2002 Pacific League Predictions
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Re: 2002 Pacific League Predictions
[ Author: Guest: rithifruss | Posted: Mar 26, 2002 3:57 PM
]
Well, since everyone seems to be commenting on the Central League, I shall try and make some of my Pacific League (being a Fukuoka boy and thus a Hawks fan) bringing ups to make a valid predicitons.
1. Hawks
2. Buffaloes
3. Lions
4. Lotte
5. Nippon Ham
6. Orix
Not any shocking or off the wall predictions, mostly because the Pacific League race is always really tight up to the end. There was a point last year when the first four teams had a ligitimate shot at the pennant in SEPTEMBER.
Yes, this may be a bit biased, but it seems to me that the Hawks seem to be the only team that's relatively stable. They have relatively decent pitching with veteran Wakatabe, and good years last year from Tanoue and Hoshino. Plus, Yamada (the top prospect for the Hawks last year) may be coming into his own this year. The Hawks have also stabilised their bullpen by adding Taira Suzuki, a pretty good relief pitcher from the brief Orix winning teams. Their hitting is just fine with power and average from Matsunaka, and four guys who hit 30 home runs last year (Johjima, Iguchi, Kokubo, Matsunaka, though EVERYONE'S total was up from years before).
The Buffaloes beat teams very simply, they score more runs (and it usually took a lot of runs to beat the other team). Even with their poor pitching staff they won the pennant last year, so you can't rule them out. Rhodes and Nakamura will most likely be the heart and soul again for the team, but last year all hitters had an espeically productive season, like Ohmura, who shattered his home run total by hitting over 10 for the first time in his career. However it's their league worst pitching that could prove deadly.
The Lions seem to have the opposite problem. Famous for their pitching, they can keep the scores low. The big problem is they only have three hitters: Cabrera, McClain, and Matsui. Granted these three are all top players, but their line-up does not seem stable. If any of the big three are injured or in a slump, the Lions have slightly bigger problem producing.
It breaks my heart to put Lotte 4th, since a Lotte game is so much fun to watch because the fans and the atmosphere are so unique at Chiba. They've got one REALLY GOOD starting pitcher in Kuroki (who tore up the league at the beginning and kind of tailed off) and a good reliever in Kobayashi, but not many people in between. Bolick and May can provide the power, and Kosaka and Morozumi could come back as the one and two slot hitters, but it doesn't seem to look good.
I give the Fighers fifth place simply because they seem to be the better of the worst. They lost Kataoka, but still have some of their old potentials, like Tanaka (and Nishiura, who was supposed to be a huge hot shot but never seemed to take off). Their pitching continues to be weak, which one could blame on those short power alleys of the Tokyo Dome, but they don't seem to have a top notch starter. But hey, the Buffaloes finished 6th in 2000, so you never know.
I couldn't find a reason to put Orix up very high in the standings because they have a new manager, last year they lost Ichiro, a big psychological effect, and now they've lost Arias to the popular Kansai team Hanshin. My opinion is they'll never get money if they keep playing in Green Stadium. Yes, it's a pretty stadium, but it's a pain to get to. I say we need a pro team on Shikoku. Matsuyama has a nice stadium.
1. Hawks
2. Buffaloes
3. Lions
4. Lotte
5. Nippon Ham
6. Orix
Not any shocking or off the wall predictions, mostly because the Pacific League race is always really tight up to the end. There was a point last year when the first four teams had a ligitimate shot at the pennant in SEPTEMBER.
Yes, this may be a bit biased, but it seems to me that the Hawks seem to be the only team that's relatively stable. They have relatively decent pitching with veteran Wakatabe, and good years last year from Tanoue and Hoshino. Plus, Yamada (the top prospect for the Hawks last year) may be coming into his own this year. The Hawks have also stabilised their bullpen by adding Taira Suzuki, a pretty good relief pitcher from the brief Orix winning teams. Their hitting is just fine with power and average from Matsunaka, and four guys who hit 30 home runs last year (Johjima, Iguchi, Kokubo, Matsunaka, though EVERYONE'S total was up from years before).
The Buffaloes beat teams very simply, they score more runs (and it usually took a lot of runs to beat the other team). Even with their poor pitching staff they won the pennant last year, so you can't rule them out. Rhodes and Nakamura will most likely be the heart and soul again for the team, but last year all hitters had an espeically productive season, like Ohmura, who shattered his home run total by hitting over 10 for the first time in his career. However it's their league worst pitching that could prove deadly.
The Lions seem to have the opposite problem. Famous for their pitching, they can keep the scores low. The big problem is they only have three hitters: Cabrera, McClain, and Matsui. Granted these three are all top players, but their line-up does not seem stable. If any of the big three are injured or in a slump, the Lions have slightly bigger problem producing.
It breaks my heart to put Lotte 4th, since a Lotte game is so much fun to watch because the fans and the atmosphere are so unique at Chiba. They've got one REALLY GOOD starting pitcher in Kuroki (who tore up the league at the beginning and kind of tailed off) and a good reliever in Kobayashi, but not many people in between. Bolick and May can provide the power, and Kosaka and Morozumi could come back as the one and two slot hitters, but it doesn't seem to look good.
I give the Fighers fifth place simply because they seem to be the better of the worst. They lost Kataoka, but still have some of their old potentials, like Tanaka (and Nishiura, who was supposed to be a huge hot shot but never seemed to take off). Their pitching continues to be weak, which one could blame on those short power alleys of the Tokyo Dome, but they don't seem to have a top notch starter. But hey, the Buffaloes finished 6th in 2000, so you never know.
I couldn't find a reason to put Orix up very high in the standings because they have a new manager, last year they lost Ichiro, a big psychological effect, and now they've lost Arias to the popular Kansai team Hanshin. My opinion is they'll never get money if they keep playing in Green Stadium. Yes, it's a pretty stadium, but it's a pain to get to. I say we need a pro team on Shikoku. Matsuyama has a nice stadium.
Re: 2002 Pacific League Predictions
[ Author: Guest: Gary Garland | Posted: Mar 28, 2002 3:51 PM
]
Now that we're talking Pacific League, there just aren't any TEAMS that I really like at all outside of the Daiei Hawks. The Hawks even have what could be the sleeper gaijin aquisition in Morgan Burkhart, who won't put up big homer numbers, but is proving to be a good all around hitter who is willing to take a walk every now and again.
Where the Hawks fall down is their mediocre pitching staff. Their gaijin hurler, Carlos Castillo, proved to be a joke and I expect his release any day now. But due to the soundness of their ballclub in just about every phase of the game save on the mound, Daiei could have this race over in the first two months of the season if you go by what's on paper. Yet, the Hawks have had some problems scoring runs and Iguchi has been disappointing with the bat this spring. So if Daiei doesn't put the rest of the teams away early, this could be a mass battle for mediocrity.
There are about ten PLAYERS to keep an eye on, but the other five teams as a whole don't have much to recommend them. In spite of that, here is how it breaks down:
Hawks: Matsunaka, if he stays healthy, is going to have another huge year. The addition of Burkhart gives them some integrity in the lower part of the order. Hiroki Kokubo is a battler and will have another 30 homers plus season. Rodney Pedraza has been historically a pretty sound closer. Their pitching has been just good enough in a league with not much of it, so they should win it easily.
Seibu Lions: There are some pretty good athletes on this team and they probably have the best pitching in the league. Good on manager Ihara for telling Matsui that he will only have to think about being the leadoff hitter rather than whimsically shuttling between the 1-3 holes under Higashio. Ihara should also be relatively good for the overused Matsuzaka's arm.
One thing working for the Lions is that Daiei hasn't taken a season series from them in nearly a quarter of a century. But I doubt it will be enough of a difference to give the kings of Tokorozawa a real pennant shot.
HOWEVER, Cabrera had a horrid spring and McClain may be Seibu's answer to Chris Donnels (good first year, bad second year, so-so tools), as he hit about a buck fifty this spring. Generally, a gaijin who racks up a lot of homers with a low batting average (think Micah Franklin and Rick Lancelotti), as McClain did (in the .260 range) is gone after his second year. Bye bye Scott. Cabrera is on the cusp of being the biggest second season bust for a foreign player in Japanese history. I mean, he did little this spring except his two homers. There have also been concerns about him adjusting to the higher strike zone. And let's not even mention his defense. Now that pitchers have seemingly adjusted to him, it will be interesting to see if Cabrera can go back to good hitting fundamentals if he hopes to produce this season.
Shinji Mori has plus stuff in the bullpen and should put up superior numbers in the closer role. With what I expect to be lower run production this season, pitching is going to write the tale of Seibu's season. At 22, Matsuzaka has a lot of weight on his young shoulders as he gropes for mechanical consistency.
Kintetsu: Pitching is demonstrably better this spring than last, but that's not saying much. This is a team with a lot of Darren Olivers and Rick Hellings on it. So, as the Texas Rangers of Japanese baseball, they have to outslug the opposition. In a normal year, these guys are a second division team, but the bottom of the league is just so bad either offensively (Orix and Lotte) or just all around (Nippon Ham) that the run producing capability of Norihiro Nakamura and Tuffy Rhodes gives them a slight edge. And if Nigel Wilson is healthy and returns to form (the latter is likely, the former is dicey) you will see a lot of runs coming from the 3-4-5 guys in the order, though not much from elsewhere.
Orix: Scott Sheldon is a mediocrity here as he was in MLB. Fernando Seguignol will hit in this league, just not for 30 homers. The problem with Fernando is that he is the worst defensive gaijin first baseman to land in Japan since Dick "Dr. Strangeglove" Stuart. He had five errors this spring, which projects to 35 over the course of a full season. Yikes!
Yoshitomo Tani gives Orix a superior leadoff man (Orix could always post him if it needs cash to MLB, where good, true, leadoff men are scarce) and someone who is likely to win a batting title after setting the all time single season doubles record in 2001.
Ikuro Katsuragi, the guy who replaced Ichiro, is looking more like the answer to a trivia question than a stellar performer in his own right. The So Taguchi defection has to play on the minds of Blue Wave players, as well, with each putting pressure on himself to try to compensate for that loss. That is a formula for failure. Again, athletically, this is a very interesting team. But you can't steal first base and running a sub six second 50 meters won't help you get the ball over the fence. Their pitching is just okay and Chiba Lotte's offense sucks, so they will edge out the Marines by a couple of games for fourth.
Chiba Lotte Marines: Frank Bolick is off to a slow start, as he was last season. He'll be okay, though. Makoto Kosaka has to have a career year at the plate so that he can steal for Chiba to have a shot at the "A" class, but he hasn't shown enough this spring that he is preparing to do that. Derrick May is doing nicely this spring and should hit in the .280 range with 20 or so homers. Kazuya Fukuura will also have another outstanding season at the plate. But once you get past these three guys, it's rough sledding.
Pitching-wise, Kosuke Kato, though young, will do more than decently. Nathan Minchey, after getting destroyed his first couple of spring outings, pitched a blinder his last time out, so he might be solid for them, too. Their number one draft choice, lefty Takashi Tanaka, will be used as a situational guy to get lefties out, becoming the Marines answer to Seibu's Takehiro Hashimoto. But the team lost Tomohiro Kuroki for the first half of the season and "Sunday Shingo" Ono is going to begin the season in the minors since he has been getting hammered. He may also have an arm problem.
Nippon Ham: With the loss of both Kataoka and Wilson, the pressure for Michihiro Ogasawara and Sherman Obando to produce will be ramped up significantly. And Obando had a terrible spring. They've gotten a little more offense out of catcher Sanematsu than was expected this spring. If it continues he could have a nice little year, though he's no Kenji Johjima. D.T. Cromer, a failed prospect from the Reds organization, hasn't given any definite signals as to how he is going to do. He's been coming on, but I'm not sure that he will leave all that much of an impression on Fighters fans.
Seigo Fujishima, 32, had his best spring ever and will be a starter after a decade of being a role player. So he will be watched to see if he was a 30 day superstar or someone who has found a second life. But it is not possible to exaggerate what the loss of Kataoka does to this team.
Pitchingwise, there is no there there. Manager Oshima was talking to the press as if he was intending to put new gaijin purchase Chris Seelbach into the rotation, but yet Seelbach had a mere two appearances this spring. This is just a forgettable team. They are like the late 60's Washington Senators. One big star (Frank Howard in Washington's case, Ogasawara in Nippon Ham's), and a below average supporting cast. That they play in Tokyo Dome, the same homeground as the Giants, is a cruel twist of fate to be sure.
Where the Hawks fall down is their mediocre pitching staff. Their gaijin hurler, Carlos Castillo, proved to be a joke and I expect his release any day now. But due to the soundness of their ballclub in just about every phase of the game save on the mound, Daiei could have this race over in the first two months of the season if you go by what's on paper. Yet, the Hawks have had some problems scoring runs and Iguchi has been disappointing with the bat this spring. So if Daiei doesn't put the rest of the teams away early, this could be a mass battle for mediocrity.
There are about ten PLAYERS to keep an eye on, but the other five teams as a whole don't have much to recommend them. In spite of that, here is how it breaks down:
Hawks: Matsunaka, if he stays healthy, is going to have another huge year. The addition of Burkhart gives them some integrity in the lower part of the order. Hiroki Kokubo is a battler and will have another 30 homers plus season. Rodney Pedraza has been historically a pretty sound closer. Their pitching has been just good enough in a league with not much of it, so they should win it easily.
Seibu Lions: There are some pretty good athletes on this team and they probably have the best pitching in the league. Good on manager Ihara for telling Matsui that he will only have to think about being the leadoff hitter rather than whimsically shuttling between the 1-3 holes under Higashio. Ihara should also be relatively good for the overused Matsuzaka's arm.
One thing working for the Lions is that Daiei hasn't taken a season series from them in nearly a quarter of a century. But I doubt it will be enough of a difference to give the kings of Tokorozawa a real pennant shot.
HOWEVER, Cabrera had a horrid spring and McClain may be Seibu's answer to Chris Donnels (good first year, bad second year, so-so tools), as he hit about a buck fifty this spring. Generally, a gaijin who racks up a lot of homers with a low batting average (think Micah Franklin and Rick Lancelotti), as McClain did (in the .260 range) is gone after his second year. Bye bye Scott. Cabrera is on the cusp of being the biggest second season bust for a foreign player in Japanese history. I mean, he did little this spring except his two homers. There have also been concerns about him adjusting to the higher strike zone. And let's not even mention his defense. Now that pitchers have seemingly adjusted to him, it will be interesting to see if Cabrera can go back to good hitting fundamentals if he hopes to produce this season.
Shinji Mori has plus stuff in the bullpen and should put up superior numbers in the closer role. With what I expect to be lower run production this season, pitching is going to write the tale of Seibu's season. At 22, Matsuzaka has a lot of weight on his young shoulders as he gropes for mechanical consistency.
Kintetsu: Pitching is demonstrably better this spring than last, but that's not saying much. This is a team with a lot of Darren Olivers and Rick Hellings on it. So, as the Texas Rangers of Japanese baseball, they have to outslug the opposition. In a normal year, these guys are a second division team, but the bottom of the league is just so bad either offensively (Orix and Lotte) or just all around (Nippon Ham) that the run producing capability of Norihiro Nakamura and Tuffy Rhodes gives them a slight edge. And if Nigel Wilson is healthy and returns to form (the latter is likely, the former is dicey) you will see a lot of runs coming from the 3-4-5 guys in the order, though not much from elsewhere.
Orix: Scott Sheldon is a mediocrity here as he was in MLB. Fernando Seguignol will hit in this league, just not for 30 homers. The problem with Fernando is that he is the worst defensive gaijin first baseman to land in Japan since Dick "Dr. Strangeglove" Stuart. He had five errors this spring, which projects to 35 over the course of a full season. Yikes!
Yoshitomo Tani gives Orix a superior leadoff man (Orix could always post him if it needs cash to MLB, where good, true, leadoff men are scarce) and someone who is likely to win a batting title after setting the all time single season doubles record in 2001.
Ikuro Katsuragi, the guy who replaced Ichiro, is looking more like the answer to a trivia question than a stellar performer in his own right. The So Taguchi defection has to play on the minds of Blue Wave players, as well, with each putting pressure on himself to try to compensate for that loss. That is a formula for failure. Again, athletically, this is a very interesting team. But you can't steal first base and running a sub six second 50 meters won't help you get the ball over the fence. Their pitching is just okay and Chiba Lotte's offense sucks, so they will edge out the Marines by a couple of games for fourth.
Chiba Lotte Marines: Frank Bolick is off to a slow start, as he was last season. He'll be okay, though. Makoto Kosaka has to have a career year at the plate so that he can steal for Chiba to have a shot at the "A" class, but he hasn't shown enough this spring that he is preparing to do that. Derrick May is doing nicely this spring and should hit in the .280 range with 20 or so homers. Kazuya Fukuura will also have another outstanding season at the plate. But once you get past these three guys, it's rough sledding.
Pitching-wise, Kosuke Kato, though young, will do more than decently. Nathan Minchey, after getting destroyed his first couple of spring outings, pitched a blinder his last time out, so he might be solid for them, too. Their number one draft choice, lefty Takashi Tanaka, will be used as a situational guy to get lefties out, becoming the Marines answer to Seibu's Takehiro Hashimoto. But the team lost Tomohiro Kuroki for the first half of the season and "Sunday Shingo" Ono is going to begin the season in the minors since he has been getting hammered. He may also have an arm problem.
Nippon Ham: With the loss of both Kataoka and Wilson, the pressure for Michihiro Ogasawara and Sherman Obando to produce will be ramped up significantly. And Obando had a terrible spring. They've gotten a little more offense out of catcher Sanematsu than was expected this spring. If it continues he could have a nice little year, though he's no Kenji Johjima. D.T. Cromer, a failed prospect from the Reds organization, hasn't given any definite signals as to how he is going to do. He's been coming on, but I'm not sure that he will leave all that much of an impression on Fighters fans.
Seigo Fujishima, 32, had his best spring ever and will be a starter after a decade of being a role player. So he will be watched to see if he was a 30 day superstar or someone who has found a second life. But it is not possible to exaggerate what the loss of Kataoka does to this team.
Pitchingwise, there is no there there. Manager Oshima was talking to the press as if he was intending to put new gaijin purchase Chris Seelbach into the rotation, but yet Seelbach had a mere two appearances this spring. This is just a forgettable team. They are like the late 60's Washington Senators. One big star (Frank Howard in Washington's case, Ogasawara in Nippon Ham's), and a below average supporting cast. That they play in Tokyo Dome, the same homeground as the Giants, is a cruel twist of fate to be sure.
Re: 2002 Pacific League Predictions
[ Author: Guest: BUTTERFLYGIRL525 | Posted: Jun 17, 2002 11:34 PM
]
I believe you should go back and check out the stats again on Carlos Castillo. He is proving you wrong. Why don't you look at another website. www.npb-bis.com. It is more informative than yours.
Re: 2002 Pacific League Predictions
[ Author: westbaystars | Posted: Jun 18, 2002 3:18 PM
| YBS Fan
]
I had a hard time trying to find your reference. On NPB-BIS (the official stats site for Pro Yakyu), I looked at the Hawks' Pitchers and didn't notice Castillo. I guess you're referring to the Hawks 2-gun pitching stats which shows Castillo to be 4 and 1, with 1 save an an ERA of 1.18 in 38 innings pitched.
A better site for stats is TBS' Team Pages (warning: in Japanese only). The Hawks' page as of June 18 shows that Castillo has yet to pitch for the top team. It is, however, undenyable that he is pitching well for the farm team and is probably deserving of a shot at the top team.
Please keep in mind the context of the above critique on Castillo. It was written by a fan at the end of spring training. (The date on the message you replied to was March 28.) Carlos had a poor spring, and it was the opinion of one fan that he wouldn't make the cut. And he didn't. Every indication is that he's working hard on the farm team, and is deserving of another chance.
I would really like to know how NPB-BIS is more informative than this site. (Whoops. You touched on a nerve with me on that one.) They don't allow for feedback from fans. And they only started putting out more information on the Web after I and others started doing it on our own. Go back to 1995 and I was the only one putting weekly stats of the leaders out. NPB-BIS (then IBM-BIS) started the following year. I had my Player Meikan up on the Web in 1996, they didn't have anything even remotely close until this year. They get paid millions of yen to keep track of Pro Yakyu stats, I get paid the infrequent "thanks" that those that read this site send me. (I actually think that those "thanks" are worth a great deal more.) I'm working on a way to keep the data more up to date, but it takes time to enter. And I do like to go out and play in the park with the kids on weekends.
Please let me know how this site loses to NBP-BIS. I can't promise to implement something right away, but I will add any suggestions to my TODO list. This site is for fans, by fans. If there's something you want to see, you need to let me know, on-line or off. And I have too much pride to even consider losing to NPB-BIS.
A better site for stats is TBS' Team Pages (warning: in Japanese only). The Hawks' page as of June 18 shows that Castillo has yet to pitch for the top team. It is, however, undenyable that he is pitching well for the farm team and is probably deserving of a shot at the top team.
Please keep in mind the context of the above critique on Castillo. It was written by a fan at the end of spring training. (The date on the message you replied to was March 28.) Carlos had a poor spring, and it was the opinion of one fan that he wouldn't make the cut. And he didn't. Every indication is that he's working hard on the farm team, and is deserving of another chance.
I would really like to know how NPB-BIS is more informative than this site. (Whoops. You touched on a nerve with me on that one.) They don't allow for feedback from fans. And they only started putting out more information on the Web after I and others started doing it on our own. Go back to 1995 and I was the only one putting weekly stats of the leaders out. NPB-BIS (then IBM-BIS) started the following year. I had my Player Meikan up on the Web in 1996, they didn't have anything even remotely close until this year. They get paid millions of yen to keep track of Pro Yakyu stats, I get paid the infrequent "thanks" that those that read this site send me. (I actually think that those "thanks" are worth a great deal more.) I'm working on a way to keep the data more up to date, but it takes time to enter. And I do like to go out and play in the park with the kids on weekends.
Please let me know how this site loses to NBP-BIS. I can't promise to implement something right away, but I will add any suggestions to my TODO list. This site is for fans, by fans. If there's something you want to see, you need to let me know, on-line or off. And I have too much pride to even consider losing to NPB-BIS.
Re: 2002 Pacific League Predictions
[ Author: Guest: Tom Buske | Posted: Jun 19, 2002 4:50 AM
]
Westbay-san, I do not think this person was taking a
cheap shot at you, I think they were taking a cheap shot at Gary.
Why cheap? Well, both you and Gary do this for the love of the game and not monetary renumeration so it is quite sorry in my opinion to be slamming on either of you.
Also, Gary's site, your site and NPB all cover different aspects of the game. He provides daily play by play analysis of all games. I liken it to reading the daily sports page. This is very helpful to me since I would not otherwise be able to get this kind of analysis in North Carolina. Your site is a great resource for forums, news, and many other features. I have used NPB-BIS when I wanted to get some quick, up-to-date stats. But for someone to say that NPB-BIS is more informative than either of your sites is not only comparing apples to oranges to a certain degree, but just plain dumb.
Some people would rather curse the darkness than light a candle, I guess.
Myself, I appreciate the hard work and effort that both of you put in to provide people throughout the world with up-to-date info and news on Japanese Baeball.
cheap shot at you, I think they were taking a cheap shot at Gary.
Why cheap? Well, both you and Gary do this for the love of the game and not monetary renumeration so it is quite sorry in my opinion to be slamming on either of you.
Also, Gary's site, your site and NPB all cover different aspects of the game. He provides daily play by play analysis of all games. I liken it to reading the daily sports page. This is very helpful to me since I would not otherwise be able to get this kind of analysis in North Carolina. Your site is a great resource for forums, news, and many other features. I have used NPB-BIS when I wanted to get some quick, up-to-date stats. But for someone to say that NPB-BIS is more informative than either of your sites is not only comparing apples to oranges to a certain degree, but just plain dumb.
Some people would rather curse the darkness than light a candle, I guess.
Myself, I appreciate the hard work and effort that both of you put in to provide people throughout the world with up-to-date info and news on Japanese Baeball.
Re: 2002 Pacific League Predictions
[ Author: hillsy | Posted: Jun 20, 2002 4:23 AM
| CD Fan
]
I find it amazing that noone bats an eye when the so called "expert" prognosticators are incorrect on a regular basis and they're PAID to do that. Garland-san and Westbay-san do this in their spare time. It's ludicrous to think that someone should be held to a prediction made before the season starts.
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Lions
Buffaloes
Marines
BlueWave
Fighters
5
4
0
0
0
8
5
0
1
0
8
10
1
0
0
0
1
11
7
2
0
1
5
5
10
0
0
4
8
9
102
94
51
44
35
Points are calculated 6 for 1st, 5 for 2nd, etc.
There is a huge difference between A-class and B-class (the top and bottom halves). Nobody ranks Daiei, Seibu, or Kintetsu in last, and nobody ranks Lotte, Orix, or Nippon Ham first.
Again, though, I'm going with my heart. I'd really like to see an underdog make it, so I'm going to choose Lotte for first place. (Although, I think that Nippon Ham might have a better chance.) After that, I'll go with a slightly more conservative order, but putting the Lions down in B-class. So starting from 2nd I'll say Daiei, Nippon Ham, Seibu, Kintetsu, and Orix.
As much as I'd like to see A-class and B-class turned upside down from the ShuBe predictions, Daiei is still going to be hard to beat.
I think that the loss of Kataoka to Hanshin in free agency is going to turn out to be just what they needed to get some fresh blood and a new way of thinking in. Nobody seems to think they're better than 5th or 6th, so there's little pressure on them. I'd really like to see them upset the establishment and finish in A-class.
Seibu is a first class ball club that has finally ousted Higashio-kantoku. I don't know what it was about him, but he really annoyed me. So on the one hand, changing managers is helping Seibu. On the other hand, Mr. Third Base Coach, Ihara-san, has taken over the role of skipper, but even Ihara himself says that he wishes to be known as the third base coach first, kantoku second. The first choice for manager was catcher Itoh, but he refused, saying that he still wants to play, but not do both. So Seibu is going to spend the year with an anti-power struggle as Itoh and Ihara battle it out to disclaim the team leadership role.
Kintetsu had a great year last year with Rhodes, Nakamura, and several others really coming through when it counted. However, they seriously lacked in pitching. It's highly unlikely that their batting will sustain them like that two years in a row, and they still lack good left handed pitchers.
Finally, Orix rose from the ashes of the 1995 earthquake to the higest heights. But then, went down hill from there. Even Ichiro couldn't keep the team in the race while he was here. The team needs to be rebuilt, and the skippers is as good a place as any to start. So, in come Ishige-kantoku. One of the stars of the powerful Seibu Lions of the 1980's and early '90's, he, Akiyama, and Kudoh all moved to Fukuoka as free agents. It was my understanding back then that he made the move to be groomed to take over the team after Oh-kantoku's contract ran out. It didn't happen. Ishige seemed to be too impatient, and quit as 2-gun kantoku after one year. I've heared that he was one of the leaders of the victorious Lions in thier hey day, but he just doesn't strike me as much of a leader. Kind of like Higashio-kantoku, there's something about him that bothers me - although I can't say what it is. I sincerely hope that he proves me wrong and is a great team leader. But at this point, I just don't see it.
So, what are your predictions?