Baseball America's Two Cents
Discussion in the Nichi-Bei forum
Comments
That Article Isn't Worth Two Cents
[ Author: EvilEuro | Posted: Oct 18, 2001 6:54 PM
]
Not enough can be said about the inherent ignorance of the American sporting press and from the sounds of it, this article is nothing more than continued confirmation of that fact. If this was indeed
Re: That Article Isn't Worth Two Cents
[ Author: westbaystars | Posted: Oct 18, 2001 10:09 PM
| YBS Fan
]
Ah, wonderful rebuttle! Thank you.
For those of you who don't subscribe (and don't want to pay for such an article after that review), it was posted to the Pro Yakyu Mailing list here.
As a follow up on the mailing list, Aladdinsane-san delved further into the mysteries of Ishii's portliness and pointed out that the numbers given for him belonged to Bunch!
I really liked EvilEuro-san's line, "American scouts are infatuated with finding 'athletes' who can play baseball instead of finding baseball players who are also 'athletes.'" It reminds me of our high school baseball team manager who dropped players who had been on the team the year before in favor of football players who knew nothing about baseball. These scouts sound like they have the same mentality.
I still think it was one of the best mainstream U.S. press articles of the year, though. Read into it what you will.
For those of you who don't subscribe (and don't want to pay for such an article after that review), it was posted to the Pro Yakyu Mailing list here.
As a follow up on the mailing list, Aladdinsane-san delved further into the mysteries of Ishii's portliness and pointed out that the numbers given for him belonged to Bunch!
I really liked EvilEuro-san's line, "American scouts are infatuated with finding 'athletes' who can play baseball instead of finding baseball players who are also 'athletes.'" It reminds me of our high school baseball team manager who dropped players who had been on the team the year before in favor of football players who knew nothing about baseball. These scouts sound like they have the same mentality.
I still think it was one of the best mainstream U.S. press articles of the year, though. Read into it what you will.
Re: That Article Isn't Worth Two Cents
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Oct 19, 2001 12:15 AM
| HT Fan
]
...from the sounds of it...
[snip!]
Speaking of ignorance, I suggest you read the actual article rather than someone's interpretation of it before ranting next time. I have and found it to be very fair and informative. MLB scouts are highly trained; we
[snip!]
Speaking of ignorance, I suggest you read the actual article rather than someone's interpretation of it before ranting next time. I have and found it to be very fair and informative. MLB scouts are highly trained; we
Re: That Article Isn't Worth Two Cents
[ Author: westbaystars | Posted: Oct 19, 2001 12:59 PM
| YBS Fan
]
1908-san wrote:
> Speaking of ignorance, I suggest you read the actual
> article rather than someone's interpretation of it
> before ranting next time.
Acutally, this was partly my fault. I paraphrased too much out of the original article, focusing mostly on points I found unusual. It isn't easy writing about something others may not hava access to without plagiarising - something I wanted to avoid. I need more work in that area.
But with Mr. Evil reacting to my comments, I can see that there was such a taint to the article which I didn't feel so much when I first read it. Rereading the article, I can see how his interpretation could still be valid, even though I didn't have the same impression as he the first time I read it.
> [MLB scouts] [q]uestioning a player's abilities --
> something they're qualified for and paid to do --
> does not make them racists.
Very good point. I found it interesting to hear what they think of the players over here. I had assumed when reading it that they'd seen Matsui's arm or Nakamura's defense, neither of which I thought were bad. (I've seen Nakamura make some fine plays on the hot corner a number of times - but not often enough to counter the scouts' critisisms.) And as you said, they're qualified to question a player's ability, so I figured that these scouts had seen something that my untrained eye hadn't.
But I think that EvilEuro-san doubts that the scouts quoted had ever been to a game in Japan, and if so, then far too few to be qualified to make such statements.
> Speaking of ignorance, I suggest you read the actual
> article rather than someone's interpretation of it
> before ranting next time.
Acutally, this was partly my fault. I paraphrased too much out of the original article, focusing mostly on points I found unusual. It isn't easy writing about something others may not hava access to without plagiarising - something I wanted to avoid. I need more work in that area.
But with Mr. Evil reacting to my comments, I can see that there was such a taint to the article which I didn't feel so much when I first read it. Rereading the article, I can see how his interpretation could still be valid, even though I didn't have the same impression as he the first time I read it.
> [MLB scouts] [q]uestioning a player's abilities --
> something they're qualified for and paid to do --
> does not make them racists.
Very good point. I found it interesting to hear what they think of the players over here. I had assumed when reading it that they'd seen Matsui's arm or Nakamura's defense, neither of which I thought were bad. (I've seen Nakamura make some fine plays on the hot corner a number of times - but not often enough to counter the scouts' critisisms.) And as you said, they're qualified to question a player's ability, so I figured that these scouts had seen something that my untrained eye hadn't.
But I think that EvilEuro-san doubts that the scouts quoted had ever been to a game in Japan, and if so, then far too few to be qualified to make such statements.
Re: That Article Isn't Worth Two Cents
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Oct 19, 2001 11:26 PM
| HT Fan
]
Westbaystars-san wrote:
I had assumed when reading it that they'd seen Matsui's arm or Nakamura's defense, neither of which I thought were bad. (I've seen Nakamura make some fine plays on the hot corner a number of times - but not often enough to counter the scouts' criticisms.)
Actually, the controversial article reports that,
I had assumed when reading it that they'd seen Matsui's arm or Nakamura's defense, neither of which I thought were bad. (I've seen Nakamura make some fine plays on the hot corner a number of times - but not often enough to counter the scouts' criticisms.)
Actually, the controversial article reports that,
Re: That Article Isn't Worth Two Cents
[ Author: EvilEuro | Posted: Oct 22, 2001 6:59 PM
]
Actually, the controversial article reports that, ?One scout says Matsui has the arm and range for shortstop but would be better suited for second base on a contender and might not have the patience to bat leadoff.? So it?s not Matsui?s arm he?s questioning; the article doesn?t elaborate on why this scout thinks he should play second. Must be racism, right EvilEuro?
I agree that Matsui doesn?t have the patience to bat leadoff. He struck out 83 times this year versus 46 walks and his OBP was only 0.365 -- definitely not a leadoff man. However, according to the article, another scout disagrees, ?claiming Matsui is a half-step faster than Ichiro (now considered the fastest player in the American League), has the instincts to steal bases and will have the punch to bat leadoff.?
First off, other than the recommendation of a scout who won?t even let his name be used for fear of everyone laughing at him for uttering such tripe, why wouldn't you let Kazuo Matsui continue to play his natural position should he come over to America? I mean, really, what?s the reason? The scout admits that he has the range. The scout also admits that he has the arm. He?s a four-time Best Nine player. Which one of those things makes him better suited to play second base for a ?contender? instead of staying at shortstop? Heck, of the teams left in the playoffs, I?d take Kazuo Matsui as my SS before I?d ever consider using Tony Womack, Rey Sanchez or Carlos Guillen as he?s better than all of them in terms of glove, arm and hitting ability. So much for the notion that a ?contender? would have better use for him at 2nd base than shortstop.
While he is a good hitter for the most part, he doesn?t have middle of the order numbers and with his speed, it would probably be best if he hit in the 1 or 2 slot, most likely number one. He doesn?t have a number three hitter?s average or power numbers for the Major Leagues, where the number 3 slot generally goes to your best overall hitter. That is the one point that would be easy for even the densest of scouts to notice.
Secondly, Kazuo Matsui?s numbers, despite your interpretation of them, are perfectly fine for a leadoff hitter. Leadoff hitters don?t usually sport high .400 on base percentages. Matsui?s .365 on base percentage would make him a top 10 quality leadoff hitter. The only regular leadoff hitters with on base percentages higher than .380 this year were Ichiro (.381), Craig Biggio (.382) and Frank Catalanotto (.391). After that, you?re talking other ?elite? leadoff hitters like Johnny Damon (.324), Fernando Vina (.357), Shannon Stewart (.371), Juan Pierre (.378), Kenny Lofton (.322), Chuck Knoblauch (.339), Eric Young (.333), Ray Durham (.337) and the like. None of those guys exactly blows Kazuo Matsui out of the water in the OBP department, and a lot of them are well known leadoff hitters who lag significantly behind what Kazuo Matsui provides. His walk total (46) is about average for a leadoff hitter where the above players has 30 (Ichiro), 33 (Vina), 39 (Catalanotto), 41 (Pierre), 42 (Young), 46 (Stewart), 47 (Lofton), 58 (Knoblauch), 61 (Damon), 64 (Durham) and 66 (Biggio). His K totals are high, but they?re completely tolerable if his OBP and batting average were to maintain the same levels.
Of course they?ve been to games in Japan. Scouts scout, i.e. they go to games and watch players play -- "Teams are scrambling to get a leg up on scouting players." Everyone?s entitled to his or her opinion but to argue that the scouts in question haven?t seen these players play in person is silly.
Scouts may scout over here, but teams consider it an expense to send their good scouts to Japan or anyplace else where they don?t have ?camps? set up unless someone has passed on a very good word about a player. And even then, they only check them out for a few games to make their evaluations before heading back to the States. If you want an accurate portrayal of how most teams scout Japan, go rent Mr. Baseball again and notice how the Dodgers finally scout there. They send a guy over to check out a few games and then it?s right back over to the States. It?s still that way for the most part.
The ?scouts? that the author quotes and their opinions all sound like they were achieved from watching a few highlight reels or clips of said players in action. None of the scouts that were quoted were noted as being scouts who specialize in Japan or are based there. They were just ?scouts?, no more, no less, which means that they were probably stateside scouts who have seen the guys play here and there on tape. Odds are that unless these guys live in Japan on a full-time basis that I?ve seen all of the players in question play more games, field their position and take more at-bats against a variety of pitchers than all of the scouts quoted in this article combined.
And finally ?- get off the kick that I?m implying racism. I?m saying that scouts are still holding on to long held stereotypes. That is not racism. It is ignorance. If you want to say that I?m accusing others of racism so you can claim some sort of moral high ground in all of this, be my guest. But get off the kick about me crying racism where even I say it doesn?t exist.
What I am saying is that despite the success of Ichiro and others, the Japanese baseball player, and their league as a whole, is still considered inferior to Major League Baseball and looked down upon in a manner that is nothing short of arrogant. It has kept teams from scouting seriously over there in the past and still skews how people feel about players associated with the game over there.
And it doesn?t stop at native Japanese players either. It trickles down to how scouts and teams feel about American players who go to Japan. Come on? name the last big time American player who came back from Japan and made a big splash. Cecil Fielder is the last one I can really think of. You might include Tony Fernandez on that list, that?s debatable. But Cecil is the last player who came from Japan to truly be a star and not just a role player. There are others like Soriano with the Yankees and Timo Perez of the Mets who went to Japan to play minor league ball because they didn?t like the deals they got in the States, but those are another segment altogether.
Bobby Rose was up and down with the California Angels for four years, never getting to appear in more than 30 games a season before leaving Major League Baseball at the age of 27. Not exactly a lot of time to prove one?s self. He spent 7 years in Japan putting up very good batting average numbers, adequate home run numbers and good RBI totals? and he couldn?t get a sniff from the Major League clubs again.
Warren Cromartie had a good run with the Expos before somehow being unable to land a gig in the Major Leagues after it was decided he was washed up at the age of 30. He spent 7 years with the Giants, put up very good numbers and still couldn?t get anyone to take a serious look at him until the Royals played him for
I agree that Matsui doesn?t have the patience to bat leadoff. He struck out 83 times this year versus 46 walks and his OBP was only 0.365 -- definitely not a leadoff man. However, according to the article, another scout disagrees, ?claiming Matsui is a half-step faster than Ichiro (now considered the fastest player in the American League), has the instincts to steal bases and will have the punch to bat leadoff.?
First off, other than the recommendation of a scout who won?t even let his name be used for fear of everyone laughing at him for uttering such tripe, why wouldn't you let Kazuo Matsui continue to play his natural position should he come over to America? I mean, really, what?s the reason? The scout admits that he has the range. The scout also admits that he has the arm. He?s a four-time Best Nine player. Which one of those things makes him better suited to play second base for a ?contender? instead of staying at shortstop? Heck, of the teams left in the playoffs, I?d take Kazuo Matsui as my SS before I?d ever consider using Tony Womack, Rey Sanchez or Carlos Guillen as he?s better than all of them in terms of glove, arm and hitting ability. So much for the notion that a ?contender? would have better use for him at 2nd base than shortstop.
While he is a good hitter for the most part, he doesn?t have middle of the order numbers and with his speed, it would probably be best if he hit in the 1 or 2 slot, most likely number one. He doesn?t have a number three hitter?s average or power numbers for the Major Leagues, where the number 3 slot generally goes to your best overall hitter. That is the one point that would be easy for even the densest of scouts to notice.
Secondly, Kazuo Matsui?s numbers, despite your interpretation of them, are perfectly fine for a leadoff hitter. Leadoff hitters don?t usually sport high .400 on base percentages. Matsui?s .365 on base percentage would make him a top 10 quality leadoff hitter. The only regular leadoff hitters with on base percentages higher than .380 this year were Ichiro (.381), Craig Biggio (.382) and Frank Catalanotto (.391). After that, you?re talking other ?elite? leadoff hitters like Johnny Damon (.324), Fernando Vina (.357), Shannon Stewart (.371), Juan Pierre (.378), Kenny Lofton (.322), Chuck Knoblauch (.339), Eric Young (.333), Ray Durham (.337) and the like. None of those guys exactly blows Kazuo Matsui out of the water in the OBP department, and a lot of them are well known leadoff hitters who lag significantly behind what Kazuo Matsui provides. His walk total (46) is about average for a leadoff hitter where the above players has 30 (Ichiro), 33 (Vina), 39 (Catalanotto), 41 (Pierre), 42 (Young), 46 (Stewart), 47 (Lofton), 58 (Knoblauch), 61 (Damon), 64 (Durham) and 66 (Biggio). His K totals are high, but they?re completely tolerable if his OBP and batting average were to maintain the same levels.
Of course they?ve been to games in Japan. Scouts scout, i.e. they go to games and watch players play -- "Teams are scrambling to get a leg up on scouting players." Everyone?s entitled to his or her opinion but to argue that the scouts in question haven?t seen these players play in person is silly.
Scouts may scout over here, but teams consider it an expense to send their good scouts to Japan or anyplace else where they don?t have ?camps? set up unless someone has passed on a very good word about a player. And even then, they only check them out for a few games to make their evaluations before heading back to the States. If you want an accurate portrayal of how most teams scout Japan, go rent Mr. Baseball again and notice how the Dodgers finally scout there. They send a guy over to check out a few games and then it?s right back over to the States. It?s still that way for the most part.
The ?scouts? that the author quotes and their opinions all sound like they were achieved from watching a few highlight reels or clips of said players in action. None of the scouts that were quoted were noted as being scouts who specialize in Japan or are based there. They were just ?scouts?, no more, no less, which means that they were probably stateside scouts who have seen the guys play here and there on tape. Odds are that unless these guys live in Japan on a full-time basis that I?ve seen all of the players in question play more games, field their position and take more at-bats against a variety of pitchers than all of the scouts quoted in this article combined.
And finally ?- get off the kick that I?m implying racism. I?m saying that scouts are still holding on to long held stereotypes. That is not racism. It is ignorance. If you want to say that I?m accusing others of racism so you can claim some sort of moral high ground in all of this, be my guest. But get off the kick about me crying racism where even I say it doesn?t exist.
What I am saying is that despite the success of Ichiro and others, the Japanese baseball player, and their league as a whole, is still considered inferior to Major League Baseball and looked down upon in a manner that is nothing short of arrogant. It has kept teams from scouting seriously over there in the past and still skews how people feel about players associated with the game over there.
And it doesn?t stop at native Japanese players either. It trickles down to how scouts and teams feel about American players who go to Japan. Come on? name the last big time American player who came back from Japan and made a big splash. Cecil Fielder is the last one I can really think of. You might include Tony Fernandez on that list, that?s debatable. But Cecil is the last player who came from Japan to truly be a star and not just a role player. There are others like Soriano with the Yankees and Timo Perez of the Mets who went to Japan to play minor league ball because they didn?t like the deals they got in the States, but those are another segment altogether.
Bobby Rose was up and down with the California Angels for four years, never getting to appear in more than 30 games a season before leaving Major League Baseball at the age of 27. Not exactly a lot of time to prove one?s self. He spent 7 years in Japan putting up very good batting average numbers, adequate home run numbers and good RBI totals? and he couldn?t get a sniff from the Major League clubs again.
Warren Cromartie had a good run with the Expos before somehow being unable to land a gig in the Major Leagues after it was decided he was washed up at the age of 30. He spent 7 years with the Giants, put up very good numbers and still couldn?t get anyone to take a serious look at him until the Royals played him for
Re: That Article Isn't Worth Two Cents
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Oct 24, 2001 2:53 AM
| HT Fan
]
Save your insults, lectures and appeals to authority. I never said that I agreed with the BA scouts, only that I enjoyed the article, and that I
Re: That Article Isn't Worth Two Cents
[ Author: EvilEuro | Posted: Oct 24, 2001 7:32 PM
]
Save your insults, lectures and appeals to authority. I never said that I agreed with the BA scouts, only that I enjoyed the article, and that I
Re: That Article Isn't Worth Two Cents
Re: That Article Isn't Worth Two Cents
Re: That Article Isn't Worth Two Cents
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Oct 26, 2001 1:20 AM
| HT Fan
]
What I fear though, is that scouts will start scouting the high school system in Japan and picking up players from there. I
Re: That Article Isn't Worth Two Cents
[ Author: westbaystars | Posted: Oct 26, 2001 2:24 PM
| YBS Fan
]
> [...] For
> instance, any MLB team could sign Terahara, even
> after a NPB club has drafted him.
On that note, I'm sure many of you are aware that Los Angeles and Atlanta both had scouts schedule and recieve appointments with the high school fire baller. After the interview with Lasorda, it was reported that Terahara would consider signing with L.A. should he be drafted by a team he didn't want to play for.
Of the 8 domestic teams he interviewed with, he was receptive to the Dragons, BayStars, and Giants. I think he showed interest in Daiei as well, but don't recall for sure.
> instance, any MLB team could sign Terahara, even
> after a NPB club has drafted him.
On that note, I'm sure many of you are aware that Los Angeles and Atlanta both had scouts schedule and recieve appointments with the high school fire baller. After the interview with Lasorda, it was reported that Terahara would consider signing with L.A. should he be drafted by a team he didn't want to play for.
Of the 8 domestic teams he interviewed with, he was receptive to the Dragons, BayStars, and Giants. I think he showed interest in Daiei as well, but don't recall for sure.
Re: That Article Isn't Worth Two Cents
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Oct 25, 2001 4:41 AM
| HT Fan
]
One more thing...
Front office people have a reason to speak on conditions of anonymity, not scouts. What, is there a scout out there that thinks he
Front office people have a reason to speak on conditions of anonymity, not scouts. What, is there a scout out there that thinks he
Re: That Article Isn't Worth Two Cents
[ Author: EvilEuro | Posted: Oct 19, 2001 8:11 PM
]
Speaking of ignorance, I suggest you read the actual article rather than someone's interpretation of it before ranting next time. I have and found it to be very fair and informative.
I got a chance to read the article once the link to the Yahoo groups posting of it was up and reading the whole article doesn
I got a chance to read the article once the link to the Yahoo groups posting of it was up and reading the whole article doesn
Re: That Article Isn't Worth Two Cents
[ Author: Guest | Posted: Feb 2, 2003 2:06 AM
]
Did you even read the article? They gave Matsui plenty of credit. They just mentioned one's scouts questions for balance. But you aren't concerned with any balance, are you? You just want some fluff piece.
Reading the Article
[ Author: westbaystars | Posted: Feb 2, 2003 1:13 PM
| YBS Fan
]
The topic of having read the article or not was covered above. At the time of the post, the article could only be accessed via subscription, so most people only had my summary of the article to go by. Furthermore, 2001 was an awful year for the U.S. press so far as reporting on Japanese baseball was concerned. There were a great many "experts" who showed their cluelessness time and again in the North American press. In such a context, many people assumed the worst from anything being written over there.
If you read more of this site, you'll find that not many of us go for "fluff pieces." And we're very critical of North American writers who don't do their research. 2001 saw way too many clueless mainstream writers trying to jump onto the "Next Ichiro" bandwagon.
Now, which Matsui are you referring to? I pointed out that one scout claimed that Hideki's home runs would most likely translate to doubles in the Majors. I disagree with that claim, and said so. After reviewing the article, though, (I hadn't read it since August of 2001) I agree that there was a balance. But my review of the article (with the hope that people will read the original) was simply my own interpretation of it. Again, in the context of the 2001 North American press, it was easy to jump to a negative conclusion of the article just based on my review of it.
As for Kazuo, just mentioning converting him to second base is considered an insult to many. It's almost become a knee-jerk reaction for some to equate any scout wanting to convert K. Matsui to second with incompentence. Quoting such an incompentent scout in the mainstream press is then equated to journalistic incompentence. And since I mentioned that the original article contained such a suggestion in my review, it was deamed not worth the subscription fee, or even two cents, whichever is less.
Was the article balanced? Sure. Did it say some things that people who follow Japanese baseball are critical of? Yes.
If you read more of this site, you'll find that not many of us go for "fluff pieces." And we're very critical of North American writers who don't do their research. 2001 saw way too many clueless mainstream writers trying to jump onto the "Next Ichiro" bandwagon.
Now, which Matsui are you referring to? I pointed out that one scout claimed that Hideki's home runs would most likely translate to doubles in the Majors. I disagree with that claim, and said so. After reviewing the article, though, (I hadn't read it since August of 2001) I agree that there was a balance. But my review of the article (with the hope that people will read the original) was simply my own interpretation of it. Again, in the context of the 2001 North American press, it was easy to jump to a negative conclusion of the article just based on my review of it.
As for Kazuo, just mentioning converting him to second base is considered an insult to many. It's almost become a knee-jerk reaction for some to equate any scout wanting to convert K. Matsui to second with incompentence. Quoting such an incompentent scout in the mainstream press is then equated to journalistic incompentence. And since I mentioned that the original article contained such a suggestion in my review, it was deamed not worth the subscription fee, or even two cents, whichever is less.
Was the article balanced? Sure. Did it say some things that people who follow Japanese baseball are critical of? Yes.
Blast from the past
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Feb 2, 2003 2:30 PM
| HT Fan
]
I don't get it. Why reply to a thread that's over a year old? That article, like this discussion, is a bit dated. There are plenty of more recent resources worth looking at, including:
- Japanese Possibilities for the MLB for 2003 by Jim Albright
- Who?s Next? by Mike Edwards
- Japanese Baseball: How Good Is It? Pt. 2 by Clay Davenport
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
[ Author: CFiJ | Posted: Oct 19, 2001 9:00 AM
]
Oh man. I agree with Evil Euro; that article was bad. Why the hell would Matsui Kazuo have to bat lead-off? He could easily go into number 3 spot. And there's absolutely no reason to put him at second. And I was shocked at their description of Ishii. He's not fluent in Japanese (his wife, the irrepressibly cute Kisa Ayako, is the one fluent in English), and he hasn't been trying to get extra rest; he's asked Yakult to put him on a MLB-like pitching schedule. And Matsunaka? He hit a home-run with one hand this year! I think he has the power to play first.
But what really surprises me is that not one article about possible cross-overs has mentioned Takahashi Yoshinobu. He's a complete five-tool player with good baserunning speed, an accurate cannon for an arm, great range in the outfield, and he can hit for power and average.
It does amaze me. I thought the performance of Ichiro and Shinjo would change some people's view of Japanese baseball, but they seem as arrogant and skeptical as ever. You know what's crazy? Imagine if Shinjo hadn't hurt his thigh this year. He might have had career numbers while going to a whole new league and style of baseball.
It saddens me. I have some complaints about the Japanese style of baseball, but I don't think there's anything wrong with the players. I think of Matsui Hideki playing a 162 game schedule while knowing that whenever a pitcher gets behind in the count he's going to get a fastball. I think Matsui could 50+ in the Majors.
But what really surprises me is that not one article about possible cross-overs has mentioned Takahashi Yoshinobu. He's a complete five-tool player with good baserunning speed, an accurate cannon for an arm, great range in the outfield, and he can hit for power and average.
It does amaze me. I thought the performance of Ichiro and Shinjo would change some people's view of Japanese baseball, but they seem as arrogant and skeptical as ever. You know what's crazy? Imagine if Shinjo hadn't hurt his thigh this year. He might have had career numbers while going to a whole new league and style of baseball.
It saddens me. I have some complaints about the Japanese style of baseball, but I don't think there's anything wrong with the players. I think of Matsui Hideki playing a 162 game schedule while knowing that whenever a pitcher gets behind in the count he's going to get a fastball. I think Matsui could 50+ in the Majors.
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
Oh, and one more thing.
[ Author: CFiJ | Posted: Oct 19, 2001 9:11 AM
]
This is just a thought. Some scouts and/or reporters may be basing their reports on TV broadcasts of games. And this could be the source of so many ideas that Japanese players don't have strong enough arms to succeed in the Majors.
Before I left Japan this year, I read an interview with Shinjo that made some interesting points. Shinjo said that he was surprised that the major leaguers' arms weren't as strong as he originally thought. From the outfield, he said, they looked just as strong as the Japanese players did. But when he went home and watched the highlights on TV, it seemed as if the MLB'ers were firing it across field really hard. He realized that the reason was camera angles. The infield camera shots were at a higher angle in the U.S. This tended to cut down on the visible arc on a throw. But in Japan, the camera is lower. So when a shortstop makes the throw, it looks like it arcs more. Today, a friend of mine sent me a video of NTV's broadcast of Nagashima's last game at the Tokyo Dome, and I saw that Shinjo's right. The camera angle is definitely lower in Japan.
Even so, I'm still surprised that people doubt the arms of Japanese players after the great throws made by Ichiro and Shinjo this season...
Before I left Japan this year, I read an interview with Shinjo that made some interesting points. Shinjo said that he was surprised that the major leaguers' arms weren't as strong as he originally thought. From the outfield, he said, they looked just as strong as the Japanese players did. But when he went home and watched the highlights on TV, it seemed as if the MLB'ers were firing it across field really hard. He realized that the reason was camera angles. The infield camera shots were at a higher angle in the U.S. This tended to cut down on the visible arc on a throw. But in Japan, the camera is lower. So when a shortstop makes the throw, it looks like it arcs more. Today, a friend of mine sent me a video of NTV's broadcast of Nagashima's last game at the Tokyo Dome, and I saw that Shinjo's right. The camera angle is definitely lower in Japan.
Even so, I'm still surprised that people doubt the arms of Japanese players after the great throws made by Ichiro and Shinjo this season...
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
[ Author: Analysis | Posted: Oct 22, 2001 2:35 AM
]
Greetings: I read your reply to the Baseball America article with interest. Certainly there were some inaccuracies, I thought more directed at Ishii than Matsui, but it any event, my question is: Why so critical of Nakamura? I have not formulated an opinion on this issue, but it seems to me he is a pretty good player, maybe not a great athlete, but a pretty good player.
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
[ Author: mijow | Posted: Oct 27, 2001 12:21 AM
| HT Fan
]
On that point about Terahara stating from the outset who he'd consider playing for - that seems to happen a lot in Japan, where kids choose not to sign with a club and go play in the corporate leagues for a couple of years. What generally happens in the States? Would a kid straight out of high school reject an offer from a pro team and play at the amateur or college level just because he didn't like the team that drafted him? Any insights?
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Oct 30, 2001 8:50 PM
| HT Fan
]
What generally happens in the States? Would a kid straight out of high school reject an offer from a pro team and play at the amateur or college level just because he didn't like the team that drafted him?
Every year, many drafted high school students elect to play college baseball rather than sign with a Major League club. Some do it because they want to improve their draft position, others because they want the 'college experience' rather than the life of a minor leaguer. Either way, I suspect 'like' rarely enters the picture -- more a question of maturity and economics.
Every year, many drafted high school students elect to play college baseball rather than sign with a Major League club. Some do it because they want to improve their draft position, others because they want the 'college experience' rather than the life of a minor leaguer. Either way, I suspect 'like' rarely enters the picture -- more a question of maturity and economics.
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
[ Author: Guest: Diamondback | Posted: Nov 29, 2001 7:38 AM
]
Very interesting discussion. Thanks, guys. I just saw this forum referenced (ironically from Baseball America's site, http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/columnists/askba.html), and I will be checking back here for additional discussions. I look forward to any additional news about Japanese players, particularly those that may be interested in coming to the U.S.
I do want to make a couple of observations about last month's discussion. So please bear with this newcomer.
1) ALWAYS take anything attributed to a scout (or anything else in print, for that matter) with a grain of salt. Most scouts will be somewhat less than forthcoming with their reports, some will be purposely vague or misleading about their evaluations, some will be less than qualified to make a full report, some will have an axe to grind (and may be trying to skew others' evaluations), and some will simply be incompetent. Always remember that some scout recommended that the Pittsburgh Pirates sign Derek Bell. d
FWIW, I agree that many (although not all) American scouts obsess over athletic ability at the expense of actual baseball skills.
2) Since I've never seen any NPB players play, I would welcome any evaluations of their abilities. However, the statement that Little Matsui would make a better shortstop & leadoff hitter than Tony Womack is not very descriptive (it could also be said of a dozen minor-league shortstops in the U.S.). How quick are Matsui's hands? Or his feet? Does he generate good bat speed? Does he chase a good breaking ball in the dirt? How efficiently does he turn the double play?
3) Ichiro & others have shown that the gap between MLB & NPB is less than was previously thought in the States. But there is still a gap, is there not? I mean, Tuffy Rhodes? Doesn't the NPB still limit the number of foreigners on each team's roster? This appears to be an indication that they see themselves as slightly inferior to MLB, just as the quality of American automobiles & radios is generally less than that of Japan (although I do realize that cultural forces are at surely play in the NPB, as well).
If there is indeed a gap in the quality of play, a straight comparison of statistics is of limited value. The contention that Godzilla would hit 50 in the U.S. is somewhat more helpful. But please keep in mind that the U.S. minor leagues have lots of guys who -- despite hitting 30 homers a year at AAA -- aren't capable of producing at that level in the majors.
Thanks for your insight into the world of Japanese baseball. It is appreciated.
I do want to make a couple of observations about last month's discussion. So please bear with this newcomer.
1) ALWAYS take anything attributed to a scout (or anything else in print, for that matter) with a grain of salt. Most scouts will be somewhat less than forthcoming with their reports, some will be purposely vague or misleading about their evaluations, some will be less than qualified to make a full report, some will have an axe to grind (and may be trying to skew others' evaluations), and some will simply be incompetent. Always remember that some scout recommended that the Pittsburgh Pirates sign Derek Bell. d
FWIW, I agree that many (although not all) American scouts obsess over athletic ability at the expense of actual baseball skills.2) Since I've never seen any NPB players play, I would welcome any evaluations of their abilities. However, the statement that Little Matsui would make a better shortstop & leadoff hitter than Tony Womack is not very descriptive (it could also be said of a dozen minor-league shortstops in the U.S.). How quick are Matsui's hands? Or his feet? Does he generate good bat speed? Does he chase a good breaking ball in the dirt? How efficiently does he turn the double play?
3) Ichiro & others have shown that the gap between MLB & NPB is less than was previously thought in the States. But there is still a gap, is there not? I mean, Tuffy Rhodes? Doesn't the NPB still limit the number of foreigners on each team's roster? This appears to be an indication that they see themselves as slightly inferior to MLB, just as the quality of American automobiles & radios is generally less than that of Japan (although I do realize that cultural forces are at surely play in the NPB, as well).
If there is indeed a gap in the quality of play, a straight comparison of statistics is of limited value. The contention that Godzilla would hit 50 in the U.S. is somewhat more helpful. But please keep in mind that the U.S. minor leagues have lots of guys who -- despite hitting 30 homers a year at AAA -- aren't capable of producing at that level in the majors.
Thanks for your insight into the world of Japanese baseball. It is appreciated.
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
[ Author: CFiJ | Posted: Nov 29, 2001 11:40 PM
]
2) Since I've never seen any NPB players play, I would welcome any evaluations of their abilities. However, the statement that Little Matsui would make a better shortstop & leadoff hitter than Tony Womack is not very descriptive (it could also be said of a dozen minor-league shortstops in the U.S.). How quick are Matsui's hands? Or his feet? Does he generate good bat speed? Does he chase a good breaking ball in the dirt? How efficiently does he turn the double play?
Well, we're talking about the premier players in NPB. Kazuo Matsui is universally considered the best shortstop, both offensively and defensively, in Japanese baseball. Not only does he play stellar defense on turf, but he's a switch hitter who can hit .300 or near .300 from both sides of the plate. He has gap power. I think he could bat third or fifth or sixth. Hell, that's what Shinjo did for the Mets all year, and Matsui is a much better hitter than Shinjo.
3) Ichiro & others have shown that the gap between MLB & NPB is less than was previously thought in the States. But there is still a gap, is there not? I mean, Tuffy Rhodes?
Sigh. Look, Tuffy Rhodes has had the chance in Japan to do what he never had a chance to do in the U.S.; play every day. Because the Japanese leagues don't have the depth of the Major Leagues (i.e.; large minors systems with waiting prospects), the Japanese teams are forced to try and improve their players, instead of just tossing them aside when they don't perform right away. Not to mention that it's been about six years since Tuffy played in the Majors. He's more experienced now, and could have certainly improved his game. Look at Barry Bonds: he never hit over 50 in his career until this year. Yeah, it's a career year, and Tuffy probably won't hit over 50 again, but Rhodes is not a good example to demonstrate any gap between the leagues.
Doesn't the NPB still limit the number of foreigners on each team's roster? This appears to be an indication that they see themselves as slightly inferior to MLB, just as the quality of American automobiles & radios is generally less than that of Japan (although I do realize that cultural forces are at surely play in the NPB, as well).
Cultural forces play a bigger role than anything else, I think. Japan is inferior to the Majors in one major thing: depth. Japan limits itself to mostly Japanese players. MLB takes the best players from all over the world, including Japan. Each Japanese team only has one minor league team, while every major league team has at least four. Major League teams can cast a wider net than Japanese teams are willing to. So, that limits the Nippon Professional Baseball leagues as a whole. But the players themselves, OTOH, are perfectly able to play at the Major League level.
Well, we're talking about the premier players in NPB. Kazuo Matsui is universally considered the best shortstop, both offensively and defensively, in Japanese baseball. Not only does he play stellar defense on turf, but he's a switch hitter who can hit .300 or near .300 from both sides of the plate. He has gap power. I think he could bat third or fifth or sixth. Hell, that's what Shinjo did for the Mets all year, and Matsui is a much better hitter than Shinjo.
3) Ichiro & others have shown that the gap between MLB & NPB is less than was previously thought in the States. But there is still a gap, is there not? I mean, Tuffy Rhodes?
Sigh. Look, Tuffy Rhodes has had the chance in Japan to do what he never had a chance to do in the U.S.; play every day. Because the Japanese leagues don't have the depth of the Major Leagues (i.e.; large minors systems with waiting prospects), the Japanese teams are forced to try and improve their players, instead of just tossing them aside when they don't perform right away. Not to mention that it's been about six years since Tuffy played in the Majors. He's more experienced now, and could have certainly improved his game. Look at Barry Bonds: he never hit over 50 in his career until this year. Yeah, it's a career year, and Tuffy probably won't hit over 50 again, but Rhodes is not a good example to demonstrate any gap between the leagues.
Doesn't the NPB still limit the number of foreigners on each team's roster? This appears to be an indication that they see themselves as slightly inferior to MLB, just as the quality of American automobiles & radios is generally less than that of Japan (although I do realize that cultural forces are at surely play in the NPB, as well).
Cultural forces play a bigger role than anything else, I think. Japan is inferior to the Majors in one major thing: depth. Japan limits itself to mostly Japanese players. MLB takes the best players from all over the world, including Japan. Each Japanese team only has one minor league team, while every major league team has at least four. Major League teams can cast a wider net than Japanese teams are willing to. So, that limits the Nippon Professional Baseball leagues as a whole. But the players themselves, OTOH, are perfectly able to play at the Major League level.
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
[ Author: Guest: Diamondback | Posted: Nov 30, 2001 6:15 PM
]
> Well, we're talking about the premier players in NPB.
> Kazuo Matsui is universally considered the best
> shortstop, both offensively and defensively, in
> Japanese baseball. Not only does he play stellar
> defense on turf, but he's a switch hitter who can
> hit .300 or near .300 from both sides of the plate.
> He has gap power. I think he could bat third or
> fifth or sixth. Hell, that's what Shinjo did for
> the Mets all year, and Matsui is a much better hitter
> than Shinjo.
Thanks very much. This gives me an idea of Matsui's capabilities. Hope I get to see him sometime.
I should point out that Shinjo -- while a solid role player -- would not have batted fifth or sixth for any team with any semblance of an offense (instead of the Mets).
Shinjo's .725 OPS was *almost* average for a CF (where he appeared in parts of 53 games), but it was well below average for a corner outfielder (where he played the balance of his 119 games in the OF). Baseball Prospectus calculates Shinjo's VORP (Value Over Replacement-Level Player) to be 5.5, whereas -- among the 37 CF's who had more than 200 PA's in '01 -- the average VORP was 16.9 (avg. OPS was .749). The average corner OF came in at 21.7 & .819.
My only point here is that Shinjo, based on his '01 performance, is a very weak outfielder on a bad team. On a contender, he probably couldn't hold a regular job. This is nothing to be ashamed of -- he clearly showed that he can play at the major league level and contribute, and it is admirable to do so while adapting to a foreign culture. But it is much, much less than I would hope for from Godzilla or Little Matsui if either came over here and joined my favorite team.
> 3) Ichiro & others have shown that the gap between
> MLB & NPB is less than was previously thought in the
> States. But there is still a gap, is there not? I
> mean, Tuffy Rhodes?
>
> Sigh. Look, Tuffy Rhodes has had the chance
> in Japan to do what he never had a chance to do in
> the U.S.; play every day. Because the Japanese
> leagues don't have the depth of the Major Leagues
> (i.e.; large minors systems with waiting prospects),
> the Japanese teams are forced to try and improve
> their players, instead of just tossing them aside
> when they don't perform right away. Not to mention
> that it's been about six years since Tuffy played in
> the Majors. He's more experienced now, and could
> have certainly improved his game. Look at Barry
> Bonds: he never hit over 50 in his career until this
> year. Yeah, it's a career year, and Tuffy probably
> won't hit over 50 again, but Rhodes is not a good
> example to demonstrate any gap between the leagues.
Of course, I realize that Rhodes should be a better player now (than he was when he couldn't hold an MLB job). And anybody is entitled to a career year. I was definitely stretching the point to make a point. Rhodes' performance is simply one piece of data to consider in evaluating any gap between the leagues.
> Cultural forces play a bigger role than anything
> else, I think. Japan is inferior to the Majors in
> one major thing: depth. Japan limits itself to
> mostly Japanese players. MLB takes the best players
> from all over the world, including Japan. Each
> Japanese team only has one minor league team, while
> every major league team has at least four. Major
> League teams can cast a wider net than Japanese teams
> are willing to. So, that limits the Nippon
> Professional Baseball leagues as a whole. But the
> players themselves, OTOH, are perfectly able to play
> at the Major League level.
I am obliged for the perspective. Thanks again.
> Kazuo Matsui is universally considered the best
> shortstop, both offensively and defensively, in
> Japanese baseball. Not only does he play stellar
> defense on turf, but he's a switch hitter who can
> hit .300 or near .300 from both sides of the plate.
> He has gap power. I think he could bat third or
> fifth or sixth. Hell, that's what Shinjo did for
> the Mets all year, and Matsui is a much better hitter
> than Shinjo.
Thanks very much. This gives me an idea of Matsui's capabilities. Hope I get to see him sometime.
I should point out that Shinjo -- while a solid role player -- would not have batted fifth or sixth for any team with any semblance of an offense (instead of the Mets).
Shinjo's .725 OPS was *almost* average for a CF (where he appeared in parts of 53 games), but it was well below average for a corner outfielder (where he played the balance of his 119 games in the OF). Baseball Prospectus calculates Shinjo's VORP (Value Over Replacement-Level Player) to be 5.5, whereas -- among the 37 CF's who had more than 200 PA's in '01 -- the average VORP was 16.9 (avg. OPS was .749). The average corner OF came in at 21.7 & .819.
My only point here is that Shinjo, based on his '01 performance, is a very weak outfielder on a bad team. On a contender, he probably couldn't hold a regular job. This is nothing to be ashamed of -- he clearly showed that he can play at the major league level and contribute, and it is admirable to do so while adapting to a foreign culture. But it is much, much less than I would hope for from Godzilla or Little Matsui if either came over here and joined my favorite team.
> 3) Ichiro & others have shown that the gap between
> MLB & NPB is less than was previously thought in the
> States. But there is still a gap, is there not? I
> mean, Tuffy Rhodes?
>
> Sigh. Look, Tuffy Rhodes has had the chance
> in Japan to do what he never had a chance to do in
> the U.S.; play every day. Because the Japanese
> leagues don't have the depth of the Major Leagues
> (i.e.; large minors systems with waiting prospects),
> the Japanese teams are forced to try and improve
> their players, instead of just tossing them aside
> when they don't perform right away. Not to mention
> that it's been about six years since Tuffy played in
> the Majors. He's more experienced now, and could
> have certainly improved his game. Look at Barry
> Bonds: he never hit over 50 in his career until this
> year. Yeah, it's a career year, and Tuffy probably
> won't hit over 50 again, but Rhodes is not a good
> example to demonstrate any gap between the leagues.
Of course, I realize that Rhodes should be a better player now (than he was when he couldn't hold an MLB job). And anybody is entitled to a career year. I was definitely stretching the point to make a point. Rhodes' performance is simply one piece of data to consider in evaluating any gap between the leagues.
> Cultural forces play a bigger role than anything
> else, I think. Japan is inferior to the Majors in
> one major thing: depth. Japan limits itself to
> mostly Japanese players. MLB takes the best players
> from all over the world, including Japan. Each
> Japanese team only has one minor league team, while
> every major league team has at least four. Major
> League teams can cast a wider net than Japanese teams
> are willing to. So, that limits the Nippon
> Professional Baseball leagues as a whole. But the
> players themselves, OTOH, are perfectly able to play
> at the Major League level.
I am obliged for the perspective. Thanks again.
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Nov 30, 2001 5:32 AM
| HT Fan
]
If there is indeed a gap in the quality of play, a straight comparison of statistics is of limited value. The contention that Godzilla would hit 50 in the U.S. is somewhat more helpful. But please keep in mind that the U.S. minor leagues have lots of guys who -- despite hitting 30 homers a year at AAA -- aren't capable of producing at that level in the majors.
I don't know if the minors have 'lots' of career minor leaguers capable of hitting 30 homers per year in AAA, but I understand your point.
Hideki Matsui is a special talent, however; his career power numbers are in line with Sammy Sosa's, Jeff Bagwell's and Barry Bonds'.
162-game average
Matsui: 35 HR, 112 RBI, .300 BA, .540 Slg. (9 seasons)
Sosa: 42 HR, 116 RBI, .277 BA, .542 Slg. (13 seasons)
Bagwell: 35 HR, 121 RBI, .303 BA, .554 Slg. (11 seasons)
Bonds: 40 HR, 109 RBI, .292 BA, .585 Slg. (16 seasons)
Sure, his monster stats might not directly translate. Ichiro's numbers (again adjusted to 162 games) dropped from 19 HR, 113 RBI, .387 BA, .539 Slg. in 2000 to 8 HR, 71 RBI, .350 BA, .457 Slg. in 2001 after all. But we can agree that Ichiro had an amazing MLB debut despite the drop-off, right?
And even assuming the less talented league and smaller-parks arguments are valid, I suspect you'd be hard pressed to name one AAA journeyman who has/had those kind of career numbers and didn't produce in the majors. Godzilla's the real deal IMO and I hope he gets the chance to prove it in the majors someday soon.
I don't know if the minors have 'lots' of career minor leaguers capable of hitting 30 homers per year in AAA, but I understand your point.
Hideki Matsui is a special talent, however; his career power numbers are in line with Sammy Sosa's, Jeff Bagwell's and Barry Bonds'.
162-game average
Matsui: 35 HR, 112 RBI, .300 BA, .540 Slg. (9 seasons)
Sosa: 42 HR, 116 RBI, .277 BA, .542 Slg. (13 seasons)
Bagwell: 35 HR, 121 RBI, .303 BA, .554 Slg. (11 seasons)
Bonds: 40 HR, 109 RBI, .292 BA, .585 Slg. (16 seasons)
Sure, his monster stats might not directly translate. Ichiro's numbers (again adjusted to 162 games) dropped from 19 HR, 113 RBI, .387 BA, .539 Slg. in 2000 to 8 HR, 71 RBI, .350 BA, .457 Slg. in 2001 after all. But we can agree that Ichiro had an amazing MLB debut despite the drop-off, right?
And even assuming the less talented league and smaller-parks arguments are valid, I suspect you'd be hard pressed to name one AAA journeyman who has/had those kind of career numbers and didn't produce in the majors. Godzilla's the real deal IMO and I hope he gets the chance to prove it in the majors someday soon.
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
[ Author: Guest: Diamondback | Posted: Nov 30, 2001 7:39 PM
]
> If there is indeed a gap in the quality of play, a
> straight comparison of statistics is of limited
> value. The contention that Godzilla would hit 50 in
> the U.S. is somewhat more helpful. But please keep in
> mind that the U.S. minor leagues have lots of guys
> who -- despite hitting 30 homers a year at AAA --
> aren't capable of producing at that level in the
> majors.
>
> I don't know if the minors have 'lots' of career
> minor leaguers capable of hitting 30 homers per year
> in AAA, but I understand your point.
Yep, you're absolutely right. We could count the guys capable of 30 on our fingers. To say "lots," I should have cut it to 20. Sorry 'bout that. d
> Hideki Matsui is a special talent, however; his
> career power numbers are in line with Sammy Sosa's,
> Jeff Bagwell's and Barry Bonds'.
>
> 162-game average
> Matsui: 35 HR, 112 RBI, .300 BA, .540 Slg. (9
> seasons)
> Sosa: 42 HR, 116 RBI, .277 BA, .542 Slg. (13
> seasons)
> Bagwell: 35 HR, 121 RBI, .303 BA, .554 Slg. (11
> seasons)
> Bonds: 40 HR, 109 RBI, .292 BA, .585 Slg. (16
> seasons)
Thanks. This is helpful. Batting average is a pretty useless stat, though -- personally, I prefer OBP. For instance, Bagwell posted only a .288 BA this season, but his OBP was .397 (14 points better than Ichiro's). Bonds' OBP was .515! We should also note that Sosa only joined the league's elite within the last 4 or 5 years, when he learned the value of taking a walk.
> Sure, his monster stats might not directly translate.
> Ichiro's numbers (again adjusted to 162 games)
> dropped from 19 HR, 113 RBI, .387 BA, .539 Slg. in
> 2000 to 8 HR, 71 RBI, .350 BA, .457 Slg. in 2001
> after all. But we can agree that Ichiro had an
> amazing MLB debut despite the drop-off, right?
Definitely. I would love to have Ichiro on my team. His walk rate went to hell in a hand basket this season, though, compared to what it had been in Japan.
Anyway, I wonder if a 10% drop in BA & a 15% drop in Slg. (Ichiro's results) is a reasonable expectation for Godzilla & others. If so, then a rough guess at Godzilla's MLB numbers would be .270 BA & .460 Slg. Which is a little short of Devon White or Dante Bichette in '01. Not very impressive unless he also draws 120 walks a year, but I don't know where to find his NPB walk totals.
OTOH, Shinjo's .278 BA & .491 Slg. ('00 in NPB) translated into .268 BA (-4%) & .405 Slg. (-18%) in MLB. If Godzilla follows this curve, it would put him at .288 BA & .443 Slg. -- roughly equal to Scott Brosius' '01 season (which is much less power than people will expect from him).
So I certainly don't know, and one season is not enough to draw any real conclusions from.
> And even assuming the less talented league and
> smaller-parks arguments are valid, I suspect you'd be
> hard pressed to name one AAA journeyman who has/had
> those kind of career numbers and didn't produce in
> the majors. Godzilla's the real deal IMO and I hope
> he gets the chance to prove it in the majors someday
> soon.
I hope so, too. The Steve Bilko types (AAA journeymen) rarely get the opportunity to do more than pinch-hit if they do get to the majors. And the younger guys who tear up AAA with these kinds of numbers -- think Pat Burrell or Aramis Ramirez -- are generally given time to work through their problems once they reach the major league level. Japanese stars who are brought over probably won't be given the same latitude, due to the age & salary differences. If Godzilla comes to the U.S & hits like Scott Brosius, a lot of people will be very disappointed.
> straight comparison of statistics is of limited
> value. The contention that Godzilla would hit 50 in
> the U.S. is somewhat more helpful. But please keep in
> mind that the U.S. minor leagues have lots of guys
> who -- despite hitting 30 homers a year at AAA --
> aren't capable of producing at that level in the
> majors.
>
> I don't know if the minors have 'lots' of career
> minor leaguers capable of hitting 30 homers per year
> in AAA, but I understand your point.
Yep, you're absolutely right. We could count the guys capable of 30 on our fingers. To say "lots," I should have cut it to 20. Sorry 'bout that. d
> Hideki Matsui is a special talent, however; his
> career power numbers are in line with Sammy Sosa's,
> Jeff Bagwell's and Barry Bonds'.
>
> 162-game average
> Matsui: 35 HR, 112 RBI, .300 BA, .540 Slg. (9
> seasons)
> Sosa: 42 HR, 116 RBI, .277 BA, .542 Slg. (13
> seasons)
> Bagwell: 35 HR, 121 RBI, .303 BA, .554 Slg. (11
> seasons)
> Bonds: 40 HR, 109 RBI, .292 BA, .585 Slg. (16
> seasons)
Thanks. This is helpful. Batting average is a pretty useless stat, though -- personally, I prefer OBP. For instance, Bagwell posted only a .288 BA this season, but his OBP was .397 (14 points better than Ichiro's). Bonds' OBP was .515! We should also note that Sosa only joined the league's elite within the last 4 or 5 years, when he learned the value of taking a walk.
> Sure, his monster stats might not directly translate.
> Ichiro's numbers (again adjusted to 162 games)
> dropped from 19 HR, 113 RBI, .387 BA, .539 Slg. in
> 2000 to 8 HR, 71 RBI, .350 BA, .457 Slg. in 2001
> after all. But we can agree that Ichiro had an
> amazing MLB debut despite the drop-off, right?
Definitely. I would love to have Ichiro on my team. His walk rate went to hell in a hand basket this season, though, compared to what it had been in Japan.
Anyway, I wonder if a 10% drop in BA & a 15% drop in Slg. (Ichiro's results) is a reasonable expectation for Godzilla & others. If so, then a rough guess at Godzilla's MLB numbers would be .270 BA & .460 Slg. Which is a little short of Devon White or Dante Bichette in '01. Not very impressive unless he also draws 120 walks a year, but I don't know where to find his NPB walk totals.
OTOH, Shinjo's .278 BA & .491 Slg. ('00 in NPB) translated into .268 BA (-4%) & .405 Slg. (-18%) in MLB. If Godzilla follows this curve, it would put him at .288 BA & .443 Slg. -- roughly equal to Scott Brosius' '01 season (which is much less power than people will expect from him).
So I certainly don't know, and one season is not enough to draw any real conclusions from.
> And even assuming the less talented league and
> smaller-parks arguments are valid, I suspect you'd be
> hard pressed to name one AAA journeyman who has/had
> those kind of career numbers and didn't produce in
> the majors. Godzilla's the real deal IMO and I hope
> he gets the chance to prove it in the majors someday
> soon.
I hope so, too. The Steve Bilko types (AAA journeymen) rarely get the opportunity to do more than pinch-hit if they do get to the majors. And the younger guys who tear up AAA with these kinds of numbers -- think Pat Burrell or Aramis Ramirez -- are generally given time to work through their problems once they reach the major league level. Japanese stars who are brought over probably won't be given the same latitude, due to the age & salary differences. If Godzilla comes to the U.S & hits like Scott Brosius, a lot of people will be very disappointed.
Godzilla's Walks
[ Author: westbaystars | Posted: Nov 30, 2001 10:16 PM
| YBS Fan
]
With thanks to Albright-san for posting the 2001 stats, here are Matsui's yearly bases on balls/games:
1993: 17/56
1994: 57/130
1995: 62/131
1996: 71/130
1997: 100/135*
1998: 104/135*
1999: 93/135
2000: 106/135*
2001: 120/140
* denotes most walks in league.
As you can see, Matsui has been steadily getting more patient at the plate. Any coincidence that he won his first Batting Title this past season?
1993: 17/56
1994: 57/130
1995: 62/131
1996: 71/130
1997: 100/135*
1998: 104/135*
1999: 93/135
2000: 106/135*
2001: 120/140
* denotes most walks in league.
As you can see, Matsui has been steadily getting more patient at the plate. Any coincidence that he won his first Batting Title this past season?
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Dec 1, 2001 12:32 AM
| HT Fan
]
Thanks. This is helpful. Batting average is a pretty useless stat, though -- personally, I prefer OBP. For instance, Bagwell posted only a .288 BA this season, but his OBP was .397 (14 points better than Ichiro's). Bonds' OBP was .515!
I wouldn't call BA useless, but I prefer OBP too.
Hideki's OBP last season was 0.463, which would've been good enough for 2nd in the NL behind Bonds and ahead of Walker and Sosa. (BTW, Bagwell's OBP was 15 points better than Biggio's. Comparing a slugger to a leadoff man isn't very fair.)
Unfortunately, I don't have enough data (missing sac's, HP's, etc.) to figure out Matsui's lifetime OBP average, but I can break it down year by year and include Slg. and OPS.
1993 0.296 OBP, 0.451 Slg., 0.747 OPS
1994 0.370 OBP, 0.475 Slg., 0.845 OPS
1995 0.363 OBP, 0.481 Slg., 0.844 OPS
1996 0.401 OBP, 0.622 Slg., 1.023 OPS
1997 0.424 OBP, 0.564 Slg., 0.988 OPS
1998 0.424 OBP, 0.563 Slg., 0.987 OPS
1999 0.420 OBP, 0.631 Slg., 1.051 OPS
2000 0.438 OBP, 0.654 Slg., 1.092 OPS
2001 0.463 OBP, 0.617 Slg., 1.080 OPS
Definitely. I would love to have Ichiro on my team. His walk rate went to hell in a hand basket this season, though, compared to what it had been in Japan.
True enough. Keep in mind that Ichiro was a 6-time batting champion in 2000 who (I think) batted 3rd. In the states, he was a rookie who batted 1st. Odds are pitchers challenged Ichiro a lot more in 2001 than in 2000.
Anyway, I wonder if a 10% drop in BA & a 15% drop in Slg. (Ichiro's results) is a reasonable expectation for Godzilla & others. If so, then a rough guess at Godzilla's MLB numbers would be .270 BA & .460 Slg. Which is a little short of Devon White or Dante Bichette in '01. Not very impressive unless he also draws 120 walks a year, but I don't know where to find his NPB walk totals.
OTOH, Shinjo's .278 BA & .491 Slg. ('00 in NPB) translated into .268 BA (-4%) & .405 Slg. (-18%) in MLB. If Godzilla follows this curve, it would put him at .288 BA & .443 Slg. -- roughly equal to Scott Brosius' '01 season (which is much less power than people will expect from him).
Over the past three seasons, Godzilla has averaged 0.318 BA, 47 HR, 121 RBI, and 0.634 SLG (again, adjusted to 162 games and I don't have an OBP figure available), which would have him batting between 0.286 and 0.305 and slugging between 0.525 and 0.556 using your calculations. Bagwell batted 0.288 and slugged 0.568 last year.
So I certainly don't know, and one season is not enough to draw any real conclusions from.
Agreed, but I'd be more than willing to gamble; the Cubs sure could use him in left. =)
I wouldn't call BA useless, but I prefer OBP too.
Hideki's OBP last season was 0.463, which would've been good enough for 2nd in the NL behind Bonds and ahead of Walker and Sosa. (BTW, Bagwell's OBP was 15 points better than Biggio's. Comparing a slugger to a leadoff man isn't very fair.)
Unfortunately, I don't have enough data (missing sac's, HP's, etc.) to figure out Matsui's lifetime OBP average, but I can break it down year by year and include Slg. and OPS.
1993 0.296 OBP, 0.451 Slg., 0.747 OPS
1994 0.370 OBP, 0.475 Slg., 0.845 OPS
1995 0.363 OBP, 0.481 Slg., 0.844 OPS
1996 0.401 OBP, 0.622 Slg., 1.023 OPS
1997 0.424 OBP, 0.564 Slg., 0.988 OPS
1998 0.424 OBP, 0.563 Slg., 0.987 OPS
1999 0.420 OBP, 0.631 Slg., 1.051 OPS
2000 0.438 OBP, 0.654 Slg., 1.092 OPS
2001 0.463 OBP, 0.617 Slg., 1.080 OPS
Definitely. I would love to have Ichiro on my team. His walk rate went to hell in a hand basket this season, though, compared to what it had been in Japan.
True enough. Keep in mind that Ichiro was a 6-time batting champion in 2000 who (I think) batted 3rd. In the states, he was a rookie who batted 1st. Odds are pitchers challenged Ichiro a lot more in 2001 than in 2000.
Anyway, I wonder if a 10% drop in BA & a 15% drop in Slg. (Ichiro's results) is a reasonable expectation for Godzilla & others. If so, then a rough guess at Godzilla's MLB numbers would be .270 BA & .460 Slg. Which is a little short of Devon White or Dante Bichette in '01. Not very impressive unless he also draws 120 walks a year, but I don't know where to find his NPB walk totals.
OTOH, Shinjo's .278 BA & .491 Slg. ('00 in NPB) translated into .268 BA (-4%) & .405 Slg. (-18%) in MLB. If Godzilla follows this curve, it would put him at .288 BA & .443 Slg. -- roughly equal to Scott Brosius' '01 season (which is much less power than people will expect from him).
Over the past three seasons, Godzilla has averaged 0.318 BA, 47 HR, 121 RBI, and 0.634 SLG (again, adjusted to 162 games and I don't have an OBP figure available), which would have him batting between 0.286 and 0.305 and slugging between 0.525 and 0.556 using your calculations. Bagwell batted 0.288 and slugged 0.568 last year.
So I certainly don't know, and one season is not enough to draw any real conclusions from.
Agreed, but I'd be more than willing to gamble; the Cubs sure could use him in left. =)
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
[ Author: Guest: Diamondback | Posted: Dec 1, 2001 8:11 PM
]
> I wouldn't call BA useless, but I prefer OBP too.
>
> Hideki's OBP last season was 0.463, which would've
> been good enough for 2nd in the NL behind Bonds and
> ahead of Walker and Sosa. (BTW, Bagwell's OBP was 15
> points better than Biggio's. Comparing a slugger to a
> leadoff man isn't very fair.)
Well, BA doesn't tell us anything that OBP doesn't (IMHO). But without OBP for reference, BA doesn't tell us much of anything. As you note, Godzilla's OBP is outstanding.
I don't know that it's not fair to compare a slugger's OBP to a leadoff man's. Bagwell would make a better leadoff man than Biggio, it seems to me. Bags is a much better hitter -- only the fact that he can't play 2B keeps him from being a much better player.
> Definitely. I would love to have Ichiro on my
> team. His walk rate went to hell in a hand basket
> this season, though, compared to what it had been in
> Japan.
>
> True enough. Keep in mind that Ichiro was a 6-time
> batting champion in 2000 who (I think) batted 3rd. In
> the states, he was a rookie who batted 1st. Odds are
> pitchers challenged Ichiro a lot more in 2001 than in
> 2000.
Certainly true, at least during the first half. It's not surprising to me that Ichiro drew fewer walks, but -- for the purpose of evaluating the potential impact of Matsui & others -- I'm concerned by the fall of his BB/SO ratio. He walked less & struck out more once he got here, which would seem to speak to the difference in the quality of pitching.
> Over the past three seasons, Godzilla has averaged
> 0.318 BA, 47 HR, 121 RBI, and 0.634 SLG (again,
> adjusted to 162 games and I don't have an OBP figure
> available), which would have him batting between
> 0.286 and 0.305 and slugging between 0.525 and 0.556
> using your calculations. Bagwell batted 0.288 and
> slugged 0.568 last year.
Yep, and another look (slightly more rigorous, and spelled out in another post) indicated about the same -- even with the numbers adjusted down for MLB pitching. Thanks for helping me see the light. And I appreciate the stats.
> So I certainly don't know, and one season is not
> enough to draw any real conclusions from.
>
> Agreed, but I'd be more than willing to gamble; the
> Cubs sure could use him in left. =)
They could indeed. So could many others, I expect. My D-Backs already have a pretty fair left fielder, though. d Does Godzilla have enough arm for right?
>
> Hideki's OBP last season was 0.463, which would've
> been good enough for 2nd in the NL behind Bonds and
> ahead of Walker and Sosa. (BTW, Bagwell's OBP was 15
> points better than Biggio's. Comparing a slugger to a
> leadoff man isn't very fair.)
Well, BA doesn't tell us anything that OBP doesn't (IMHO). But without OBP for reference, BA doesn't tell us much of anything. As you note, Godzilla's OBP is outstanding.
I don't know that it's not fair to compare a slugger's OBP to a leadoff man's. Bagwell would make a better leadoff man than Biggio, it seems to me. Bags is a much better hitter -- only the fact that he can't play 2B keeps him from being a much better player.
> Definitely. I would love to have Ichiro on my
> team. His walk rate went to hell in a hand basket
> this season, though, compared to what it had been in
> Japan.
>
> True enough. Keep in mind that Ichiro was a 6-time
> batting champion in 2000 who (I think) batted 3rd. In
> the states, he was a rookie who batted 1st. Odds are
> pitchers challenged Ichiro a lot more in 2001 than in
> 2000.
Certainly true, at least during the first half. It's not surprising to me that Ichiro drew fewer walks, but -- for the purpose of evaluating the potential impact of Matsui & others -- I'm concerned by the fall of his BB/SO ratio. He walked less & struck out more once he got here, which would seem to speak to the difference in the quality of pitching.
> Over the past three seasons, Godzilla has averaged
> 0.318 BA, 47 HR, 121 RBI, and 0.634 SLG (again,
> adjusted to 162 games and I don't have an OBP figure
> available), which would have him batting between
> 0.286 and 0.305 and slugging between 0.525 and 0.556
> using your calculations. Bagwell batted 0.288 and
> slugged 0.568 last year.
Yep, and another look (slightly more rigorous, and spelled out in another post) indicated about the same -- even with the numbers adjusted down for MLB pitching. Thanks for helping me see the light. And I appreciate the stats.
> So I certainly don't know, and one season is not
> enough to draw any real conclusions from.
>
> Agreed, but I'd be more than willing to gamble; the
> Cubs sure could use him in left. =)
They could indeed. So could many others, I expect. My D-Backs already have a pretty fair left fielder, though. d
Does Godzilla have enough arm for right?Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Dec 2, 2001 5:45 AM
| HT Fan
]
I don't know that it's not fair to compare a slugger's OBP to a leadoff man's.
I was trying to suggest that sluggers (3rd, 4th & 5th hitters) tend to get pitched around and walked a lot more than leadoff men, giving them a natural advantage in OBP.
Bagwell would make a better leadoff man than Biggio, it seems to me. Bags is a much better hitter -- only the fact that he can't play 2B keeps him from being a much better player.
No doubt Bags is a better hitter, but a better leadoff man? I can't agree. His power would be wasted at the top of order and his runs batted in would suffer too without Biggio setting the table in front of him.
Does Godzilla have enough arm for right?
Not sure. As another poster pointed out, he plays CF for the Giants so I imagine he'd be more than adequate defensively in either left or right.
I was trying to suggest that sluggers (3rd, 4th & 5th hitters) tend to get pitched around and walked a lot more than leadoff men, giving them a natural advantage in OBP.
Bagwell would make a better leadoff man than Biggio, it seems to me. Bags is a much better hitter -- only the fact that he can't play 2B keeps him from being a much better player.
No doubt Bags is a better hitter, but a better leadoff man? I can't agree. His power would be wasted at the top of order and his runs batted in would suffer too without Biggio setting the table in front of him.
Does Godzilla have enough arm for right?
Not sure. As another poster pointed out, he plays CF for the Giants so I imagine he'd be more than adequate defensively in either left or right.
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
[ Author: CFiJ | Posted: Dec 6, 2001 10:30 AM
]
> Certainly true, at least during the first half. It's
> not surprising to me that Ichiro drew fewer walks,
> but -- for the purpose of evaluating the potential
> impact of Matsui & others -- I'm concerned by the
> fall of his BB/SO ratio. He walked less & struck out
> more once he got here, which would seem to speak to
> the difference in the quality of pitching.
I disagree. What we're seeing here in Ichiro's BB/SO numbers is less a probably difference in pitching quality and more Ichiro having to make adjustments. Many everyday players have difficulty switching from, say, the NL to the AL because they don't know the pitchers and catchers. This problem was compounded for Ichiro because, with the exception of Nomo, he'd never seen any of these guys before, had to get used to a new (varying) strike zone, and also had to get to the know the umpires.
In Japan, Ichiro had his reputation as a top hitter; consequently, he most likely got the benefit of the doubt from umpires on borderline pitches. In the US, he had no such reputation. Also, he consistently did not get calls on checked swings. In Japan, given his reputation as a player with great bat control, the umps probably gave him the benefit of the doubt on checked swings. Not so in the Majors.
Also, I believe Ichiro went up hacking this year more than in his years in Japan. Why? He didn't trust the umpires. He has much said so before the season began. He had prepared before crossing over by imagining a wide MLB strike zone for himself in games where Orix had a comfortable lead. But when he came over, MLB attempted to get umpires to call a more textbook zone. What happened was that the strike zone changed wildly from day to day; this umpire is high, this umpire is low, this umpire changes his zone by the count, etc. Now Ichiro has to contend with this in addition to learning pitchers' and catchers' tendencies. So I think Ichiro knew he could give himself a wide zone, and went up intending to put the ball in play and take his chances with his speed, rather than try and draw a walk under difficult circumstances. His walk numbers in Japan were never particularly high, but his numbers this year were incredibly low, even for him. You don't just forget how to take a walk. I seriously feel that there was a slight change in Ichiro's usual approach.
The fact that he hit lead-off rather than clean-up also screws his NPB vs. MLB stats.
This is all certainly conjecture and speculation. But using Ichiro's stats as an indicator for how other Japanese players might do strikes me as next to useless. There are just far too many variables to make the statistics sound.
> not surprising to me that Ichiro drew fewer walks,
> but -- for the purpose of evaluating the potential
> impact of Matsui & others -- I'm concerned by the
> fall of his BB/SO ratio. He walked less & struck out
> more once he got here, which would seem to speak to
> the difference in the quality of pitching.
I disagree. What we're seeing here in Ichiro's BB/SO numbers is less a probably difference in pitching quality and more Ichiro having to make adjustments. Many everyday players have difficulty switching from, say, the NL to the AL because they don't know the pitchers and catchers. This problem was compounded for Ichiro because, with the exception of Nomo, he'd never seen any of these guys before, had to get used to a new (varying) strike zone, and also had to get to the know the umpires.
In Japan, Ichiro had his reputation as a top hitter; consequently, he most likely got the benefit of the doubt from umpires on borderline pitches. In the US, he had no such reputation. Also, he consistently did not get calls on checked swings. In Japan, given his reputation as a player with great bat control, the umps probably gave him the benefit of the doubt on checked swings. Not so in the Majors.
Also, I believe Ichiro went up hacking this year more than in his years in Japan. Why? He didn't trust the umpires. He has much said so before the season began. He had prepared before crossing over by imagining a wide MLB strike zone for himself in games where Orix had a comfortable lead. But when he came over, MLB attempted to get umpires to call a more textbook zone. What happened was that the strike zone changed wildly from day to day; this umpire is high, this umpire is low, this umpire changes his zone by the count, etc. Now Ichiro has to contend with this in addition to learning pitchers' and catchers' tendencies. So I think Ichiro knew he could give himself a wide zone, and went up intending to put the ball in play and take his chances with his speed, rather than try and draw a walk under difficult circumstances. His walk numbers in Japan were never particularly high, but his numbers this year were incredibly low, even for him. You don't just forget how to take a walk. I seriously feel that there was a slight change in Ichiro's usual approach.
The fact that he hit lead-off rather than clean-up also screws his NPB vs. MLB stats.
This is all certainly conjecture and speculation. But using Ichiro's stats as an indicator for how other Japanese players might do strikes me as next to useless. There are just far too many variables to make the statistics sound.
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Dec 1, 2001 12:52 AM
| HT Fan
]
Correction, Matsui's Slg. range would be 0.520 to 0.539 using Diamondback's calcs.
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
[ Author: Guest: Diamondback | Posted: Dec 1, 2001 7:50 PM
]
Thanks again, 1908. Godzilla's patience is very impressive. In that light, I decided to do another quick & dirty projection for Ichiro's '01 season & each of the Matsui's for next year -- this time using the most recent three seasons as a baseline, rather than last year alone (or the full career). The MLB projections are downgraded by the adjustment factor calculated from Ichiro's '01 season (which could well be off by 5-10% either way).
OBP SLG
Suzuki, Ichiro
proj. NPB '01 434 545
actual MLB '01 377 457
adj. factor .868 .839
Matsui, Hideki
proj. NPB '02 447 631
proj. MLB '02 388 529
Matsui, Kazuo
proj. NPB '02 375 512
proj. MLB '02 325 430
Two tentative conclusions I reach from this exercise:
1) Godzilla is indeed one hell of a hitter -- he's no Bagwell, but I'd rather have his bat in my lineup than Ichiro's, and
2) Little Matsui -- unless he can avoid the drop-off that Ichiro experienced -- doesn't look like a middle of the order hitter (or a good leadoff man, either). This projection looks like Orlando Cabrera. That's nothing to be ashamed of, but it wouldn't earn him many All-Star votes.
OBP SLG
Suzuki, Ichiro
proj. NPB '01 434 545
actual MLB '01 377 457
adj. factor .868 .839
Matsui, Hideki
proj. NPB '02 447 631
proj. MLB '02 388 529
Matsui, Kazuo
proj. NPB '02 375 512
proj. MLB '02 325 430
Two tentative conclusions I reach from this exercise:
1) Godzilla is indeed one hell of a hitter -- he's no Bagwell, but I'd rather have his bat in my lineup than Ichiro's, and
2) Little Matsui -- unless he can avoid the drop-off that Ichiro experienced -- doesn't look like a middle of the order hitter (or a good leadoff man, either). This projection looks like Orlando Cabrera. That's nothing to be ashamed of, but it wouldn't earn him many All-Star votes.
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
[ Author: Dusanh | Posted: Dec 2, 2001 1:25 AM
]
Another thing I'm not sure if you're aware of is that Hideki Matsui is the center fielder for the Giants, and a former gold glover at that. While it is likely that major league teams will put him in either of the corner outfields, he's stats would be incredible for a center fielder wouldn't it. 
One comment I have on OPS vs. batting avg is that base hit drives in runs while walks doesn't...which is why I'd like to see Ichiro batting 3rd or even 2nd instead of first. Just look at the ALCS this year, the Yankees walked him with RISP every chance he got...now if he's your most feared hitter with RISP...you put him in lead-off...? That doesn't make sense to me.
I remember hearing baseball announcers talking about Ichiro as if he is by far the greatest player in Japan and no one else comes close, however, from a OPS & SLG stand point, there are better players than Ichiro isn't there? I mean, just consider Obasawara or Matsunaka or Nakamura or even Kokubo...heck, why limit it to Japanese players only, I think guys like Tuffy Rhodes, Alex Cabrera, Roberto Petagine, or Bobby Rose (who actually had a higher batting avg than Ichiro in CL one year), Can all be excellent hitters in MLB if Ichiro can from a stats point of view.
My opinion on the difference between Japanese and MLB pitching is that there isn't much difference except for the avg. velocity. There are only a handful of pitchers who can throw 95 mph in Japan, and you don't see guys who can throw 90 mph on a daily basis either, but there are full of pitchers like Jamie Moyer (who won 20 games this year). So the only doubt I had on Ichiro when he came over was if he can hit 90+ mph fast balls consistently. Once he proved he can do that, I knew he'd be fine because everything else in MLB he's seen in Japan. (control pitchers, fans, level of scouting, etc...)
One comment I have on OPS vs. batting avg is that base hit drives in runs while walks doesn't...which is why I'd like to see Ichiro batting 3rd or even 2nd instead of first. Just look at the ALCS this year, the Yankees walked him with RISP every chance he got...now if he's your most feared hitter with RISP...you put him in lead-off...? That doesn't make sense to me.
I remember hearing baseball announcers talking about Ichiro as if he is by far the greatest player in Japan and no one else comes close, however, from a OPS & SLG stand point, there are better players than Ichiro isn't there? I mean, just consider Obasawara or Matsunaka or Nakamura or even Kokubo...heck, why limit it to Japanese players only, I think guys like Tuffy Rhodes, Alex Cabrera, Roberto Petagine, or Bobby Rose (who actually had a higher batting avg than Ichiro in CL one year), Can all be excellent hitters in MLB if Ichiro can from a stats point of view.
My opinion on the difference between Japanese and MLB pitching is that there isn't much difference except for the avg. velocity. There are only a handful of pitchers who can throw 95 mph in Japan, and you don't see guys who can throw 90 mph on a daily basis either, but there are full of pitchers like Jamie Moyer (who won 20 games this year). So the only doubt I had on Ichiro when he came over was if he can hit 90+ mph fast balls consistently. Once he proved he can do that, I knew he'd be fine because everything else in MLB he's seen in Japan. (control pitchers, fans, level of scouting, etc...)
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
[ Author: 1908 | Posted: Dec 2, 2001 6:08 AM
| HT Fan
]
Godzilla is indeed one hell of a hitter -- he's no Bagwell...
Not yet, but Bagwell's 33 (born: 5/27/68) and Hideki's 27 (born: 6/12/74) -- plenty of time to catch up. =)
Not yet, but Bagwell's 33 (born: 5/27/68) and Hideki's 27 (born: 6/12/74) -- plenty of time to catch up. =)
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
[ Author: Guest: 6yu76i8 | Posted: Apr 13, 2004 12:07 AM
]
I think Ichiro is good, but he is too weak form the Major Leagues.
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
[ Author: Guest | Posted: Apr 13, 2004 12:16 AM
]
I think most Japanese players understand the game more than some Americans.
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
[ Author: Guest: Jeff Matlock | Posted: Apr 13, 2004 10:57 AM
]
The older I get, the less I read of statistical analysis and the more I (try) to rely on impressions. Let me tell you, the single greatest performance I have ever seen, in 40 years of observing Stateside ball, was when Suzuki-san and his Mariners came to Tropicana Field early in the 2001 season. The guy could not be put out at the plate, he could not be put out on the basepaths, and nobody could hit and/or run well enough to embarrass him defensively. A World War II veteran extremely wary of things Japanese turned to me -- and neither of us said a word. Didn't need to.
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
[ Author: Guest: George Steinbrennernot | Posted: Apr 14, 2004 4:43 AM
]
I think most anyone understands [that] strength has only a part to do with baseball success.
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
[ Author: Guest: Guest | Posted: Apr 14, 2004 2:06 PM
]
Baseball in America and Baseball in Japan are two different things. As far as rules and plays are concerened, things that are common practice in Japan would never be done in the States, unless you like being hit by a baseball often. The difference is Japan mainly is making decisions at the wrong times, according to the school of thought on American Baseball. There are too many mind games in Japan. Overall though, it's just very different. The energy, the managing, the fans, etc.
As far as players and how good they are, baseball players in Japan are about equal with MLB players. People do not view it totally the same yet, but statistics don't lie. It is common for many guys to go back and forth from the two countries throughout their careers. Money is money, whether it's in Yen or Dollars.
I'm American by the way, and yes, Mr. Baseball, the movie, is a GREAT depiction of Japanese Baseball. I agree with the guy that said it's the most accurate movie so far. I laughed a lot during that movie. It's funny how right on it is.
As far as players and how good they are, baseball players in Japan are about equal with MLB players. People do not view it totally the same yet, but statistics don't lie. It is common for many guys to go back and forth from the two countries throughout their careers. Money is money, whether it's in Yen or Dollars.
I'm American by the way, and yes, Mr. Baseball, the movie, is a GREAT depiction of Japanese Baseball. I agree with the guy that said it's the most accurate movie so far. I laughed a lot during that movie. It's funny how right on it is.
Re: Baseball America's Two Cents
[ Author: Guest: Jeff Matlock | Posted: Apr 15, 2004 9:26 AM
]
"Mr. Baseball" is discussed at a different location on this site. In his new book "Meaning of Ichiro," Robert Whiting quotes Bobby Valentine as calling this movie an embarrassment. Perhaps this is yet another reason to disdain the Marines' kantoku?
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Some rights reserved.
For those who don't subscribe, let me fill you in on what is says in my own words, with some of my own commentary.
The opening of the article talks about how nobody took the idea of a Japanese position player making the jump to the Majors seriously. But after Ichiro's 8th consecutive batting title and reviving interest in the lead off spot "in this homer-happy era," big league scouts aren't laughing any more. They're out to find the next Ichiro.
The meat of the article is a review of four position players and a pitcher who may be crossing the Pacific this off season. Those of you who are regulars here already know them, Yakult's Ishii Kazuhisa (the pitcher), Big and Little Matsui (Hideki and Kazuo), Daiei's Matsunaka, and Kintetsu's Nakamura.
Ishii Kazuhisa
Starting off with Yakult's ace left-handed hurler, Ishii Kazuhisa, he is compared to David Wells. The article calls Ishii "pudgy," but I don't know where that came from. He's not short and fat at all! The author mentions that the Swallows-Indians working relationship gives the Clevland based team an "inside track" on the Swallow ace, but also mentions that his wife would prefer the West Coast.
Ishii's shoulder trouble is mentioned, as is that he "often tries to get six days' rest." I've mentioned before that he seems to throw his arm out every other year, so I would expect something better than this year's "off year" numbers of 12-6, 3.37 ERA with 151 strike outs next season. As for the 6 days' rest, well, it's the standard practice for pretty much all the teams to have a six to seven day rotation. I don't know that he "tries to get" it. The "pudgy" and "tries to get six days' rest" comments cast a shadow of doubt on the homework that went into article for me.
Matsui Hideki
Next is the Giants' Matsui Hideki, or Godzilla. The article even made a comment that, like when he comes up at Tokyo Dome, playing the Godzilla movie theme music on the organ would delight fans anywhere. That should interest any market droid.
Former BayStar Sasaki was quoted as saying, "His power is beyond everyone else's over there." However, the article also questions whether or not his power wouldn't translate into doubles in the U.S. Personally, I don't think so. Matsui's home runs are huge! It's probably the same elitest nay-sayers who didn't think Ichiro had a chance at winning a batting title.
The article made mention that Matsui hasn't said straight out that he wants to move over to the Majors, but like the Japanese tabloids, reads such a statement into his two-time refusal of a multi-year deal with Yomiuri. I still don't see the Giants posting him this year, and don't think he'll make enough waves to force them. But then, I thought the same about Ichiro - and was I wrong there.
Matsui Kazuo
Next is the Lions' Matsui Kazuo, or "Little Matsui" as Baker-kantoku named him after the Nichi-Bei games in 1996 when the two Matsuis left a big impression of power (Hideki) and speed (Kazuo). Mention is made that the switch hitting lead off hitter is considered to be the best all around player in Japan since Ichiro left, and I would have to agree with that statement.
One scout would want to covert him to second, while another admires his "instincts to steal bases."
The article then mentions that Matsui has been saying that he has no interest in jumping the pond apparently because he'd like some say in what team he goes to, which he won't have with the posting system. It will be interesting to see if Tsutsumi-owner goes ahead and posts him anyway this off season.
Matsunaka Nobuhiko
Next is Daiei's first baseman Matsunaka Nobuhiko. Last season's MVP with a .312 batting average, 33 home runs, and 106 RBIs, he bettered that total this season going .334, 36, and 122. At 27 years old, one scout commented, "I'd be completely surprised if he doesn't excel in the United States." The main bottle neck mentioned on him is that first basemen are often expected to hit for power, so "[c]alling him a less defensive David Segui and Travis Lee isn't exactly a complement."
The article continues pointing out that Matsunaka won't be a free agent until 2007, so it's a little early for speculation. But the tabloids and many members of the Pro Yakyu mailing list enjoy pointing out Daiei's financial problems. Following their logic, it makes since to post him while he's still in his prime.
Nakamura Norihiro
Finally, there's the big 200 pound Buffaloe Nakamura Norihiro. He hit #4 for the Pacific League champion Kintetsu Buffaloes, behind Tuffy Rhodes with whom the two combined for 101 home runs (Rhodes 55, Nakamura 46). Rhodes even commented, "Nori should give (the Majors) a try if he has the chance. He could be a regular on several clubs."
Other scouts weren't so kind, calling him a "Double-A player with potental." His strike outs and fielding reflexes are put into question.
Nakamura, like Little Matsui, down plays the possibility of playing in the Majors, supossedly to wait another year when he becomes a free agent and can chose on his own.
The remainder of the article was the standard "attendance is down sharply" drool which I've spoken out against a number of times. (I hadn't yet seen the Central League attendance, but the Pacific League was up!) Then there are some quotes from Sasaki and Shinjo encouraging players to challenge themselves at the next level.
All in all, this was one of the better and more enjoyable articles from the U.S. media that I'd read this year.