Hanshin Tigers 2008 Preview

Hi All.

I'm going to be trying to write game reports for the Tigers, so like NipponHam 11, I thought I would present a preview.

Last season, whilst similar in some respects to 2004's under-performance, did see the Tigers getting to third place and a playoff place. To be honest this did not impress the great majority of fans or the front office. The playoff performance itself was poor and under Okada, under whom the Tigers have yet to win a single post season game. Both starting pitching and batting were exposed as inadequate in many respects with few players shinning, and Okada's management was once again exposed to be reactive and one-dimensional. The coaching team as a whole were inadequate and the end of the season saw the dismissal of Shoda - the chief batting instructor. Hirosawa's first year as a coach did not go so well, but he survived. The coaching team are under orders to improve next season.

Trades and Postings

As a result of their underwhelming performance in 2007, Hanshin went trading in a big way. The major signing this past off season was Arai from Carp. He was perhaps the best player available and, as he showed in the Olympic qualifiers, a match winner who can handle pressure games and turn a game around. This is something that Hanshin has lacked since Kataoka.

The flip side of this success is that Hanshin failed to protect the fast center fielder Akamatsu who was taken in compensation by Hiroshima (why any team should have compensation escapes me, but those are the rules). This kind of stupidity is what we have come to expect from Okada and crew (re Kida). Akamatsu is faster than Akahoshi and has considerable potential - it would have been better if he had been protected and Nohmi left off.

A big trade was the move of Kanemura from Nippon Ham to Tigers in exchange for Nakamura. This will strengthen the Tigers' pitching lineup and Kanemura is supposed to relish playing in front of big crowds.

The final trade of note was the swapping of Hamanaka and Yoshino for Hirano and Abe from Orix. The management's patience with Hamanaka finally ran out. A player with considerable potential which was cut short by a series of shoulder injuries, Hamanaka will probably fill the DH role with Orix. Hirano is a very active infielder and will add some speed to what is an average speed side (barring Akahoshi). The pitcher exchange will maybe be beneficial; Abe is an unknown quantity whereas Yoshino was always a variable quality pitcher.

Unfortunately, the trade of Fukuhara (who is even more erratic and variable) did not happen. In dispensing with two foreigners, Yan and Darwin, the Tigers also picked up outfielder Lew Ford from the Minnesota Twins and Atchison from AAA Tacoma. It is difficult to say how either of these will perform, though opinion I have read indicates that Ford is another Shane Spencer in the making whilst Atchison has a lot of potential.

Batting

Almost everyone underperformed last year and there are some questionmarks over several players. Imaoka had another terrible year and must now be in a similar situation to Hamanaka (though Okada likes him and this does matter). Sekimoto was so poor that there was talk of trading him. Hiyama's decline continued, but he is massively popular and will continue to fill the pinch hitter role. Akahoshi was mediocre and his base stealing was well down, probably due to his back problems. If this continues, the Tigers are really going to miss Akamatsu. Kanemoto had a quiet year but still managed to be the most productive player on the side.

On the plus side, Lin came through nicely, as did Sakurai, Shoda, Saka, Kanoh, and Takahashi. All of these players should play more next year, but this will depend on Okada being bold. The possible starting lineup looks like this:

1. Akahoshi
   
2. Toritani
3. Sakurai/Lin
4. Kanemoto
5. Arai
6. Imaoka
7. Yano/Kanoh
8. Sekimoto
9. Pitcher

Of these, only Kanemoto and Arai are fixed. Kanemoto is always going to bat fourth if he plays and, Arai has indicated he doesn't want to bat ahead of Kanemoto. If Kanemoto is injured, Arai will fill the number four position.

With the retirement of Sheets, first is a problematic position and it is possible that Ford will be used here (who would use him in the outfield when you have Lin and Sakurai?). However, this lineup assumes that Okada will use Imaoka at third and Arai at first. This is actually a strong lineup with considerable potential as long as Imaoka can discover his form.

Defensively, it is very sound and secure. However, I would like to see Yano being phased out and gradually replaced by Kanoh. This is unlikely to happen and we could well continue to see Noguchi and Asai being used (two more who should have been put out to pasture).

Pitching

Pitching is very problematic. The good news, apart from the signing of Kanemura, is the return of Shimoyanagi, though how long he can continue to pitch well must be questionable given his age. Vogelsang will also fill a starting role, but needs to be able to go deeper than he was able to last season. Uezono made a solid enough start, but needs to move up a level. Sugiyama and Andoh were disappointing, and Fukuhara was abysmal. With the latter, it is impossible to say how he will pitch in any given year, and really he should have been traded long ago. Taiyo and Nohmi have both failed to live up to their potential. The real disappointment was the treatment of Kojima, who showed considerable potential, but fell foul of Okada who consigned him to the farm team.

Beyond the elite JFK (Jeff Williams, Fujikawa, Kubota) closing trio, Tigers' relief pitching has been weak. Watanabe is showing considerable promise, and it is to be hoped that Atchison can also contribute.

A major problem in 2006 was the failure of the starters to go deep, placing enormous strain on the relief pitchers. One has to hope that this will be addressed and that 2007 will be different.

Prospects

This is a team with considerable power and ability. Bringing it out is the problem. There is a big questionmark over the pitching, given the poor coaching performance (one Daily Sports cartoon showed Sugiyama with a pair of binoculars trying to find the strike zone), but if this can hold up then the powerful batting should be enough to win lots of matches. Reaching the playoffs should be assured, but a pennant is not guaranteed. Furthermore, Okada does need to drastically improve his post-season game management, otherwise a Japan Series is out of reach.

Christopher, I look forward to your game reports this season. It's a tough job watching every game and keeping up with all the details. I certainly wouldn't have time to do it properly. However, I have one or two requests: I wonder if you could be a little more positive. I appreciate that you've got issues with Okada, but there's no mention in your preview about the Tigers' magnificent recovery last year (confounding many self-styled experts) which put them into the playoffs.

And more objective comments please! For example, "This kind of stupidity is what we have come to expect from Okada and crew..." is not what this Tiger fan wants to read. Stick to the facts and I'll be happy.

But I honestly wish you all the best in this challenging undertaking.

Nice job Christopher, and very much appreciated. Getting information in English on NPB teams this time of year is really very good.

Sometimes one would prefer one's home team would do better and thus it is tempting to get a bit negative about certain things. Understood.

As for Ford and Atchison, I think you might get pleasantly surprised. A few years ago, when some Twins outfielders went down with injuries, Ford stepped in and posted some really good numbers. He clearly earned a starting job, but it seems the Twins never quite saw him that way. Atchison has posted some good numbers when called up here and there.

The only thing I would be concerned with is that he is a reliever and, well, with "JFK" taking the innings, will there be enough for Atchison to shine? Are Spencer and Vogelsong still with the team?

Recommendation: Add the positions for the guys in the lineup.

Good job, thank you.

Many thanks for your kind words. I am aiming to inject a little color into these reports which will include the odd comment about Okada's performance and suchlike. I also want to reflect the opinion of a lot of Tigers fans towards Okada which is a kind of resigned toleration.

The failure to protect or even use Akamatsu properly was astonishing and seems to have been based on Okada's prejudices rather than any sensible consideration of things. Given that Kida also went to Carp because of Okada's dislike, stupidity seems to be an appropriate term.

- I am aiming to inject a little color into these reports which will include the odd comment about Okada's performance and suchlike.

Fine - no problem with that. As long as it is colorful and not merely mean-spirited. All I'm asking is that you remember to give credit when it's due. As I said, the Tigers made a truly magnificent comeback last season, so someone or something within the organization must have contributed to that. Be fair and you'll attract more readers.

Good job. It's inspired me to write one up on Chiba Lotte.

Christopher,

Hope the day job is working out as your potential as a baseball journalist is lacking - how can I put this gently - any knowledge of the game.

Aren't you the guy who predicted 100% that the Tigers would end up in the cellar last year? And now you dare to do a write up on the same team?

Your biased view of this team is most apparent in your misguided statements about Okada. You correctly, finally, point out that the team last year was filled with under-performing players, yet Okada was able through force of will to make the playoffs. You also fail to mention that the Dragons also routed the Giants, who have superior talent to any team in the NPB. They also steamrolled the Hamsters, lead by a manager who won the Series the year before and is now coaching in the bigs, Hillman, on their way to winning the Japan Series. You call these clearly ridiculous statements as adding color to your write up? Wow!

Stick to cricket, the overs and unders, and wickets, something that you may know something about.

I do admire the effort, as I know your review took time to write up.

zman - We make predictions, we get them right, we get them wrong. That's the way it goes.

However, your view of Okada is a minority. His position is under threat and as I have pointed out this in other threads, this is what the Tigers' management have stated. Reaching the playoffs is not considered an achievement in the Central League and this is something else you need to understand. It may yet become so, but it is probably too new at the moment. Given this situation - no one really cares about the "achievement" of the playoffs which you hold so dear. The pennant or the Japan Series are what matter.

The Tigers' post season failure demonstrates that Okada has not yet discovered a formula to win post-season games. So far his record is 6 losses and no wins, but without any sign that his side could actually win a post-season game. He needs to do something about this quickly, because as I said, the knives are out and he has very little fan support. Your posts always seem to lack (ignore) this background knowledge and more care and consideration on this aspect would help them considerably.

- ... no one really cares about the "achievement" of the playoffs ...

- Okada has not yet discovered a formula to win post-season games ... He needs to do something about this quickly, because as I said, the knives are out and he has very little fan support.

But Christopher, if nobody cares about the playoffs, why are the knives out because Okada hasn't won any playoff games? Surely it would be enough just to win the CL pennant. Using your logic, that's all Okada would need to do to keep everybody happy, because the playoffs are supposedly unimportant. I don't know about your circle of fans up there in the capital, but I can guarantee that everybody down here would have been ecstatic if they had won the Nippon Series from third place.

But let's look at the Tigers' record in context, shall we? Two pennants and three playoff campaigns in five years isn't all that bad. As long as they're competitive down the stretch (which they were last season), that's all you can ask. Sure beats the cellar year after year. I think we've all become a little too spoiled.

I am referring to post-season games, not playoff games in particular. The playoffs are a step to the Japan Series, but getting to the playoffs is not the achievement - not yet. Winning the Series is, and we in the capital would have also been ecstatic if we had (won the Series that is).

For fans we are talking about the actual rewards (the pennant and Japan Series), and for the management revenue from victory sales. Okada needs to take the team to the Series and win it, not just to get to the playoffs. However if he wins the pennant, that would be enough to ensure his survival.

I think you have a point about being spoiled, but we have only reached one playoff series, not three. Playoffs were only introduced last year and are too new for everyone to get excited about, if they ever do.

Wow, let me explain something to you. Any game after the regular season ends is a post-season game.

Confusing this simple fact dashes any hope for a reasonable argument from the cricket crowd.

Anyway, it will be entertaining to see how your predictions will turn out to be wrong as they were last year. Contrast your write up with Gary Garland's, it's like night and day in terms of understanding of the Tigers and the sport itself.

zman, here we go again with your confrontational attack speech again. Just so you don't try and say I want to attack you on everything here and that I'm a cricket fan also, I agree that Okada deserves some credit. But last year was still a disappointment, and more importantly, your method of attack does no help to any of the claims you try and make here.


- Any game after the regular season ends is a post-season game.

That's nice and all zman, but last time I checked the goal is to win the Nippon Series. Not fail and get beat by the Chunichi Dragons. Okada does deserves credit where it's due and all, but any way you look at it the Tigers' 2007 season, it was a disappointment. 2008 needs to be a better year.

- Confusing this simple fact dashes any hope for a reasonable argument from the cricket crowd.

Just what I meant above, how can anyone take your claims seriously when all you do is name call everyone a cricket fan when they disagree with you? Quite frankly, I'd be amazed anyone here can take your claims seriously. If I didn't know any better, I'd say you were here to start something in every Tigers related thread on these boards with your name calling and confrontational attitude.

- Anyway, it will be entertaining to see how your predictions will turn out to be wrong as they were last year.

Then let's hear your predictions for this year. Why don't you offer your broad and massive knowledge on the Tigers this year?

JBrooks,

I was surprised you have time to respond to my posts, since I thought you were on your way to owning an NPB team since there is such a free market for baseball in Japan. Suggestion for a team name, Fantasy Islanders.

I agree that the Tigers had a rough season, but getting to the playoffs was a major surprise and wonderful to see. It was amazing that Okada could pull his team to third place, and briefly first place, given the poor performance by most of team. That has been my consistent point about the Tigers last year which has been overlooked by many.

As to cricket, Christopher posted on his knowledge of cricket a while back.

As to my prediction, I agree with Gary that it's likely to be a third place finish, but since I am a Tigers fan I am hopeful for a first place finish over the dreaded Midgets.

zman, try reading the posts in full before you comment. I talk about post season games. If you had bothered to read the exchange between Mijow and myself, and particularly my final paragraph in response to your earlier post, you would see that this is exactly what I talk about. Before you talk about understanding, please do make sure that you understand what you are commenting on yourself.

Two members of Hanshin's offensive core, Kanemoto and Akihiro Yano, are rather long in the tooth, and Kanemoto's ARISP number last season was terrible at .263. He also hit just .244 against right handed pitching. That suggests that Sakurai should get the starting center fielder's job in order to continue building on his 2007 experience where he can develop his power potential while Ford plays right.

Lin won't be ready to play again until June, and that may be optimistic. His throwing ability will also be a question mark in the outfield. So he would have to play first while Arai, whose past numbers were partially the product of a postage stamp sized stadium, is spun over to third. Defensively, that has to make coaches very nervous. If Ford fails, they move Sakurai to right and put Akahoshi back in center.

Okada also needs to give Keisuke Kanoh more playing time and they need to work him out at first, too. Because if Hashimoto comes along with that thunder in his bat (though he is probably still two years away), Kanoh will need another place to play if he can fill his potential as a solid average hitter.

Aside from Nohmi, who has tremendous upside but who took a huge step backward in 2007, they need Hirotaka Egusa to step it up. If he could emerge as a starter then Shimoyanagi, who is clearly on his last legs with a .288 batting average against last season (.310 against right handers), can be put into a middle relief role.

If Sugiyama is injured, they just plug Kanemura into that hole (or vice versa) to keep the chain of mediocrity going.

Sugiyama is average. If he finishes his career with a .500 record, he will have done all you can expect of him. Fujita is probably going to be a civilian after this season. Imaoka, barring a freakish comeback, will be traded, I think. No matter what Okada might think of him, team management will want to offload the paycheck. Hiyama's days are finally numbered, too.

Needing a defined role is Takashi Toritani. Is he going to be your number one or two guy? Okada needs to make a decision and stick with it here. Right now, Toritani is kind of neither fish nor fowl the way he is being used.

Second base is an interesting predicament. Hirano or Sekimoto? Part of Sekimoto's problem is that he has felt he needed to hit for more power to keep his job over light hitting Atsushi Fujimoto. Okada needs to tell Sekimoto to stay within himself and let others carry the power load. Hirano is more versatile and probably a better sheer athlete, but how will he hit in Koshien and how will he field on a non-artificial turf? I like both guys a lot, but this will definitely be competitive.

Hanshin thus has some depth offensively, but it is about execution with runners on, and they didn't do that last season. Their defense should also prove to be suspect.

The pitching, which once looked very deep, has really faltered badly. This is therefore a third place team, but only because Yokohama, Hiroshima, and Yakult all suck immensely. They could even end up in fourth if Takada gets lucky with the Swallows' starting pitching and Ryota Igarashi comes all the way back in a closing role. Then it will be Okada heaved into the Dotonbori River at the end of the season and not another Colonel Sanders statue.

Either way, the Tigers will have a whole new coaching staff in 2009.

Glad I could be a trend-setter for the volunteer writers ^_^. Excellent preview, Christopher. Your knowledge is extensive on Hanshin, and we're lucky to have you around.

- Fujita is probably going to be a civilian after this season.

That's such a shame. I took an instant liking to Taiyo when he was signed. I was there at Tokyo Dome on opening night in 2001 as Taiyo was thrown in the deep end - opener Nobuyuki Hoshino had taken a drubbing at the hands of the Giants and, just when the Tigers needed a steady, experienced arm to calm things down, Nomu-san sent in a rookie for his first ever professional assignment.

Every time Taiyo came back from his many injuries, and every time he made the trip from Naruohama to Koshien, I'd hope that this time he'd make something of it.

But when you can only appear in 38 games over six seasons, and even then only last an average of 3.26 innings a game (5 wins, 9 losses, 4.33 ERA), maybe it's time to start weighing up your career options.

I love these team reviews and understand it's coming from a fan's perspective. So I don't mind the opinions at all since I'm not holding him to the level of a professional writer.

Besides, in the follow-up comments, other opinions can be voiced. That's where I find just as much good information.

It seems like this forum is improving steadily, and that is great. The the more informed posters we get, the better for everyone.

Anyway, nice post by Christopher, and keep them coming!