Victory Chance 100%
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What they're basing this on is the fact that Yakult has gone on to finish in first place each of the four times that they finished the first half (up to the All Star Break, which is a little over half) with the best winning percentage.
In 1978, Yakult finished the first half 0 games above the Giants, but with a .609 winning percentage compared to .603. They finished the season well ahead with a winning percentage of .596 compared to .570.
After Nomura-kantoku had taken over, they won the division pretty much hands down in both the first and second halves in 1993, '95, and '97. (Nomura had a tendency to kill his pitching staff every other year.)
So, holding on to their "hidden" first place status (after the Giants shot them out of first last week and seem to have waken up), the Swallows are looking to make it a perfect 5 for 5.
As I'm sure you all know, the Central League has decided to hold the most wins as the first sort key when showing the standings, winning percentage comes second. Since the Giants and Swallows have a different number of tied ball games, it may be possible to have the winner in wins have a worse winning percentage. I know I've written that the team with the most wins will have a playoff with the team with the best winning percentage should that be necessary, but I don't think that I mentioned that it'll be a 3-game playoff. So, consider it stated.