star player and his trainer who even went along on an official MLB trip of Japan (sorry Westbay-san, trying hard to tie this in with Japan/NPB again). Would they have cared they would have taken action, but so far I don't see them doing anything. Maybe there is something going on behind the scenes that I can't see, but I doubt it. When they put the pressure on I believe they will find that not 5% but over 50% of their league is on PED. That is not an exaggeration. I believe it's a conservative estimate.